SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

[SMU]

Its all about next week for me although this weekend will be a bonus...

lots of people underestimating the depth of the cold come Tues- kent / essex / suffolk could be looking at 5-6 ice days on the bounce if the models varify ! Plus snow flurries to boot...

S

Edited January 12, 2017 by Steve Murr

[snowy weather]

1 hour ago, snowking said:

More positively, BBC graphics look far more optimistic about snowfall potential, which would suggest some heavily modified 0z fields from the big man at Exeter

It's looking really good for us. BBC weather has heavy for us from 5-9.

To be honest I'm so snow starved I would take just flakes falling out of the sky for 10 mins

[jamesbhx]

Total predicted accumulations as of tomorrow morning. AROME 1.3km model. 00z run.

[SnowShoeHare]

Just happy to see it on the MetO website, I have not so fond memories of walking home from central London after a similar event in 2003 so will be leaving early regardless. Anything is a bonus.

[Kent Blizzard]

The doom merchants and wind upswill be out in force today, just like they was on New Years Day when some was writing off the whole of Jan and the rest of Winter.

They'll be wanting today to fail to save egg on face rather than using it as a learning curve for the future.

Enjoy the ride & like Surrey states use the radars and the observations because its a nowcast event we are entering.

Edited January 12, 2017 by Kent Blizzard

[Scandinavian High.]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Its all about next week for me although this weekend will be a bonus...

lots of people underestimating the depth of the cold come Tues- kent could be looking at 5-6 ice days on the bounce if the models varify ! Plus snow flurries to boot...

S

Hi Steve I'm in Bromley would I be in the mixs for snow flurries next week..

[malc]

Seems to me that the confidence seen in the forecasts yesterday pm for something decent for the SE today has ebbed a little overnight. Forecasts this morning have definitely toned it down a bit.  

[snowbob]

Well hoping for a bit of a bonus today

would love some settling snow but looking like anything that does will get washed away sunday

still time for that to change

hoping Sunday wil become coder as things develop 

great posts this morning Steve 

to finally have all models singing from the same sheet at 144 is a sight in itself

[Southender]

8 minutes ago, jamesbhx said:

Total predicted accumulations as of tomorrow morning. AROME 1.3km model. 00z run.

Perfect example of high ground will make the difference. Downs/Chilterns etc.

[VillagePlank]

Looks like snow on higher ground from 6pm, and snow to lower levels sometime from 6-9pm onwards tonight (for far SE - Kent/E Sussex)

Edited January 12, 2017 by VillagePlank

[Kent Blizzard]

Will be interesting to observe what time the rain enters the region & if it meets the forecasted time.

[VillagePlank]

Chance that depths are being underestimated for Kent/Sussex/Essex

[staplehurst]

31 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Yes it does, the 0z come out 4/5am then the 06z comes out about 11am 

Yes, the raw model comes out at 5am (ish) but it has to go through various modification processes at the Met Office before being sent to the BBC, and so it doesn't appear until late morning. Lunchtime bulletins use 00z data, evening bulletins use 06z data, and breakfast 18z data etc

[VillagePlank]

A good chance that the LP will form more south than opertional run, which means heavier precipitation for N Kent etc

Edited January 12, 2017 by VillagePlank

[Seasonality]

18 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

The doom merchants and wind upswill be out in force today, just like they was on New Years Day when some was writing off the whole of Jan and the rest of Winter.

They'll be wanting today to fail to save egg on face rather than using it as a learning curve for the future.

Enjoy the ride & like Surrey states use the radars and the observations because its a nowcast event we are entering.

Careful, there has been some trouble on the forums lately with this, just don't mention anyone in particular as the mods will come down on it. Completely justified comment you've made with regard to some on NW but best stay schtum.

[SMU]

29 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Hi Steve I'm in Bromley would I be in the mixs for snow flurries next week..

Specifically I couldnt say but its highly likely

sunday evening/night - keep  your ears & eyes on that timeframe...

[Seasonality]

2 minutes ago, VillagePlank said:

A good chance that the LP will form more south than opertional run, which means heavier precipitation for N Kent etc

So I guess that means those further north will be worse off... Not such a bad thing, the far south is so snow starved they deserve a bit. 

[VillagePlank]

1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

So I guess that means those further north will be worse off... Not such a bad thing, the far south is so snow starved they deserve a bit. 

I'm up on top of Bluebell Hill. If it's possible, then it always snows here, and M2 J3 is always chaos! Needless to say, working from home today ....

[Southender]

8 minutes ago, VillagePlank said:

A good chance that the LP will form more south than opertional run,

That is a big old deviation for such a short time frame. Potentially 5-6mb which could nudge it further South 50 miles perhaps, which could have big consequences!.

Let's hope for a Southerly adjustment and a delay/stall.

Edited January 12, 2017 by Southender

[VillagePlank]

1 minute ago, Southender said:

That is a big old deviation for such a short time frame. Let's hope for a Southerly adjustment and a delay/stall.

Yes, surprised at the min/max bar. Location and positions still not nailed. As others have said it really is a nowcasting event, but, given these GEFS ensembles, it's odds on to be more south than currently forecast.

[Seasonality]

4 minutes ago, VillagePlank said:

I'm up on top of Bluebell Hill. If it's possible, then it always snows here, and M2 J3 is always chaos! Needless to say, working from home today ....

I suspect you're in the sweet spot. Precipitation will hold on longest in far SE of course and southerly adjustment looking good for you. High Res models looking ok for your location too.

[snowy weather]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Specifically I couldnt say but its highly likely

sunday evening/night - keep  your ears & eyes on that timeframe...

Hey Steve, how's it looking for west Sussex, more specifically Crawley/horsham?

BBC weather and the met office has us down for heavy snow from 5pm to 9pm.

Is that still pretty much what the models are showing?

[exodus]

I've reconnected my weather station to Wunderground so if people want to keep an eye on dew points up this way:

www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=ISTANSTE10

[VillagePlank]

1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

I suspect you're in the sweet spot. Precipitation will hold on longest in far SE of course and southerly adjustment looking good for you. High Res models looking ok for your location too.

Yes, the height always helps as precipitation will turn to snow more readily. Important today as the 500hPa cold moves in quicker than the 850hPa. Also, wind will really be a factor with atrocious driving conditions.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

PPN making slower in roads to me.. Sorry can't stay away lol working and on here