SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

[SMU]

Yes ^^ nowcast event now although Friday AM holds perhaps more interest...

medium term 120-240looks potential deep cold still With 1c maximas & very low dewpoints....

[snowking]

Hi Surrey,

The kind of tracks shown yesterday were a little more ideal for engaging that colder air a little sooner - this was also partially down to the wave/low development being a little stronger, which also resulted in more intense precipitation formation (which of course in turn produced more evaporative cooling).

I haven't got the time this morning unfortunately but it would be interesting to see how the WV imagery ties in with the 0z initialisation. I saw Ian F mention on twitter yesterday that as of 12z the Met Office were happy with the WV/Euro4 continuity, but that was now 12 hours ago. The hope would be that perhaps that's slightly out of kilter as of 0z and it's a bit of a rogue run, but no guarantees.

[southbank]

Yep as others have said a nowcast situation , thoughts at the mo is that radar is showing less development of the low , this can change later 

[Seasonality]

Part of the outcome will be due to the speed the front moves through. Latest Euro 4 shows precip mostly gone bar far SE by 9pm. Meto reflects this with many locations now dry by this time that were previously showing some form of wet/white stuff falling. Arome model shows precip pushing through just as quick but more keen on a wintry mix rather than mostly rain as on Euro 4. So yes, time to nowcast! 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Going to come down to the radar and live obvs like I said yesterday 

[snowking]

More positively, BBC graphics look far more optimistic about snowfall potential, which would suggest some heavily modified 0z fields from the big man at Exeter

[southbank]

It just opinion but from years of watching these events the front always moves through quicker then models indicate , we may get more oompf when the cold air really starts digging in and interacting as the low moves through so plenty to watch today

 

btw good ecm

[Sparky68]

Yesterday at 5 am it was 10c here in MK , today its between 4 and 5c , come on cold air , do your thing

[SLEETY]

Not the most inspiring forecast on BBC London earlier,rain turning to snow on hills and MAYBE on low ground too,but no mention if it will settle , or amounts of snow  ,a  very poorly presented forecast ,considering the impact if it does settle, are the met still not sure yet? 

Edited January 12, 2017 by SLEETY

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Signing off today till 4-5pm good luck all ignore any graphics and use

 

Www.raintoday.co.uk

Sat24

Weatherhq (live temp for locations) 

[bluearmy]

still no strong continuity which is no surprise given the developing feature. this is going to be a nowcast and given the timing, it's a huge problem. I have the feeling that the wording this morning shows a lack of belief from Exeter that widespread settling snow is likely. 

 

[staplehurst]

46 minutes ago, snowking said:

More positively, BBC graphics look far more optimistic about snowfall potential, which would suggest some heavily modified 0z fields from the big man at Exeter

That'll be because they're using the 18z EURO4 (and perhaps some blend of UKV) at this stage. 00z data doesn't come into the system until late morning

[Great Plum]

Hi all, not been on this thread for a bit... today sounds interesting!

The met office forecast for Reigate is still showing heavy snow from 5. I think with all the rain before, I don't expect it to settle - but the ice will be horrendous tomorrow morning! 

[Great Plum]

Latest net weather app radar for info...

 

[Southender]

This highlights the 850 temps for the two features today and early tomorrow.

If it is on the money you will see the problem we have with todays feature. Too much milder air wrapped up in it giving us mostly rain with perhaps an hour of snow on the back edge, before it clears the whole region by around 9pm. If it were to track further south, then that will increase our chances of a longer spell of snow. Look out your window from around 5/6pm and see what is happening, as the models have no idea. Personally I am writing any settling snow off for my location, but expecting to see a few flakes falling on the back edge, nothing more.

The feature moving down early hours Fri morning looks far more promising for snow. You will note a milder wedge of air coming down from the N/NW but we are talking -4 850's at worst in the far East. Compared to today where we are nudging positive 850's. If it keeps that track, then quite a few if not all of us could be heading to work with a dusting of snow (1-2cm tops) I think this is the best shot of settling snow out of the two features over the next 24hrs or so.

Dewpoints for same time frame. Look at the difference after 6pm today.

Edited January 12, 2017 by Southender

[john mac]

16 minutes ago, Great Plum said:

Latest net weather app radar for info...

 

That a looks to me like the precipitation is further west than was showing for this time in last nights forecast!

[Ben Blizzard]

1 minute ago, john mac said:

That a looks to me like the precipitation is further west than was showing for this time in last nights forecast!

Is that a good thing? I thought that the later the precip  arrived the better? 

[steveinsussex]

Why does it always go a bit tits up at the last min 

 

lol

[john mac]

1 minute ago, Ben Blizzard said:

Is that a good thing? I thought that the later the precip  arrived the better? 

I think so because I guess it shows that it's slowler moving allowing the cold to dig in quicker

[Seasonality]

31 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

That'll be because they're using the 18z EURO4 (and perhaps some blend of UKV) at this stage. 00z data doesn't come into the system until late morning

00z is still mostly rain though.

[JennyJane1]

I am kind of optimistic, in the sky outside there are the sorts of clouds i associate with snow.

[Great Plum]

I have some meetings up on the downs this afternoon (I'm a planning officer) - in kingswood, Epsom downs and Banstead - I would expect the rain to be turning sleety at that elevation by 3ish if we are going to see any meaningful snow...

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

47 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

That'll be because they're using the 18z EURO4 (and perhaps some blend of UKV) at this stage. 00z data doesn't come into the system until late morning

Yes it does, the 0z come out 4/5am then the 06z comes out about 11am 

[Mark wheeler]

Not inspiring this morning but will have to take whatever comes . Oh to just see a flake falling from the London skyline . Fingers crossed guys and will be back in here later.

[Southender]

My advice would be to treat this afternoon/eve as a bonus if you see any snow. The chances of snow dramatically increase after 6pm tonight and right through the weekend. So not all doom and gloom, just treat today as a taster for what may come from Fri morning onwards.