SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

[Jezzer]

Just overheard in the BBC newsroom via BBC Weather, up to 15cm of snow expected in parts of the SE

[VillagePlank]

Precipitation not as concentrated on the North part of the LP, now. More evenly distributed: much better for Kent, Sussex, Surrey, less so for Essex, etc

Here's the 00z,

Here's the 06z,

[snowray]

Frifday morning looking good though.

[loafer]

2 minutes ago, VillagePlank said:

Precipitation not as concentrated on the North part of the LP, now. More evenly distributed: much better for Kent, Sussex, Surrey, less so for Essex, etc

Here's the 00z,

Here's the 06z,

Unfortunately temps may not be low enough until 20:00 onwards.

[john mac]

2 minutes ago, VillagePlank said:

Precipitation not as concentrated on the North part of the LP, now. More evenly distributed: much better for Kent, Sussex, Surrey, less so for Essex, etc

Here's the 00z,

Here's the 06z,

Still great for Essex to me

[VillagePlank]

2 minutes ago, loafer said:

Unfortunately temps may not be low enough until 20:00 onwards.

Sounds about right,

Edited January 12, 2017 by VillagePlank

[Ben Lewis]

23 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

My prime locations this eve based on track variabilty

Stanstead & SE essex 

dunstable downs

box hill

wrotham hill

bluebell hill

east kent downs

M25 downs ( sutton way etc )

S

Dunstable downs always does well in set ups like this. 

I live a 15 minute drive away where there's just a dusting of slush - drive up a few hills to Dunstable and it's like another world. 

[john mac]

4 minutes ago, loafer said:

Unfortunately temps may not be low enough until 20:00 onwards.

Dewpoints are far more important than the temps!!

[VillagePlank]

3 minutes ago, john mac said:

Dewpoints are far more important than the temps!!

Yes, and also thicknesses are the right side of 128dm from 6pm tonight: even though the lower 850hPa temps arrive later.

Edited January 12, 2017 by VillagePlank

[lawrenk]

59 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Hmm my house is at 120m above sea level just on the outskirts of the ashdown forest. So could be a sweet spot suspect Crowborough will get an all snow event  @Steve Murr

Hi Tom. Just down the road from you! Yes, I think you could do well. Hoping for some as well here. I know what you mean about Crowborough. Even Heathfield usually does a good deal better than us because of the extra elevation and being a few miles more inland.

[Ben Lewis]

What a difference with BBC latest graphics just now compared to yesterday. 

 

 

 

[loafer]

Very interesting...I wonder if the models are underplaying the snow probability on that basis - we have seen it before!

[Essex snowman]

Going by the BBC chart its London northwards event so Suffolk Essex also London affected 

[Seasonality]

Netweather high res showing precipitation clearing away quickly. GFS 06z shows mostly rain at 18:00 much like Euro 4. Just reporting the output, not trying to be a party pooper and as we know this is a nowcast situation, so watch the radar and look out the window.

[VillagePlank]

All things considered, I am still expecting snow at higher levels from 6pm, and to low levels from some point between 6pm and 9pm onwards.

[Alpine glow]

Does anyone think MetO will upgrade to Amber for some of the region?

[TSNWK]

its trending away! as we come up to show time! - hoping for a improvement next week.

[john mac]

13 minutes ago, loafer said:

Unfortunately temps may not be low enough until 20:00 onwards.

Dewpoints are far more important than the temps!!

I'm walking the dog on chingford golf course very snowy looking clouds heading this way. That lovely grey/white colour. We will see!!!

[john mac]

1 minute ago, Alpine glow said:

Does anyone think MetO will upgrade to Amber for some of the region?

Will know at about 10-30

[VillagePlank]

Just now, Alpine glow said:

Does anyone think MetO will upgrade to Amber for some of the region?

I think they'll have to if they are expecting snow, since mixed in with the wind will make for atrocious driving conditions about rush-hour time. They may well be late in issuing it, however, because the forecast is totally dependent on where the low pressure forms; not so big of a deal on a global scale, but makes a huge differnce +/- 50 miles for instance between heavy rain and snowmageddon.

[A.J]

morning all, best of luck to everyone for snow today!.............just wondering, would you guys and gals like a new thread for this afternoon or stik with this one?

[Southender]

As I said earlier this morn, before dark mostly rain at low levels. As the front clears 6-9pm there is a chance of back edge flakes. Then eyes turn to the band moving down from the north west around 7-10am tomorrow. Much better chance of snow then as conditions are more favourable.

Edited January 12, 2017 by Southender

[Weather Wonder]

5 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

What a difference with BBC latest graphics just now compared to yesterday. 

 

 

 

It looks like the low is forecast to be weaker the previously modelled, hence a more Southerly track, less precipitation and less cold air being drawn in, let's hope this changes in the coming hours.

[Kent Blizzard]

1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

morning all, best of luck to everyone for snow today!.............just wondering, would you guys and gals like a new thread for this afternoon or stik with this one?

Morning AJ

If it makes the thread load a bit quicker then might be a good idea? Could just of been my device though.

[Uxbridge90]

5 minutes ago, Weather Wonder said:

It looks like the low is forecast to be weaker the previously modelled, hence a more Southerly track, less precipitation and less cold air being drawn in, let's hope this changes in the coming hours.

Yep, certainly not as good as we all hoped but we all knew this could happen. Plenty to look forward to after this so not all is lost

Edited January 12, 2017 by Uxbridge90