SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

[Dami]

omg it worked. 

[Ben Blizzard]

If the warning gets upgraded it's probably more to do with the 'event' happening during rush hour as opposed to the upgrade being a reflection on the intensity etc. Still exciting if it happens though 

Edited January 11, 2017 by Ben Blizzard

[Mark wheeler]

And this is him along with the rest of us if it does not snow tomorrow.

 

[SMU]

Evening 

In here from 630 tomorrow !

I love rain to heavy snow events - the transition is great fun.

I reakon 10cms over dunstable is the best we do then poss another 5 max fri AM...

Love 

[A Wintry Mix]

I'm just hoping someone has forgot to service the Thanet snow shield!

[Lauren]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening 

In here from 630 tomorrow !

I love rain to heavy snow events - the transition is great fun.

I reakon 10cms over dunstable is the best we do then poss another 5 max fri AM...

Love 

We need to crack out the Murr scale again!

[snowking]

7 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Long time no speak Kris! Hope you are well mate :-)

Thanks for that link, what`s your view on our neck of the woods? Interested in the secondary feature overnight too.

Good evening! How's everything going.

So I am actually primarily London based now but I am very tempted to make a 'surprise visit' back to my folks in Essex tomorrow evening because I suspect that with the 100m or so of elevation it could be a prime location - the only concern would be how much wave development we see as to how far North the precipitation tracks, but I wouldn't think it would travel so far South that it misses the home counties now. Though caution still advised with differing tracks even at this juncture. The ECMWF 12z, for example, as shown below:

Everything crossed for you though and hope you get to see the first decent dump since March '13!

6 minutes ago, Ben Blizzard said:

If the warning gets upgraded it's probably more to do with the 'event' happening during rush hour as opposed to the upgrade being a reflection on the intensity etc. Still exciting if it happens though 

^^^ spot on

[Laurence Hill]

1 minute ago, Lauren said:

We need to crack out the Murr scale again!

Keep us up to date Steve, which ever way it goes it's still appreciated

[Stuie]

7 minutes ago, snowking said:

Good evening! How's everything going.

So I am actually primarily London based now but I am very tempted to make a 'surprise visit' back to my folks in Essex tomorrow evening because I suspect that with the 100m or so of elevation it could be a prime location - the only concern would be how much wave development we see as to how far North the precipitation tracks, but I wouldn't think it would travel so far South that it misses the home counties now. Though caution still advised with differing tracks even at this juncture. The ECMWF 12z, for example, as shown below:

Everything crossed for you though and hope you get to see the first decent dump since March '13!

^^^ spot on

Ahh you have moved to the money huh? Glad you are well mate.

That is my fear and has always been my fear is that the "feature" would never get north enough, especially when looking a few days ago when it only glanced the south coast. I`m staying positive though due to all the "expert" drama but as I said has been a concern and I was actually surprised to see a warning soo far north.

Anyway, it`s the 1st time in years that this could happen so that`s good enough for me. Bottom line is, if the precipitation does make it Nrth enough it will snow, if it doesn`t then a dry evening tomorrow.

1 of the above is correct :-)

 

Edit: And where did you get that chart! Paywall Icelandic?

Edited January 11, 2017 by Stuie W

[PLANET THANET]

3 minutes ago, A Wintry Mix said:

I'm just hoping someone has forgot to service the Thanet snow shield!

unfortunately ,not that I understand why but the BBC weathersite for local conditions states that Broadstairs and Sandwich will have Heavy snow between 2000hrs and 2100hrs but we in Ramsgate will have Sleet !! anyone who knows the area will think that this is strange, as we are all right on the coast with hardly any distance between us.

[OfficialKevWX]

First time we could see snow in 2 years...I'm excited

[Jimmyh]

1 hour ago, snowking said:

What's funny is he's actually not, I asked him this on Twitter yesterday and the response was he actually much prefers the warmth. Just fortunately enough he's an enthusiastic enough forecaster to get excited no matter what

Did anyone hear the great tomasz on the shipping forecast after his Xmas do was hilarious the radio 4 presenter had to take over as u could literally here home being sick. Guys a legend 

[JennyJane1]

i need to go to bed but i want to stay up all night and read the updates

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, snowking said:

So, let's take a look at where we stand in terms of Hi-Res modelling this evening then:

 

Conclusion - Clueless! As to be expected when you have 4 uncertain variables to play with

I don't mind, they all give me snow except the last one, that's good enough for me.

[paget]

Evening all! 

Fun and games for next couple of days it seems!  

[March]

Why are people excited by this? It's going to be too wet to settle and what does will melt easily on Friday. 

[snowking]

5 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Ahh you have moved to the money huh? Glad you are well mate.

That is my fear and has always been my fear is that the "feature" would never get north enough, especially when looking a few days ago when it only glanced the south coast. I`m staying positive though due to all the "expert" drama but as I said has been a concern and I was actually surprised to see a warning soo far north.

Anyway, it`s the 1st time in years that this could happen so that`s good enough for me. Bottom line is, if the precipitation does make it Nrth enough it will snow, if it doesn`t then a dry evening tomorrow.

1 of the above is correct :-)

I'm afraid so! That and the increased opportunity for drinking....

Yes even up until about 24-36 hours ago it looked likely to be one of those that runs just along the M4 and then away. The whole region should be glad that it does now push further North because it allows the system to engage far more colder air more quickly so we hope to see it sticking to a similar track to the rather consistent Euro4 suggestion so far.

[Methuselah]

According to the NW Home Page, sunny Beccles is currently 6C and sunny. Hmmm?

[Kentspur]

3 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

i need to go to bed but i want to stay up all night and read the updates

Ditto 6 days a week of starting work at 4am is hardcore! hope we are still on course in the mornig.when I check this forum

[Dami]

1 minute ago, March said:

Why are people excited by this? It's going to be too wet to settle and what does will melt easily on Friday. 

bah humbug. 

[Kentspur]

2 minutes ago, March said:

Why are people excited by this? It's going to be too wet to settle and what does will melt easily on Friday. 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

2 minutes ago, March said:

Why are people excited by this? It's going to be too wet to settle and what does will melt easily on Friday. 

This tends to crop up a lot, but if conditions are right then the snow will settle even if there has been quite a bit of rain preceding this. At the moment tomorrows system could give rain for most or potentially a fair covering quite widely. A real marginal event but I suspect the intensity is a keep part which seems to suggest that if the low winds up and runs along the south coast it could bring some heavy precipitation which could turn readily to snow by late afternoon and into the evening.

[steveinsussex]

10 minutes ago, March said:

Why are people excited by this? It's going to be too wet to settle and what does will melt easily on Friday. 

I've had snow that has settled on wet ground plenty of times! 

[Stuie]

4 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

This tends to crop up a lot, but if conditions are right then the snow will settle even if there has been quite a bit of rain preceding this. At the moment tomorrows system could give rain for most or potentially a fair covering quite widely. A real marginal event but I suspect the intensity is a keep part which seems to suggest that if the low winds up and runs along the south coast it could bring some heavy precipitation which could turn readily to snow by late afternoon and into the evening.

True words and I also have to say the quote about it easily melting is erm... seriously debatable with temps!

[Met4Cast]

12 minutes ago, March said:

Why are people excited by this? It's going to be too wet to settle and what does will melt easily on Friday. 

Temperatures will drop very quickly and once the rain turns to snow, if conditions are right it will very easily settle on wet ground. Anything that does settle will freeze solid through tomorrow night with the possibility of a top up during Friday.