Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

[Hull snow]

The charts are truely amazing at the min if anything close verifys the east side of the uk will be buried in snow this could be worse then 2010 anyone agree ?

[Light Without Heat]

1 hour ago, Hull snow said:

The charts are truely amazing at the min if anything close verifys the east side of the uk will be buried in snow this could be worse then 2010 anyone agree ?

2010 was epic ?

[reef]

2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Davis vp2 with the 24hr fan for me everyday. Wireless unless you want to lay out cables. I'm using the up rated temperature humidity sensor which works well but humidity seems to be a bit off for some reason and reads a bit high. Temperature matches the Stephenson screen 99% of the time once or twice the readings are slightly different for reasons unknown. I was going to go for a full digital setup in the Stephenson screen but the cost is too much. Davis used to have an issue with the usb and this was mainly due to the cable connection and not drivers. I would still say serial is better but then you've got an issue of getting serial to usb converter that works properly. I'm going to tape the usb connector up as the connectors on the earlier versions would wear out and the slightest tap or movement on the cable would disconnect the usb connection. 

The other downside to Davis is they are expensive and you need to know how to use a soldering iron due to the boards blowing the supercap. Still a problem to this day. I've got a stack spare caps and a few units will most likely or not need a new fitting. The problem again is design issue and you've got a cap rated at 2.7C across a 3V line so they will pop eventually. 

The anemometer is more reliable these days and last several years. The last failed due UV and the casing started cracking. Since the it's on the Chimney it's hard to replace but I've got an alternative home for next time it goes. 

The reliability of the Davis VP2 is pretty good nowadays, aside from the rubbish FARS fans! I haven't had a failure (touch wood) since 2011 now. Back then I had a supercap failure in my anemometer transmitter (2010), an actual anemometer itself go (2011) and an old SHT11 sensor go (also 2011). I've burned through four FARS fans though - some lasting less than a couple of months.

These days I too am using the updated SHT31 sensor, though no humidity issues on mine and a photocopier fan wired to the mains at 9 volts running 24/7 (running 3 years solid now). Its probably the best setup you can get without mega money.

As for the current charts, they're pure filth for this area. They are literally the best setup you can get for us. Fingers crossed!

[Hull snow]

22 minutes ago, Light Without Heat said:

2010 was epic ?

Don't be so sure if out like 12z verifies could be massive drifts and nation at a standstill

[Hull snow]

Reef hull would be totally cut off if these verify army would be needed most defiantly 

[NorthYorksWeather]

19 hours ago, Winter Cold said:

So then..its my birthday in a few weeks and now I have my own house I am finaly going to get a 'proper' weather station Cant wait, but thought id ask for some advice from you guys on here as im sure many of you have them, some I know for sure do @The PIT and @vizzy2004 for example. You both use Davis stuff?

I do read that they are the best, but its annoying you have to buy the data logger seperatly as others include it in the price/unit. Very cheeky! Also I hate the console, looks like something out of the 1970s lol, what posesed them with that? should be a lovely colour tablet nowadays...

Anyway, any insights or advice would be most appreciated, thanks

Just a standard Davis VP2 for me Chris, although I have now have 13 weather stations across North Yorkshire, a mixture of Davis and Maplin WIFI weather stations.

The Davis are by far the most reliable, and the of course the data is much more "sound" than the Maplin WIFI stations.

The bonus of the Maplin ones are they are much more affordable (£220 currently) and its very easy to get them online via Wunderground as the console connects directly to your WIFI, however the data is unlikely to be as good as the Davis stations as the rain buckets are smaller and the temp shield is smaller so less effective during direct sunlight.

I would certainly recommend the Maplin station if your budget isn't great but if you can afford it I'd always choose either a Vantage Vue or a Pro 2 anyday.

[Gorky]

Looking at the Netweather week 2 forecast for my town, there is a 3 hour period on Sunday when it isn't forecast to snow. Every other 3 hour period is forecast snow for the entire week  Unfortunately, I'm heading down to London on Monday so I'll miss much of the fun, assuming it comes off as forecast which is a big " if " anyway!

[The PIT]

ECM  tonight throws a spanner in the works and fairly early as well. Hopefully it will be on it own. 

[Winter Cold]

yes i hope so, i was really hoping we would count this down like Dec 2010...the signals, strat etc has given good confidence reading the mod thread from the pros etc..

Hopefully just a blip!

Thanks for the replies on the weather station. I think Davis is the way to go, cant stretch to a pro as thats a bit steep when ive still got plenty to do to the house haha! Think ill get the Vue though

Edited February 18, 2018 by Winter Cold

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

20 minutes ago, The PIT said:

ECM  tonight throws a spanner in the works and fairly early as well. Hopefully it will be on it own. 

Is the ECM really that bad?  Drier than previous runs granted but uppers in the region of -10 over our part of the world and then the high retrogresses up to Greenland?

We weren't even getting any cold weather from the East 72 hours ago and now we are complaining about this run?

Expectations need to be reigned in a little I think.  It is getting cold and staying cold given the Atlantic cannot get in given the strength and size of the block to our East.  How cold and how snowy is another matter but looking at the current setup we need a miracle to avoid any deep cold and snow altogether!

All in my opinion of course but then I am a glass half full kind of guy!  

Edited February 18, 2018 by Kentish Snowman

[Winter Cold]

nice to see the ECM tonight was an outlier towards the end so still many reasons to suggest itl still be game on High likely further north..

Im actualy in Scotland on a break w/c 26th lol, I bet Rotherham gets more snow than the highlands whilst im away..how ironic lol!!!! I booked a break up there to try and make sure i see some snow haha

[Craigers]

GFS 18z solid run again! Best chart Yorkshire could have! This would top 2010 if it happens like this. 

[LeeSnowFan]

8 hours ago, Craigers said:

GFS 18z solid run again! Best chart Yorkshire could have! This would top 2010 if it happens like this. 

A 2010 repeat would simply be amazing here!  but I'd be happy with 8-9" of snow!  

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

1 hour ago, LeeSnowFan said:

A 2010 repeat would simply be amazing here!  but I'd be happy with 8-9" of snow!  

Keeping your expectations in check there!  

The ECM run this morning is the first run I have seen for a while that is quite poor for our region in terms of snow from late weekend into early next week.

However if it is anywhere near the mark (looks like a mild outlier around 25th at present) whilst our short term snow chances will be reduced this would prove to be a lengthy cold spell with cold shots and undoubtedly many snow chances from the NE / N further down the line.

RIP Atlantic and hello cold!    

Lets just hope the cold is of the snowy variety from the off eh?!

Edited February 19, 2018 by Kentish Snowman

[Paul_1978]

I keep reading the Met Office guidance that the more significant snow is more likley in "Southern, Central and Eastern" areas. That's a bit ambiguous...

Is Leeds/Bradford/Wakefield etc classed as "Central" or by "Central" do they actually mean more like the Midlands?

Either way a repeat of Feb 1991 would be fantastic!

[Yorkshirepudding]

11 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

I keep reading the Met Office guidance that the more significant snow is more likley in "Southern, Central and Eastern" areas. That's a bit ambiguous...

Is Leeds/Bradford/Wakefield etc classed as "Central" or by "Central" do they actually mean more like the Midlands?

Either way a repeat of Feb 1991 would be fantastic!

Yorkshire is Central and eastern. The Met Office forecast is for the whole of the UK. 

[Kathryn Atkin]

I suspect central is midlands including Derbyshire East Midlands.  We always miss out

 

[reef]

I don't like this trend to gradually move the high southwards. If it keeps happening as we approach the time, our region could well be cold, dry and sunny with very occasional flurries. ECM has 850hPa temps of -12C or so, but we're under 1036hPa air pressure and the atmosphere looks pretty stable. We'd be lucky to get a few flurries and temps of 2-3C by day in such a setup as the convection in the North Sea would hit a cap and remain pretty weak.

If this one fails, I give up!

[Paul_1978]

55 minutes ago, Yorkshirepudding said:

Yorkshire is Central and eastern. The Met Office forecast is for the whole of the UK. 

Thanks, yes I am aware the forecast is for the whole of the UK!

[LeeSnowFan]

13 minutes ago, reef said:

I don't like this trend to gradually move the high southwards. If it keeps happening as we approach the time, our region could well be cold, dry and sunny with very occasional flurries. ECM has 850hPa temps of -12C or so, but we're under 1036hPa air pressure and the atmosphere looks pretty stable. We'd be lucky to get a few flurries and temps of 2-3C by day in such a setup as the convection in the North Sea would hit a cap and remain pretty weak.

If this one fails, I give up!

This is why I get confused

 

Some say this set up is good for yorkshire then others say not! 

[reef]

Just now, LeeSnowFan said:

This is why I get confused

 

Some say this set up is good for yorkshire then others say not! 

The GFS, ICON and GEM are good for us, but the UKMO and ECM less so. The differences are slight, but they have a huge effect on what weather we see up here.

This chart from the GFS at T+168 for example is good for us. The flow is ENE with a long sea track, pressure is sub-1030hPa and the greens and blues indicate the atmosphere is unstable. Couple that with 850hPa temps of nearly -14C and we have the recipe for lots of convection and very heavy snow showers with significant accumulations:

The ECM on the other hand here at T+192 from this morning is much worse:

There's less isobars over us, so less wind and higher temperatures in the sunshine. We're under oranges so the atmosphere is more stable and pressure is above 1035hPa. In this situation the 850hPa temp is still -12C or so, but convection would be weak and temperatures in the sunshine would creep up to 2-3C. We'd get a few flurries, but little in the way of accumulations. The difference is subtle, but it has huge ramifications for our weather up here.

My main problem is, generally you wouldn't bet against the ECM and UKMO at this range.  Hopefully tonight's ECM is better. 

[LeeSnowFan]

8 minutes ago, reef said:

The GFS, ICON and GEM are good for us, but the UKMO and ECM less so. The differences are slight, but they have a huge effect on what weather we see up here.

This chart from the GFS at T+168 for example is good for us. The flow is ENE with a long sea track, pressure is sub-1030hPa and the greens and blues indicate the atmosphere is unstable. Couple that with 850hPa temps of nearly -14C and we have the recipe for lots of convection and very heavy snow showers with significant accumulations:

The ECM on the other hand here at T+192 from this morning is much worse:

There's less isobars over us, so less wind and higher temperatures in the sunshine. We're under oranges so the atmosphere is more stable and pressure is above 1035hPa. In this situation the 850hPa temp is still -12C or so, but convection would be weak and temperatures in the sunshine would creep up to 2-3C. We'd get a few flurries, but little in the way of accumulations. The difference is subtle, but it has huge ramifications for our weather up here.

My main problem is, generally you wouldn't bet against the ECM and UKMO at this range.  Hopefully tonight's ECM is better. 

Thanks so much for explaining!  there is a week to go and all still to play for! and as we know from experience things can change for the good or bad at last minute! or even get some surprises we weren't expecting! 

[LeeSnowFan]

Will it wont it! who knows! these are for next tuesday 

[LeeSnowFan]

Better wrap up warm next week!!! 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Regardless of whether we end up with deep snow or the odd flurry over the weekend into early next week it is going to turn darn cold and stay cold for the foreseeable.

All the time that remains the case the chance of a decent snow event can only increase surely?

Most runs this afternoon look brilliant for our region although I do accept the UK would probably be a little drier than the rest.

Here's hoping for a Stellar ECM!