Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

[Love Snow]

In 2010 did the Irish sea act as a snow machine ? With a strong wind tomorrow could the same happen again with more organised bands of snow heading this way? If we get the luck 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

10 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well the gfs12z follows on from the gfs06z. Can’t see much snow for our region maybe a dusting at best. Looks abit like a none event regarding snow. But it’s going be cold with some sharp frosts 

Well there are now weather warnings out covering Pennine areas and this forecast from the Met issued this afternoon looks pretty decent for us so no reason for pessimism in my book.  None of that wintry showers rubbish!

Thursday:

Often bright or sunny, but an increasingly cold day is forecast with snow showers developing. Fresh or strong northwesterly winds. Then a cold, frosty night to follow. Maximum temperature 11 °C.

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Very cold, sunny, on Friday and Saturday with strong northwesterly winds and some snow showers. Sharp frosts forming during nights. Increasingly cloudy on Sunday with possible snow.

Edited December 6, 2017 by Kentish Snowman

[Barry12]

cheer up Terrier, you'll see snow mate.

[memories of 63]

OMG, I can’t stand this! The latest MO warning puts me right on the edge of the snow zone. If it turns out to be a couple of flurries I’ll be gutted. Waiting for @Cheese Rice for his opinion.  He is a bit higher than me though.

[Cheese Rice]

3 minutes ago, memories of 63 said:

OMG, I can’t stand this! The latest MO warning puts me right on the edge of the snow zone. If it turns out to be a couple of flurries I’ll be gutted. Waiting for @Cheese Rice for his opinion.  He is a bit higher than me though.

I'm in London (have been for the last five years) but usually come up when there is snow forecast. 

Was gonna come this weekend. But I'm not seeing much snow for Leeds unfortunately. If anything there is more potential for London to see lying snow than Leeds. The angle of the flow is completely off for Leeds to catch the showers, if your lucky you'll get a flurry or two. 

Sundays slider looks to be too far south as well unfortunately. 

 

I think sometime towards the end of next week there is likely to be second frontal snow event where Leeds would be better placed.

[terrier]

All looks abit of a none event looking at gfs snow charts for our region 

[Decemberof2010]

And yet on GEM/UKMO and arpege it is quite an event for us. The met back this up too. So are you dismissing those and going with GFS? 

[Cheese Rice]

1 minute ago, Decemberof2010 said:

And yet on GEM/UKMO and arpege it is quite an event for us. The met back this up too. So are you dismissing those and going with GFS? 

Where does the Met back this up? 

The official forecast from the Met focus on snow for the south. 

 

[Decemberof2010]

Their 5 day forecast which includes Sunday doesn't focus on the south. And on the app it has snow symbols for Sunday 

[Decemberof2010]

They also state "further accumulations to central and northern areas"

[terrier]

BBC news24 mentioned that some significant snow for Sunday for midlands southwards as it stands. So think cheese rice could well be correct in his thoughts. 

[Love Snow]

38 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

I'm in London (have been for the last five years) but usually come up when there is snow forecast. 

Was gonna come this weekend. But I'm not seeing much snow for Leeds unfortunately. If anything there is more potential for London to see lying snow than Leeds. The angle of the flow is completely off for Leeds to catch the showers, if your lucky you'll get a flurry or two. 

Sundays slider looks to be too far south as well unfortunately. 

 

I think sometime towards the end of next week there is likely to be second frontal snow event where Leeds would be better placed.

Could Sundays angle change position or do you think it's game over for Leeds ? 

Edited December 6, 2017 by Love Snow

[Cheese Rice]

9 minutes ago, Love Snow said:

Could Sundays angle change position or do you think it's game over for Leeds ? 

It's far from set in stone. Though I'm edging towards it been a Midlands/Southern England event. I don't expect to see lying snow where I am in central London so it looks like we could all miss out unfortunately. 

[Love Snow]

6 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

It's far from set in stone. Though I'm edging towards it been a Midlands/Southern England event. I don't expect to see lying snow where I am in central London so it looks like we could all miss out unfortunately. 

Thanks and good luck hope you see some of the white stuff. Enjoy your updates.

[The PIT]

Continuing movement south on the GFS so looking like we will miss out in the end. Time for a shift north again but normally when this happens it will end up just the southwest and a channel low. Still a chance of snow showers on the east coast if the low pressure winds up like the ECM shows T120. So I would say the reliable time frame is around T81 at the moment as differences start to show after that. ECM and UKMO are the best for us Snow wise. Hopefully GFS will retain is place as 3rd bets model and the other two are right.

[Guest]

36 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Continuing movement south on the GFS so looking like we will miss out in the end. Time for a shift north again but normally when this happens it will end up just the southwest and a channel low. Still a chance of snow showers on the east coast if the low pressure winds up like the ECM shows T120. So I would say the reliable time frame is around T81 at the moment as differences start to show after that. ECM and UKMO are the best for us Snow wise. Hopefully GFS will retain is place as 3rd bets model and the other two are right.

Yep, I know it isn't showing what we want and to save disappointment it is easy to back the GFS but there are other models that put the snow extent further north bringing us back into play. 

Sunday is a looooooong way off folks so don't lose hope just yet

[LeeSnow84]

Could still be good for us ! All to play for 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

2 hours ago, Cheese Rice said:

It's far from set in stone. Though I'm edging towards it been a Midlands/Southern England event. I don't expect to see lying snow where I am in central London so it looks like we could all miss out unfortunately. 

In my experience Hell will be frozen over before lying snow is seen in Central London!

I think you maybe right about Sunday though.  Snow chances look like heading South in more ways than one.

Staying cold though so still time for short term snowy upgrades over the coming days.  

[LeeSnow84]

Upgrades again shifted further north so we’re back in the running ???

[joggs]

News 24 weather for week ahead said Wales,parts of Midlands and northern England in firing line atm.

Could shift though. 21:55 forecast.

[Weather26]

Waits for the whole thing to turn out to be the same thing that happend at the end of last week-Snowing all night last Thursday night only for it to be gone by Friday afternoon-And we are stlll 4 days away-still time for it to head due south.

[terrier]

So the 18z has it further north now. You couldn’t make it up if you tried. Steve murr seems to think the 06z and 18z are wrong. And says wait for the 00z where it should head south. Very interesting indeed. 

[Love Snow]

Talk about a headache situation.The model Discussion thread gets a bit tedious if the South ain't getting the look in.

Happy with the shift North,but the more respected members think it's a blip so not getting my hopes up.

 

Edited December 6, 2017 by Love Snow

[sausage]

paul hudson on bbc was very excited and confident for snow sunday and was going with his own ukmo model.

[The PIT]

That's killed it then if Pauls getting excited. Like Carols humdingers instant death for any storm. Anyway further back north as others have noted. This evening maybe further south again who knows.