SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

[Daniel*]

Current way of thinking I believe these maps are based on the latest data? Is a transition to snow, heavy snow to the S of London 1800 Thursday, based on their map all the way to the south coast could be interesting, I would not rule out Thursday it's evolving constantly. 

ECM is very interesting.

See SK post it's good from the Euro4  

 

Edited January 10, 2017 by Changing Skies

[Met4Cast]

There used to be a guy on here who had his own website and he'd make his own video forecasts, usually it was him sitting in front of the camera talking about the models and what he expected, pretty sure he was based in Kent and I seem to remember his name being Steve? Might have the name wrong, anyone know who I'm talking about/what happened to him?

[Kent Blizzard]

16 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

There used to be a guy on here who had his own website and he'd make his own video forecasts, usually it was him sitting in front of the camera talking about the models and what he expected, pretty sure he was based in Kent and I seem to remember his name being Steve? Might have the name wrong, anyone know who I'm talking about/what happened to him?

Still on other Forum (TWO)...Steve (Gusty)

Edited January 10, 2017 by Kent Blizzard

[Alpine glow]

I've just seen a tweet from IF:   "Latest UKMO assessment for Thurs across S Eng indicates a low (20%) probability significant snow; medium (40%) prob mostly rain; & some snow"

[Captain Shortwave]

The FAX chart for Thursday does show an area of rain running along the channel into southern counties of England, the 528 dam line is moving southwards during this point, there could be snow on the northern edge especially over the hills. I suspect hills close to south London could get a little surprise potentially. 

 

Beyond this and the potential on Friday, we see yet another system slide down the north sea in cold air on Saturday according to the FAX charts

So again the risk of wintry showers with perhaps a dusting perhaps, again East Anglia favoured like Friday at the moment. Sunday looks fine and cold. Next week looks interesting with the models trending towards a possible cold easterly. Watch this space but the ECM ens are close to freezing by day.

[clark3r]

Wouldn't get hopes up to much for snow Thursday night! Hopefully we get the easterly next week! Will be good for our region!

Just as I wrote this we have an upgrade for Thursday on gfs!  Models still will change tomorrow though!

Edited January 10, 2017 by clark3r

[Ben Lewis]

Potential is definitely there for Thursday for county's south of London. 

Areas North of London looking increasingly likely the ppn will not even make it there. 

High res ppn charts also confirm this.

Also worth noting that the euro4 makes nothing of any rain to snow event for Thursday. 

Hopefully tomorrow afternoon will give clearer clarification 

 

Edited January 10, 2017 by Ben Lewis

[lassie23]

2 hours ago, shotski said:

Don't tell me, Iapennell LOL. 

But you could be correct. 

lol it was my own opinion for once

[Met4Cast]

This is encouraging!

 

[Ben Lewis]

BBC London just now:

"substantial amount of snow possible Thursday" 

whoaaaaaaaa....... nearly fell off my chair. 

Areas south of London really could have a nice surprise come Thursday afternoon 

national forecast just now; 

"snow will settle over the South & North downs" 

Guys in Surrey, Sussex and Kent = you guys could be looking at your first snow event of the season 

 

 

[Mark wheeler]

Like the look of this update from fergie 

https://mobile.twitter.com/fergieweather/status/818953186522333184

[steveinsussex]

crazy upgrade

 

 

no doubt it will change thursday morning

[Mark wheeler]

Oh no how will southern be able to operate all there trains in the snow on Thursday... wait a minute ...

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, Ben Lewis said:

Potential is definitely there for Thursday for county's south of London. 

Areas North of London looking increasingly likely the ppn will not even make it there. 

High res ppn charts also confirm this.

Also worth noting that the euro4 makes nothing of any rain to snow event for Thursday.

Hopefully tomorrow afternoon will give clearer clarification 

 

Hold up the Euro4 12z does quite convincingly what we see accessible to public domain only goes up to noon! 10cm possible for elevated areas of SE England . Posted by @snowking

 

Edited January 10, 2017 by Changing Skies

[Mark wheeler]

BBC forecast after news night just said perhaps snow especially in the southeast .

[Ben Lewis]

4 minutes ago, Changing Skies said:

Hold up the Euro4 12z does quite convincingly what we see accessible to public domain only goes up to noon! 10cm possible for elevated areas of SE England . Posted by @snowking

 

Yes, it was the previous run I saw.

Latest euro4 got areas south of London under a snow event!

Good luck to Surrey, Sussex, south London and Kent... could be a decent afternoon! 

[lawrenk]

6 minutes ago, Changing Skies said:

Hold up the Euro4 12z does quite convincingly what we see accessible to public domain only goes up to noon! 10cm possible for elevated areas of SE England . Posted by @snowking

 

Liking the look of that! 

Crowborough/Tun Wells could be the place to be.

 

[lawrenk]

10 minutes ago, Changing Skies said:

Hold up the Euro4 12z does quite convincingly what we see accessible to public domain only goes up to noon! 10cm possible for elevated areas of SE England . Posted by @snowking

 

Liking the look of that! 

Crowborough/Tun Wells could be the place to be.

Edit. What I really meant was the North West Highlands weighing in with 43cms!!

 

[Ben Lewis]

So after the earlier shenanigans of Friday Friday Friday.... Thursday was never of interest... blah blah

All of sudden - Thursday is the main day!!! 

Which is the same day the METO has warnings out.... funny that! 

[Met4Cast]

Bank. Bank. Bank!

[A Frayed Knot]

Booooom

[snowking]

And now we can see what all the fuss is about:

Obviously take exact track of this with adjustment in mind for now, but the risk of 10cm of snow showing for parts of east anglia in the space of a few hours

Plenty more ups and downs to come yet one suspects in the next 36 hours

[alexisj9]

23 minutes ago, Changing Skies said:

Hold up the Euro4 12z does quite convincingly what we see accessible to public domain only goes up to noon! 10cm possible for elevated areas of SE England . Posted by @snowking

 

wow love the look of that.

[Ben Lewis]

3 minutes ago, snowking said:

And now we can see what all the fuss is about:

Obviously take exact track of this with adjustment in mind for now, but the risk of 10cm of snow showing for parts of east anglia in the space of a few hours

Plenty more ups and downs to come yet one suspects in the next 36 hours

@snowking great looking chart that would see snow in Hertfordshire.

However TV forecasts are going with a possible south of London event.

What are your thoughts on northern Home Counties getting snow on Thursday? 

[Jimmyh]

Oh my God bankety bank I am right under that lot woop wooop