SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

[Ben Lewis]

Thursdays very low (unlikely as confirmed by met office) chance of snowfall set up always has my location St Albans, Herts as standing a good chance for ppn change over from rain to snow. 

However a complete now cast event, I can't see the rain band pushing further north than the M4 tbh. 

Surrey hills stand a better chance than the usual Chilterns tbh as I only see the northwards extent of ppn to south London. 

But like I said, all official sources claim a change over to snow will be unlikely! 

[weathergeek]

2 hours ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Timing of the precipitation on Thursday will be key, the later the better .....That's why the Meto have a very difficult calls to make across the country, I expect lots of changes to them warnings and the timings prior and during the event.

 This is what I've been saying - need that precipitation to arrive here about 6hrs later!!!

[Dami]

And BAM!

My sleet symbol is now back to rain.

\o.

[Met4Cast]

KABOOM!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Very snowy gfs 12z so far, we await the high res 

 

The rule, get the cold in first, snow will follow 

[Lampostwatcher]

Very interesting gfs 12z snow for us friday :-)

[Rob Deacon]

I ordered a new sledge Monday from Norway, it's being delivered on Thursday if on time

And I have new mud/snow tyres on the Hilux 4x4, so if the models suddenly back track on snow you know who to blame lol 

[Kent Blizzard]

1 minute ago, Rob Deacon said:

I ordered a new sledge Monday from Norway, it's being delivered on Thursday if on time

And I have new mud/snow tyres on the Hilux 4x4, so if the models suddenly back track on snow you know who to blame lol 

I'll just use a for sale board if it's deep enough  

[lassie23]

A warning tweet has been sent out for the entire SE region's residents by the ILSS , 'please do not get over excited by the POSSIBILITY of snow here at the end of the week, as we have been down this road many a time, Expect nothing to avoid disappointment and if we get something, you'll be surprised.' Good advice that

[Rob Deacon]

1 minute ago, Kent Blizzard said:

I'll just use a for sale board if it's deep enough  

I've always used random stuff for sledging, I once removed a car bonnet to use that 

But I have always wanted a proper old school wooden sledge, and with 3 kids it would get some good use if we get any.

[Kent Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Rob Deacon said:

I've always used random stuff for sledging, I once removed a car bonnet to use that 

But I have always wanted a proper old school wooden sledge, and with 3 kids it would get some good use if we get any.

If the kids are under the age of 6 and you had purchased it after 2010 you'd of had a long wait to use it .... unless it can turn into a dingy  

Edited January 10, 2017 by Kent Blizzard

[Ben Lewis]

7 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

A warning tweet has been sent out for the entire SE region's residents by the ILSS , 'please do not get over excited by the POSSIBILITY of snow here at the end of the week, as we have been down this road many a time, Expect nothing to avoid disappointment and if we get something, you'll be surprised.' Good advice that

Good call:

06z Arpege, WRF NMM & Hirlam keeps the majority of PPN in the channel for Thursday and temps to warm across southern counties should it push inland to just give a wintry Mess. (Sorry can't post charts as on phone)

Friday gives us a chance of snow on the GFS12z, however that's many hours away. Lots of things to go wrong before then! 

[SenlacJack]

58 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Very snowy gfs 12z so far, we await the high res 

 

The rule, get the cold in first, snow will follow 

Sorry but that is such an overused assumption, of course I hope you are right but that doesn't make it so.

[Dami]

All i know is that cold weather = cosy food so i made chicken hot pot.

Are we had least certain something will fall from the sky this week?

 

Edited January 10, 2017 by Dami

[slater]

yay after 4 years this room is alive, so many chop and changes on my weather app, one min I have snow for thurs and fri then then plain dry. in otherwords just going to be a waiting game 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

5 minutes ago, SenlacJack said:

Sorry but that is such an overused assumption, of course I hope you are right but that doesn't make it so.

Well no not if you got a massive high pressure cell with cold under cutting from the east and there is not a sniff of PPN. 

But that's not the case here, unstable northly, troughs, imbedded lows, potential other lows to form in the flow. 

But it's a known saying that first you must establish a cold flow or cold air and uppers to support snow. This semi eliminates the chance for any warmer sectors. Then you worry about PPN which can form minutes before in the form of showers or something more substantial like a trough of low. 

Given the massive amount of what COULD happen between now and Saturday, I'm glad we are getting the cold in first. 

 

[throwoff]

12z snow risk chart seems like Kent is in the firing line from Thursday afternoon...

[NO LONGER POSTING]

RE weather apps etc and the BBC symbols I think I say it each year, they are as good as a chocolate tea pot. They are simply computer generated and thrown on the screen with fancy graphics. Stick to the good old met office wording and fax charts. 

Then come in here and follow the links for the radar sat etc and watch stuff un fold live. 

[Ben Lewis]

5 minutes ago, throwoff said:

12z snow risk chart seems like Kent is in the firing line from Thursday afternoon...

12z GFS ppn charts are giving the usual blow up. 

You need to look at highRes. Arpege, WRF NMM & Hirlam (can't post as on iPhone - sorry)

ppn a lot more modest and keeps ppn into channel with temps to high across southern counties & Kent to provide nothing more than a Wintery mess at best should the ppn push in. 

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

3 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

12z GFS ppn charts are giving the usual blow up. 

You need to look at highRes. Arpege, WRF NMM & Hirlam (can't post as on iPhone - sorry)

ppn a lot more modest and keeps ppn into channel with temps to high across southern counties & Kent to provide nothing more than a Wintery mess at best should the ppn push in. 

 

Thursday no we are still establishing the cold, Friday maybe. That's where we wanna see things go our way. 

Then anything that may surprise us like showers etc 

Edited January 10, 2017 by Surrey

[lassie23]

19 minutes ago, Dami said:

All i know is that cold weather = cosy food so i made chicken hot pot.

Are we had least certain something will fall from the sky this week?

 

probably Mapantz new drone

[Captain Shortwave]

This is the fella that we need to keep an eye on

That wave moving south east will bring outbreaks of rain/sleet/snow (depending on many factors). This is shown on most of the models but of course the track and accompanying mild sectors are unknown, but we could get lucky, the GFS would deliver blizzards, especially across parts of East Anglia during the rush hour. For balance the arpege keep the low in the north east and delivers nothing, not even rain and is actually mostly dry from Thursday onwards apart from a little rain south of the M4/London on Thursday.

Edited January 10, 2017 by Captain Shortwave

[Long haul to mild]

Beware of taking anything too literally about Friday at this stage. There's a warm sector to that depression very close to the East coast which will keep ppn as rain or sleet for East Suffolk and Norfolk.

If that warm sector comes too much further West it will affect inland areas too. Ideally we want to see a tiny shift East of that mild sector so everyone gets snow but not too far East or there won't be enough ppn to begin with!

Talk about a knife edge situation. Lots of twists and turns to come no doubt!

[lassie23]

The solution will be something in the middle, a sleet fest

[Rob Deacon]

49 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

If the kids are under the age of 6 and you had purchased it after 2010 you'd of had a long wait to use it .... unless it can turn into a dingy  

They are 12,9 and 5 years old, so the youngest one doesn't remember ever seeing any snow yet.

I wont be able to wait that long lol, if we dont get snow within the next week or 2 I might take the family on a road trip to Europe for few days on a snow hunt.