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Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion


A.J

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Looks like going down to the wire this one and won't be certain for more southern areas of Yorkshire probably until the night before.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

I posted the below on the model thread

 

Looking at the ECM precipitation maps you can see snow is possible as far south as Bath 

 

5abcf422eb9db_wunder3.thumb.png.41388ae9a1d3de186e877c9d2ffff26c.png5abcf43a98883_wunder4.thumb.png.8de5169c63626b24d49834ab0443b861.png5abcf44cc6049_wunder2.thumb.png.83d8e05c844b0c3bed5312a7b772930c.png

 

As it pushes northwards it'll turn to rain on the southern extent, though looking at the ECM its looking 80/20 snow to rain so not bad. 

The boundary line between cold air runs across the central spine of Northern England, these areas likely to see snow throughout more especially to higher ground.

 

5abcf4abc660f_wunder1.thumb.png.88228091a7143327c4ac0b54421f8ec8.png

 

Timing is poor dependant on your location, southern areas look to get the snowfall at around early morning, perfect timing, could well be waking up to a covering of snow. Northern areas the snow pushes in during the afternoon.

What can't be underestimated is that unlike the last easterly ground temps will be cooler as we have had a consecutive run of cold nights, especially in the North.

From an IMBY perspective Leeds Bradford Airport meto forecast shows a few days of 0.c night temps, and three days of falling snow, so I'm not worried about ground temps.

 

lba.thumb.png.71f98c26c8320a77d15f6500649da0b6.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Ground temps are actually higher than the beast two 6.5C compared to 6C so will again readily melt from below. Whether is going to be as polluted is another matter. Moving on  if the GFS 06oz is right we will be going from Winter to Late spring in 24 hrs. From thick jumpers and Snow Shovels to T shirts. We shall see.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

12oz GFS sticks to a rapid switch to milder conditions however North Yorkshire will probably do alright out of this. South Yorkshire will see a brief wintry spell becoming rapidly confined to higher peaks before turning to rain there as the mild push continues. UKMO agrees with the rapid push north with it's 12oz run so the chances of a interesting bank holiday Bank Holiday Monday for South Yorkshire is declining.

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Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL

An improvement on Mondays forecast from this morning! Now 9 hours of heavy snow at 1c :cold:

snow2418.thumb.PNG.e77d21ed3f95aeaf2ff27e587d28e9a2.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
2 hours ago, Winter Cold said:

An improvement on Mondays forecast from this morning! Now 9 hours of heavy snow at 1c :cold:

snow2418.thumb.PNG.e77d21ed3f95aeaf2ff27e587d28e9a2.PNG

Seems to get better :)

Edited by blizzard81
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
2 hours ago, Winter Cold said:

An improvement on Mondays forecast from this morning! Now 9 hours of heavy snow at 1c :cold:

snow2418.thumb.PNG.e77d21ed3f95aeaf2ff27e587d28e9a2.PNG

It certainly gets better :)

Screenshot_20180329-232819.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

A shift from an all snow event on the ECM.

 

It's gonna turn to rain at some point but the 18z gfs shows the potential for snow from 9am all the way till 9pm, a snow day. And by time it turns to rain it'll be dark so I'm more than happy for that in April. 

 

The meto forecast however goes for snow starting at 4am Monday lasting up to 4am Tuesday a 24 hour snow event!!!!!

Edited by Cheese Rice
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
2 hours ago, Winter Cold said:

An improvement on Mondays forecast from this morning! Now 9 hours of heavy snow at 1c :cold:

snow2418.thumb.PNG.e77d21ed3f95aeaf2ff27e587d28e9a2.PNG

Highlights the dividing line quite well when you compare the meto forecasts. 

Hopefully a shift south for all of us

 

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Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
15 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

Highlights the dividing line quite well when you compare the meto forecasts. 

Hopefully a shift south for all of us

 

yeah it would be nice! Lets have one last snowy hurrah and then we can look forward to some nice weather hopefully :)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

The meto forecast has updated it now shows snow from 4am Monday to up to 12 noon Tuesday. 32 hours of snowfall.

Edited by Cheese Rice
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Should be good for north Yorkshire only a brief period of snow for us and a raid change to rain during the morning as we lose the cold uppers. A short event all in all pity the low pushes the mild air so quickly.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

One thing I haven't mentioned is that the heavier rainfall is transferring west. If this continues the rain won't be heavy enough to aid in evaporitive cooling so it will be a rain only event away from the peak district.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

Definitely a glass half empty kind of person lol.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
16 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

Definitely a glass half empty kind of person lol.

 

Good job I wasn't looking at John Holmes will it snow guide which away from the North and North East England bring us a flat zero. This has used me very well and is normally correct. Of course the predicted air conditions maybe different on the day. Conditions are more favorable tonight and tomorrow than on Monday. 

Edited by The PIT
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
18 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Good job I wasn't looking at John Holmes will it snow guide which away from the North and North East England bring us a flat zero. This has used me very well and is normally correct. Of course the predicted air conditions maybe different on the day. Conditions are more favorable tonight and tomorrow than on Monday. 

The caveat is that you put your faith in the GFS.

The ECM has the precipitation further east 

5abe3189c3e1d_wunder1.thumb.png.ab8a7dc2685895d737eef9dc2ac3c43f.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
55 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

The caveat is that you put your faith in the GFS.

The ECM has the precipitation further east 

5abe3189c3e1d_wunder1.thumb.png.ab8a7dc2685895d737eef9dc2ac3c43f.png

Well under netweather extra the gFS is the only source available. Even looking at Fax chart indicate that something is amiss with the 528 damn line far to north for us.

Try Johns guide yourself and see what you come up with

 

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Posted
  • Location: Garforth, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Snow, Thunder
  • Location: Garforth, Leeds 86m asl

Hmm the updated warning doesn't look good, I'm still in it... but only just! Please not a day of sleet and rain after the potential for all day snow! 

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Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL

just had a huge hail shower, they were easily pea sized!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

The current batch of precipitation has turned to snow in South West England so there is definitely some cold air about.

Edited by Cheese Rice
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Well under netweather extra the gFS is the only source available. Even looking at Fax chart indicate that something is amiss with the 528 damn line far to north for us.

Try Johns guide yourself and see what you come up with

 

Tbh I don't think that's the best guide in marginal situations their have been many examples where it snows under conditions that look less than possible, ofc many examples of rain.

Take now for instance in SW England, uppers of -2, DP forecast 3.c. Yet temperatures of 0.c and heavy snow. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Well in this case we don't even have -2C uppers. +2 uppers. I guess you went through it and it didn't give the answer you want. Sometimes it does go wrong but Monday looks more wet than white.

Conditions better tonight than on Monday. Maybe a surprise for some.

Edited by The PIT
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
45 minutes ago, Winter Cold said:

just had a huge hail shower, they were easily pea sized!

Good shower wasn't it. Pushing the rain totals up for one the wettest Marches we've recorded since 1955. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Gem and possibly UKMO provide a little hope for Monday. GFS drives a stake straight through the heart Next few runs are vital and hopefully the trend to a quick mild push are reversed.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

EURO4 for 6am Sunday has -8 uppers as far south as Birmingham covering the whole of Yorkshire

 

GFS for the same time frame has uppers of -4/-5. Getting the cold air south is an important step in the right direction.

 

The EURO4 already has the precipitation a fair bit further East than the 12z GFS and that's even with the eastwards correction we've seen on the latest GFS.

Hopefully the EURO4 when it updates continues this trend.

Edited by Cheese Rice
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