Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

[NorthYorksWeather]

Small adjustment North on the 18z NMM. 

[Sara_south_yorks]

yaay we have snow here now too! Bit of a surprise 

Really nice to see it falling.

[Mark Bayley]

Dusting of snow already. Radar suggests a decent covering by the morning!

[cowdog]

Had possibly max 2 inches here. At least over 3cm, surprised as thought would be lucky to see a cm but really did seem to be more intense than forecast. Hope the same holds true for Sunday

[Love Snow]

Nice dusting here in Morley nothing at the bottom of the hill tho.

Minus 1 and frozen paths roads and cars.

Winter 2018 started better than the last few already.

[Barking_Mad]

Looks like it's shifted south again? 

[cowdog]

3 minutes ago, Barking_Mad said:

Looks like it's shifted south again? 

Depends on the model. Most have shifted it North.

ECM though has shifted Sunday's event south and has decided enough of Winter for the UK. We really have to hope the ECM has lost the plot.

[Craigers]

Leeds now has more of the heavier snow on forecast so looks like the met have moved it north.

[terrier]

Well the ecm moves everything south. And if ecm is on the money we are back in the Atlantic airflow mid week. Think South Yorkshire may do ok on Sunday. But West Yorkshire is gonna be struggling I think. We might get a few cms at best. 

[LeeSnowFan]

It is still looking good for South of our region, unsure about other area's!  still time for it to move again, we won't really know until probably tomorrow night! 

 

 

[Mark Bayley]

40 minutes ago, Craigers said:

Leeds now has more of the heavier snow on forecast so looks like the met have moved it north.

Although note the Yorkshire forecast has accumulations possible, whereas the Midlands forecast says significant accumulations likely. We await the 6z and updated warning. I think they are going with the ECM solution, which pastes the north and west Midlands. South Yorkshire sees the action a well.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017120800/england/acc-total-precipitation/20171211-1200z.html 

 

Edited December 8, 2017 by Mark Bayley

[LeeSnowFan]

1 minute ago, Mark Bayley said:

Although note the Yorkshire forecast has accumulations possible, whereas the Midlands forecast says significant accumulations likely. We await the 6z and updated warning. I think they are going with the ECM solution, which pastes the north and west Midlands. South Yorkshire sees the action a well.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017120800/england/acc-total-precipitation/20171211-1200z.html 

 

Picture is blank? 

[LeeSnowFan]

It really is playing with us! 

[Mark Bayley]

Just now, LeeSnowFan said:

Picture is blank? 

See the link, these charts are a bit funny!

[CasMan]

Met office have been showing heavy snow for about 3 days for me in West Yorkshire, until they change this I'm not going to get all worked up based on one model run, I have never seen their updates so consistent it normally changes daily.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

The local Met forecast for my area has extended the snowfall to between 9am Sunday and 3pm Monday!  

None of it particularly heavy though apart from Sunday afternoon so hopefully it will all settle....

Still have a feeling worst hit areas might be the Midlands though.  Time will tell....

Edited December 8, 2017 by Kentish Snowman

[LeeSnowFan]

2 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

The local Met forecast for my area has extended the snowfall to between 9am Sunday and 3pm Monday!  

None of it particularly heavy though apart from Sunday afternoon so hopefully it will all settle....

Still have a feeling worst hit areas might be the Midlands though.  Time will tell....

Yes yesterday it had us heavy snow for 12pm through to 9pm but now just showing 12pm and rest is light slow! 

the charts change every few hours direction so it's still not a dead cert on which area's will see the worst! all to play for 

[Mark Bayley]

Sunday 10am or 1pm snap shot for all the models (bar UKMO). Heaviest precipitation reaching South Yorkshire, still a chance for a good covering further north. I would expect some southward corrections, however. 

WRF NMM, ARPEGE, GFS, ICON, GEM, NAVGEM, ECM

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017120800/england/acc-total-precipitation/20171211-1200z.html 

 

Edited December 8, 2017 by Mark Bayley

[cheese]

10 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

The local Met forecast for my area has extended the snowfall to between 9am Sunday and 3pm Monday!  

None of it particularly heavy though apart from Sunday afternoon so hopefully it will all settle....

Still have a feeling worst hit areas might be the Midlands though.  Time will tell....

I am feeling much less positive this morning than I was yesterday evening, to be honest. I think the best course of action is to just avoid this forum and the models until after Sunday - if it snows, it will be a pleasant surprise, and if it doesn't, I don't have to read endless posts on here about how much it's snowing elsewhere, because that always annoys me.

In fact, I won't watch the news or weather forecasts either. A total weather blank-out.

Edited December 8, 2017 by cheese

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

2 minutes ago, cheese said:

I am feeling much less positive this morning than I was yesterday evening, to be honest. I think the best course of action is to just avoid this forum and the models until after Sunday - if it snows, it will be a pleasant surprise, and if it doesn't, I don't have to read endless posts on here about how much it's snowing elsewhere, because that always annoys me.

In fact, I won't watch the news or weather forecasts either. A total weather blank-out.

Ha ha I hear you but I enjoy reading and seeing extreme weather (especially snow) even if it is happening elsewhere in the UK!

I personally think the North Midlands will be in the sweet spot come Sunday which means Yorkshire will definitely see a half decent snowfall but regardless I just think it is a fascinating situation which doesn't come around very often in this country so I am embracing the will it won't it chat.  Exciting in my book but perhaps I an just weird!  

[terrier]

Think by the time Sunday comes this will be a none event for West Yorkshire. Ecm has been steadfast last few runs of this been a wales midlands event with maybe South Yorkshire feeding off scraps. At least it’s only Dec though. 

[NorthYorksWeather]

Unfortunatley for those in North Yorkshire the models have trended South overnight, West Yorkshire still looks OK but snow amount will obviously lessen the further South the front goes. 

[Cheese Rice]

Oh dear. 

 

I was gonna book a train to Leeds to experience this event but at this rate it'll only skim Yorkshire. 

London too far south, Leeds too far north. 

 

*cries*

Edited December 8, 2017 by Cheese Rice

[sausage]

its ridiculous and typical. really spoilt my day. after such a great upgrafe on the 18z gfs and 00z gfs. dont trust any model anymore and wont for a long time. a special event wasted for us. it might stay coldish next week but no snow in the forecast at all. still my wait goes on and on and on. wasnt asking for much

[CasMan]

3 minutes ago, sausage said:

its ridiculous and typical. really spoilt my day. after such a great upgrafe on the 18z gfs and 00z gfs. dont trust any model anymore and wont for a long time. a special event wasted for us. it might stay coldish next week but no snow in the forecast at all. still my wait goes on and on and on. wasnt asking for much

where are you based ? its still showing snow for me and although it has moved slightly south, it hasnt really changed much here in west yorkshire looking at the models and the met office website