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beerandkebab

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Euro4's were showing it as snowing all the way deep into the Midlands, so Sheffield might get to join the party.

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Just being using john's guide and mostly it saying no I would say 90 to 10 in favour of rain for us. The right conditions are miles ahead of the front. 

 

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A bit snowy on the summit of Cross Fell this morning

 

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Hmm .. Arpege still saying wintry conditions , not exclusively for higher ground... i wonder if evaporative cooling might cone into play here 

.arpegeuk-1-35-0.png

 

Edited by bryan629
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Just moved to this area and updated my location, already looking much better for snow prospects!

 

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53 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

Just moved to this area and updated my location, already looking much better for snow prospects!

 

where have you moved from Paul :) 

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Looking at the setup I imagine most areas of the NE & Yorkshire are likely to at least see a wintry mix.

A little elevation is always going to help and I'd imagine a widespread covering above 200m or so. 

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Its still on at the moment! We shall just have to wait and see. @The PIT just looking at your station right now, temp of 2c and dew point of -0.9 would be perfect wouldnt it tomorrow? Should give us big flakes and fast settling snow.

Heres hoping the conditions remain favourable. Some graphics show rain to snow, even at elevation so boxing day 2014 springs to mind....similar event maybe

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Overnight run is better still very marginal though. Overnight temps much higher than I saw in earlier forecasts but they were never going to be as low as the beeb showed

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The Arpege is a little less bullish about the Eastern extent of snow.wintry mix this morning. Still really good to be talking of snow so early on, rather than gales and flooding. 

arpegeuk-1-28-0.pngarpegeuk-42-29-0.png

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The deciding factor will be how active the weather front is. Weaker than expected just rain heavy good chance of snow.

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Sitting here on the wild borders of Lanc's /yorks I never know which thread to post onto? maybe we should sub divide into Pennines? (lol) Anyhoo's i'm sure we'll have nowt in't valley bottoms but the Tops will sure look pretty by morning!!!

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not expecting anything here really, not enough elevation, sleet at best maybe.

cant say im bothered though, because its early November and the fact some in our region are going to be on lamp post watch is fantastic. 

Really cant wait for winter now :)

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I've dropped to 90m but i'm out in the sticks so the urban heat effect is near zero and i'm closer to the Pennines so i imagine i'll get heavier precipitation than i used to a little. 

I booked tomorrow off for the presidential election but this will be great too. 

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Couple of things to add..

A good indicator of potential will be to watch the surface wind reports as the front arrives, we want to see an easterly element as this indicates undercutting at the surface. Winds are forecast to develop a component from the east by about 6pm.

GFS0z has upgraded to all snow event from about 9pm (about 3 hours of rain to put up with but i'm in work until 9 anyway). 

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1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Sitting here on the wild borders of Lanc's /yorks I never know which thread to post onto? maybe we should sub divide into Pennines? (lol)

Agreed being almost on the border the weather here is very different to Linc's yet is the same as a lot in the Lanc's thread. Really the threads should be made up based on geography not on county borders.

 

Temp has risen here to 3c, and looking at the radar the front is already at the isle of man so need the temp to drop a bit in the next few hours.

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Typical the radar is acting up so difficult to get an idea how strong the front is. Tip use the original scaling much more reliable and easy to read

Edited by The PIT

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I think Leeds will do well out of this.  At least up at LBA .  

 

I'm in London so no snow for me :-(

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Paddington Bear used to trouble me. you will recall he saw his first ever snow the day after Bonfire night and I (as a child growing up around Manchester) used to feel it unrepresentative. Sure we'd wake up to soft hail on the ground and the occasional frost  but not snow. Well If it's white on the Tops tomorrow it'll be close enough for me to put that gripe to bed ( maybe some folk will be having their fires this Fri/Sat after attending an organised fore on bommy night proper?).

Well the high gloom is now over us and it feels a bit raw out there. If it has a struggle coming onshore ,and delays the onset of the precipitation, there could be some surprises for some in the morning!

Edited by Gray-Wolf

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MetO have removed my heavy snow symbols and replaced them with sleet, as i suspected would happen haha. 

 

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2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Couple of things to add..

A good indicator of potential will be to watch the surface wind reports as the front arrives, we want to see an easterly element as this indicates undercutting at the surface. Winds are forecast to develop a component from the east by about 6pm.

GFS0z has upgraded to all snow event from about 9pm (about 3 hours of rain to put up with but i'm in work until 9 anyway). 

I will be keeping a close tab on the SFC wind and the undercutting.  A very marginal set-up and the complexities in the forecasting of this event clear to see when analysing the latest GFS06Z ensemble suite with many of the perturbations in the pack deviating away from the mean.  The spread is loosely -4.35°C to -1.15°C with the operational sitting around the mean approximately half way.  Considering we are merely 6 hours prior to the onset of this event the large deviance in T850 spread shows the uncertainty in the precise evolution and tracking of the lows warm sector.  We are relying on the colder undercutting (the Easterly component) as you alluded too and of course precipitation intensity and longevity to help lower the 0°C isotherm closer to SFC.

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We're a quiet bunch considering we're looking at our first lamp post watch of the year? Are we just an industrious lot and stuck in work right now?

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3 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

We're a quiet bunch considering we're looking at our first lamp post watch of the year? Are we just an industrious lot and stuck in work right now?

Im treating it as a scared deer! Make too much noise and it will run away :rofl:

Ignore it and it will slowly edge closer haha. 

No...just don't want to get my hopes up, thats all 

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