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Thinking more about winter tyres after reading this from the Met Office today - is Yorkshire central? its northern England but central UK.

 

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Monday 19 Feb 2018 to Wednesday 28 Feb 2018:

Dry, sometimes bright weather and light winds will predominate in the UK throughout next week, with increasing amounts of overnight frost. Rain or drizzle and stronger winds are possible at times in northwestern areas. Temperatures at the start of next week will be around average for the time of year, and probably slightly above average in the north. However, there will be a trend toward colder weather by the end of the week and into the following week, as winds turn predominately easterly. Wintry showers may develop,with the potential for some significant snowfalls focused on southern, central or eastern areas. The location and intensity of any snowfall will be uncertain until much nearer the time.

UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Mar 2018 to Thursday 15 Mar 2018:

In first week of March, it is likely to stay cold with widespread overnight frost. There will be a greater chance than usual of easterly winds, which would bring very cold weather at times and the potential for some snowfall in eastern and even southern parts. Unusually, it will probably be driest in the northwest. In the second week of March there are indications that it may become more changeable and less cold, with the wettest weather and mildest temperatures likely to be in the south or the southwest of the UK.

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A friend's snowman has started to limbo all by itself.

Some pics from Todmorden

Guys - hope your doing well & enjoying the snow Good luck to all tonight !!!

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Well I came on Sunday with the family for 4 days we go home tomorrow, arrived later Sunday so just chilled in the cottage, then took the dog on a huge walk in the Forrest in Thornton, which was amazing and really sunny and cold, since then it hasnt stopped sleeting and it's utterly depressing because the Yorkshire culture is very much about getting out and about, so we went whitby yesterday, got utterly soaked to the bone, had lunch in a bistro, whilst we were there they had a power cut and we ate half of our food we ordered(because the Ovans stopped working) in pitch black! 

Today we went to robbing hood bay, which was nice, very cold but nice on the beach with the dog, then got soaked once again! Anyway, bit disappointed in the weather I have saw no snow what so ever even 400m asl it was stil sleet! 

But other than that had a lovely time, good food and lots of booze! 

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Well today was never on. Yesterday was on but needed heavy rain which we never got. Bit concerned about the beebs forecast possibly more inaccurate due to the change in source. Looking like SSW is going to be a flop with spring in the reliable time with no clear pattern shown afterwards.

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UK Outlook for Monday 19 Feb 2018 to Wednesday 28 Feb 2018:

Dry, sometimes bright weather and light winds will predominate in the UK throughout next week, with increasing amounts of overnight frost. Rain or drizzle and stronger winds are possible at times in northwestern areas. Temperatures at the start of next week will be around average for the time of year, and probably slightly above average in the north. However, there will be a trend toward colder weather by the end of the week and into the following week, as winds turn predominately easterly. Wintry showers may develop,with the potential for some significant snowfalls focused on southern, central or eastern areas. The location and intensity of any snowfall will be uncertain until much nearer the time.

 

This part looks major fail already. 19th to 24th are looking very mild. Hopefully will change by Saturday.

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30 minutes ago, The PIT said:

UK Outlook for Monday 19 Feb 2018 to Wednesday 28 Feb 2018:

Dry, sometimes bright weather and light winds will predominate in the UK throughout next week, with increasing amounts of overnight frost. Rain or drizzle and stronger winds are possible at times in northwestern areas. Temperatures at the start of next week will be around average for the time of year, and probably slightly above average in the north. However, there will be a trend toward colder weather by the end of the week and into the following week, as winds turn predominately easterly. Wintry showers may develop,with the potential for some significant snowfalls focused on southern, central or eastern areas. The location and intensity of any snowfall will be uncertain until much nearer the time.

 

This part looks major fail already. 19th to 24th are looking very mild. Hopefully will change by Saturday.

Very mild?!  Come on I have not seen a forecast where temperatures for our region have even hit double figures in the reliable time frame (perhaps Sunday into Monday) and even that is not very mild in my book.  My local 7 day forecast for example;

20180214_182700.thumb.png.05cd58d2eabaab7b78c0ee05aa2487d8.png

Next week looks like starting settled and then gradually getting colder from the East as per the vast majority of the output with the exception of the GFS op but even that run gets colder in the end and certainly not very mild.

I think the Met Office outlook is spot on based on the output as it stands.  Milder in to the weekend before a gradual cool down next week and then likely very cold weather by the time we hit next weekend (24th / 25th).  Don't rule out the cold coming in earlier though as shown by some of the lesser models and GFS ens this afternoon.

The Beast is still very much on track 7-10 days from now IMO.  :cold:

If there is no sign of any cold weather moving into the reliable timeframe by say Tuesday next week I will accept I am wrong and slope off back to the shadows to enjoy our mild Spring!  :rofl:

Edited by Kentish Snowman
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1 hour ago, The PIT said:

Yup mild 2c to 3c above normal. Some beast.

 

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Ahh but that run was one of the mildest within its suite and the charts shown are for prior to when the cold is expected to hit.  Time will tell as always though.

Dare I say more runs needed!

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6 hours ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Well I came on Sunday with the family for 4 days we go home tomorrow, arrived later Sunday so just chilled in the cottage, then took the dog on a huge walk in the Forrest in Thornton, which was amazing and really sunny and cold, since then it hasnt stopped sleeting and it's utterly depressing because the Yorkshire culture is very much about getting out and about, so we went whitby yesterday, got utterly soaked to the bone, had lunch in a bistro, whilst we were there they had a power cut and we ate half of our food we ordered(because the Ovans stopped working) in pitch black! 

Today we went to robbing hood bay, which was nice, very cold but nice on the beach with the dog, then got soaked once again! Anyway, bit disappointed in the weather I have saw no snow what so ever even 400m asl it was stil sleet! 

But other than that had a lovely time, good food and lots of booze! 

Should have gone up onto Goathland moor, it was snowing heavily up there when I drove over earlier today

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9 hours ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Ahh but that run was one of the mildest within its suite and the charts shown are for prior to when the cold is expected to hit.  Time will tell as always though.

Dare I say more runs needed!

Ahh so you're picking and choosing. Sadly the op runs one from the suites have been singing mostly from same song sheet for days. ECM as well.You can pick and choose all winter. At the moment from the op runs within the reliable time frame there isn't one run from the big three showing deep cold and hasn't been all week. The reliable time frame isn't T300 plus either.

Edited by The PIT
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1 hour ago, The PIT said:

Ahh so you're picking and choosing. Sadly the op runs one from the suites have been singing mostly from same song sheet for days. ECM as well.You can pick and choose all winter. At the moment from the op runs within the reliable time frame there isn't one run from the big three showing deep cold and hasn't been all week. The reliable time frame isn't T300 plus either.

I'm not getting into an argument here.  

You are entitled to your view and I am entitled to mine.  I have looked at the model runs this morning and I remain totally confident we will see deep cold from the East by or before the 25th.

ECM and GFS are still toying around with other ideas but the GFS gets there in the end as in any event yet another mild outlier within its suite.

Time will tell of course but I believe the UKMO output is the most similar to how I believe things will pan out.  :)

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Well @The PIT it looks like I will have to eat some humble pie this afternoon.  :)

For the first time in many days I am feeling a little despondent regarding our cold prospects for the end of next week despite the Meto's continued bullish outlook (for cold and snow) for the 6-15 day period.

I am not throwing the towel in for Winter yet as I cannot accept that Northern blocking will not show itself favourably at some point given the state of the Strat but it is looking increasingly likely that we will now have to endure a cold and miserable Spring rather than a bitter end to Winter given that this afternoon's runs are a real kick in the gonads for cold and snow lovers (short term anyway).

On a more positive note it looks like we will be able to enjoy some crisp sunny days as Winter draws to a close (today was rather pleasant in the sunshine).

Stay strong coldies our luck has to change at some point!  Let's hope for March 2013 the sequel!  :cold:

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28 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Well @The PIT it looks like I will have to eat some humble pie this afternoon.  :)

For the first time in many days I am feeling a little despondent regarding our cold prospects for the end of next week despite the Meto's continued bullish outlook (for cold and snow) for the 6-15 day period.

I am not throwing the towel in for Winter yet as I cannot accept that Northern blocking will not show itself favourably at some point given the state of the Strat but it is looking increasingly likely that we will now have to endure a cold and miserable Spring rather than a bitter end to Winter given that this afternoon's runs are a real kick in the gonads for cold and snow lovers (short term anyway).

On a more positive note it looks like we will be able to enjoy some crisp sunny days as Winter draws to a close (today was rather pleasant in the sunshine).

Stay strong coldies our luck has to change at some point!  Let's hope for March 2013 the sequel!  :cold:

I think you got caught up in the hype. Happens every year egged on by people who should know better presenting charts around the very end of the GFS as the ones that will verify. If they did then model verification would go out at lot further than five to six days. There is a very good reason why they don't because the scores would fall through the floor. Even though models have improved ukmo most of all I tend to stick as T96 as the time point where you can say it will happen if the jet is week maybe T120 and a stretch T144. Then from there to T240 trends and after that well really lala land.

Another good tip is when a setup is shown if never moves forward over a series of runs it is very unlikely to happen at all.

You can look at the assemblies but I recall looking at the gfs panels all showed a major storm bar one and the one was right. The op run did show the storm btw then ditched it next run. 

The question I've got why hasn't the stronger blocking happened. I read another wave is coming that should hit the vortex so perhaps we will get a cold march. I expect another bout of hysteria in the model thread if that occurs.

Fingers crossed the models suddenly drop a cold bombshell at T144 and move it forward it's happened before.

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And as we post the ECM has done what I said dropped a bomb at T120 will have to wait until the tomorrows morning run too see if it repeats it or drops it.

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11 minutes ago, The PIT said:

And as we post the ECM has done what I said dropped a bomb at T120 will have to wait until the tomorrows morning run too see if it repeats it or drops it.

Yes you couldn't make it up could you?!

Maybe my bullish cold forecast was correct after all?!  Reverse psychology at its best!  :rofl:

Yorkshire under a cold Easterly flow at T144 on the ECM (ahead of schedule)!

ECM0-144.thumb.gif.02c0a9958b7c0c7621f09459e0e6ecce.gif.e7217eaa7901d20fffdf086fde782e70.gif

In view of the ECM and meto mid range forecast I will pick the towel back up that I threw in earlier!  :D

Edited by Kentish Snowman
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2 hours ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Yes you couldn't make it up could you?!

Maybe my bullish cold forecast was correct after all?!  Reverse psychology at its best!  :rofl:

Yorkshire under a cold Easterly flow at T144 on the ECM (ahead of schedule)!

ECM0-144.thumb.gif.02c0a9958b7c0c7621f09459e0e6ecce.gif.e7217eaa7901d20fffdf086fde782e70.gif

In view of the ECM and meto mid range forecast I will pick the towel back up that I threw in earlier!  :D

Well the enxt test is gfs evening run still labeled pub run but no longer really comes out with crazy ideas of old. I think the real biggy is tomorrow mornings ECM. If it drops it we're are back to square one.

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21 hours ago, The PIT said:

Well the enxt test is gfs evening run still labeled pub run but no longer really comes out with crazy ideas of old. I think the real biggy is tomorrow mornings ECM. If it drops it we're are back to square one.

So it looks like I may have been right all along with my Easterly prediction from the 22nd onwards?!!  

Never in doubt!  :pardon:

As long as it doesn't all implode I would imagine our region will start to see some snow flurries as early as next Wednesday and gradually get colder and potentially snowier from there.

The Meto also seem to be fully on board with an extended cold spell as well so that is another positive!  :cold:

Edited by Kentish Snowman
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Cold still staying out of reach and shown to arrive by next Saturday by the GFS after Tuesday a steady cooling back down. Then the GFS shows a blink and you missed it cold snap. Anyway the way the models have dropped this doesn't install with much confidence of how cold it will get how long or even if the high pressure ends up in the right place. The ECm may show the cold arriving earlier. UKMO doesn't deliver much in the way of cold uppers just -4C so won't be particular cold. So all wait for the ECM.

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So then..its my birthday in a few weeks and now I have my own house I am finaly going to get a 'proper' weather station :) Cant wait, but thought id ask for some advice from you guys on here as im sure many of you have them, some I know for sure do @The PIT and @vizzy2004 for example. You both use Davis stuff?

I do read that they are the best, but its annoying you have to buy the data logger seperatly as others include it in the price/unit. Very cheeky! Also I hate the console, looks like something out of the 1970s lol, what posesed them with that? should be a lovely colour tablet nowadays...

Anyway, any insights or advice would be most appreciated, thanks :friends::good:

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16 hours ago, Winter Cold said:

So then..its my birthday in a few weeks and now I have my own house I am finaly going to get a 'proper' weather station :) Cant wait, but thought id ask for some advice from you guys on here as im sure many of you have them, some I know for sure do @The PIT and @vizzy2004 for example. You both use Davis stuff?

I do read that they are the best, but its annoying you have to buy the data logger seperatly as others include it in the price/unit. Very cheeky! Also I hate the console, looks like something out of the 1970s lol, what posesed them with that? should be a lovely colour tablet nowadays...

Anyway, any insights or advice would be most appreciated, thanks :friends::good:

Davis vp2 with the 24hr fan for me everyday. Wireless unless you want to lay out cables. I'm using the up rated temperature humidity sensor which works well but humidity seems to be a bit off for some reason and reads a bit high. Temperature matches the Stephenson screen 99% of the time once or twice the readings are slightly different for reasons unknown. I was going to go for a full digital setup in the Stephenson screen but the cost is too much. Davis used to have an issue with the usb and this was mainly due to the cable connection and not drivers. I would still say serial is better but then you've got an issue of getting serial to usb converter that works properly. I'm going to tape the usb connector up as the connectors on the earlier versions would wear out and the slightest tap or movement on the cable would disconnect the usb connection. 

The other downside to Davis is they are expensive and you need to know how to use a soldering iron due to the boards blowing the supercap. Still a problem to this day. I've got a stack spare caps and a few units will most likely or not need a new fitting. The problem again is design issue and you've got a cap rated at 2.7C across a 3V line so they will pop eventually. 

The anemometer is more reliable these days and last several years. The last failed due UV and the casing started cracking. Since the it's on the Chimney it's hard to replace but I've got an alternative home for next time it goes. 

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