Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

[joggs]

21 minutes ago, joggs said:

The gfs has always been southerly biased over the slider.

Stick with meto now and radar qatching?

And high res mods.

[Cheese Rice]

Hmmm looks like Leeds could miss out, maybe a cm or two. A general correction south across the models tonight.

EURO4 shows snow in South Yorkshire from 9am-3pm.

[cheese]

12z:

18z:

What a bloody p**s take. Why does crap like this have to happen at the LAST minute? Why can't they just show this from the bloody beginning instead of getting hopes up? 

Absolutely sickening. 

Edited December 8, 2017 by cheese

[joggs]

Down to radar and nowcast.I still feel a few"  up to Skipton etc.

 

[ChezWeather]

14 minutes ago, cheese said:

What a bloody p**s take. Why does crap like this have to happen at the LAST minute? Why can't they just show this from the bloody beginning instead of getting hopes up? 

Absolutely sickening. 

Take all charts with a pinch of salt, UKMO still going further North

[Hope2view]

I have been sucked in and blown out that many times on netweather it makes me wonder why I keep coming back for more.

[Hope2view]

Just to show today’s snow. 

[cheese]

The latest BBC graphics still look okay for this part of the world.. they show the slider pivoting into Yorkshire. I suppose it's not over until the fat lady sings. 

Plus the Met Office still have a >95% of heavy snow here.

Edited December 9, 2017 by cheese

[cheese]

Right, having had a look at this morning's model output, I'm finally throwing in the towel. I think Leeds and most of West Yorkshire will be lucky to get even a centimetre of snow - as most of us feared everything has moved south at the last minute after a week of teasing. South Yorkshire might fare better, but even there it's looking decidedly poor compared to this time yesterday.

I fully expect the BBC and Met Office forecasts to remove the heavy snow icons for this location, and perhaps even remove the threat of snow entirely. 

I'm actually really gutted - I've not been bothered in recent years because nowhere has got much in the way of snow, but to know that further south there will be inches of it is really gut-wrenching, and even worse knowing that another chance for snow might not come at all this month, or even this winter. But what can you do. Hopefully we'll get something at some point between now and March.

Edited December 9, 2017 by cheese

[LeeSnow84]

The met update at 5am now showing heavy snow from 8am to 2pn for South Yorkshire 

[sausage]

43 minutes ago, cheese said:

Right, having had a look at this morning's model output, I'm finally throwing in the towel. I think Leeds and most of West Yorkshire will be lucky to get even a centimetre of snow - as most of us feared everything has moved south at the last minute after a week of teasing. South Yorkshire might fare better, but even there it's looking decidedly poor compared to this time yesterday.

I fully expect the BBC and Met Office forecasts to remove the heavy snow icons for this location, and perhaps even remove the threat of snow entirely. 

I'm actually really gutted - I've not been bothered in recent years because nowhere has got much in the way of snow, but to know that further south there will be inches of it is really gut-wrenching, and even worse knowing that another chance for snow might not come at all this month, or even this winter. But what can you do. Hopefully we'll get something at some point between now and March.

i could not have said this better. exactly

its dam typical of a push southwards.

i dream of these setups. wasted n missed :'(

[BA Baracus]

BBC weather (Stav) just showed the snow all way up to almost Newcastle tomorrow then more on Monday towards Pennines.

Met office have upgraded my snow forecast since yesterday.

Models show it all further south.

So currently BBC/met office Vs computers!

Will it snow??? Snow idea!

[LeeSnowFan]

1 minute ago, BA Baracus said:

BBC weather (Stav) just showed the snow all way up to almost Newcastle tomorrow then more on Monday towards Pennines.

Met office have upgraded my snow forecast since yesterday.

Models show it all further south.

So currently BBC/met office Vs computers!

Will it snow??? Snow idea!

I'm  going with the met!! they obviously no more than the mod thread! and as long as the amber warning stays over us then I will stick with them!  

[cfallon]

2 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

I'm  going with the met!! they obviously no more than the mod thread! and as long as the amber warning stays over us then I will stick with them!  

The met uses the high res model which has moved south so prepare for downgrades this morning folks 

[Cold Winter]

15 minutes ago, cfallon said:

The met uses the high res model which has moved south so prepare for downgrades this morning folks 

Yes, probably just a bit of a delay in it being reflected in their TV output.

ICON/Hirlam are the only ones sticking with a slightly more northerly route (or at least bringing some snow to most parts of Yorkshire).

Have to say there’s pretty good agreement now between the rest of the models on track and precipitation.

Edited December 9, 2017 by Cold Winter

[Love Snow]

Looks like it' game over sadly.

[cowdog]

Wait till tonights runs.

Time and time again frontal Snow hardly ever follows the track predicted days out as due to the conditions required a small variance means 100+ miles different path. If I remember right the snow a few years ago that dumped feet of snow here and caused widespread sheep herd deaths wasn't even predicted for here, was predicted 12 hours before to hit North Wales! Really just wait till the 12z runs, and even then look tomorrow morning at the radar.

Edited December 9, 2017 by cowdog

[LeeSnowFan]

1 minute ago, cowdog said:

Wait till tonights runs.

Time and time again frontal Snow hardly ever follows the track predicted days out as due to the conditions required a small variance means 100+ miles different path. If I remember right the snow a few years ago that dumped feet of snow here and caused widespread sheep herd deaths wasn't even predicted for here, was predicted 12 hours before to hit North Wales! Really just wait till the 12z runs, and even then look tomorrow morning at the radar.

thanks for this! reading comments in here was like being in the "south thread" doom and gloom"!!  how many times has it changes over the last 3 days Its not over until the last minute! we have a few more updates to go  and do still think we will be ok in some parts of our region!  

[Cold Winter]

6 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

thanks for this! reading comments in here was like being in the "south thread" doom and gloom"!!  how many times has it changes over the last 3 days Its not over until the last minute! we have a few more updates to go  and do still think we will be ok in some parts of our region!  

That’s true, things could still change, but if you’ve looked at the models this morning there is some consistency there now. Just being realistic and explaining what the majority of models are saying, but of course they still could be out even at this stage.

I’d prefer not to get my hopes up, and then have a last minute surprise rather than the alternative.

Edited December 9, 2017 by Cold Winter

[terrier]

So it looks like West Yorkshire is now totally out the picture regarding tomorrow’s snowfall looking at the models. Looks like ecm has called this pretty much spot on in last few days. Think South Yorkshire may still see a good few cms. Expect big downgrades today from met office. We should see downgrades on the tv forecasts around lunch time once they get the new data. 

[LeeSnowFan]

Updated at 7am! so will continue to stick with these as again the window for heavy snow has changed now until after 4pm! and still on amber! I will await the lunch time update  

[Tony Beets]

Chill, remember once the charts are out the pros will view all the info available to them and make a forecast as they see it. I for one still think most of West Yorkshire even up to the bottom end of North Yorkshire will get hit. Just my view tho ?

[Hope2view]

It does feel like the hyper nourished women is scuffling the music books.

[swfc]

Forecast is fine. Bbc forecast was just given live and Yorkshire will be fine. Amber warning still in force. Dont expect massive falls tho.50~100 mm

[johnholmes]

I suspect that after the initial fall of 3-5 cm on low ground in S Yorkshire it will turn to rain on low ground as the afternoon wears on. So my area will end up with a slushy mess. The higher ground west of the A1 may well keep the snow until it peters out but even here temperatures, to me, seem unlikely to fall below freezing overnight Monday. Very unpleasant driving though with any altitude I would imagine.