SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

[MAF]

Yes, sub-zero "feel like" temps with the windchill. definietly an idea to wrap up when its like that, and not good for the elderly to be out and about in. Hypothermia can set in in the elderly very rapidly. So regardless of what the "real" temps are saying, worth checking the "feel like" temps out before venturing out.

[Daniel*]

6 hours ago, Long haul to mild said:

Well despite this Met Office graphic, I'll be staggered if I see any settling snow out of what is effectively a NW'ly.

Ten minutes of transient sleet is more likely going by past experience!

ECM precipitation charts are quite bullish on the precip. 

Well by Friday winds are essentially a northerly from the high Arctic picking up that moisture off the North Sea, good for the infamous triangle of doom? 

Ironically on Friday there is a bit of a mild sector coming down from the north, going south down the North Sea courtesy of a shortwave/low I'm not sure it could be a polar low tracking southwestwards down the North Sea. I suppose the sea level will respond to this, not great. 

ECM 00z T+96

ECM precip charts:

Not too dissimilar to 1953 synoptic chart for reference which resulted in disastrous flooding to the east coast and  the Thames Estuary. Quite strong N/NW'ly winds with a depression moving southeast down the North Sea. It's not a good mix combined with spring high tides. I'm not sure but does the upcoming active period coincide with a high spring tide?

@JennyJane1 I'd say there is a definite risk of a surge/coastal flooding along the east coast. I'd watch things closely. 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/in-depth/1953-east-coast-flood

 

Edited January 9, 2017 by Changing Skies
tidy up

[March]

I don't believe in windchill, especially for temps that aren't that cold anyway. It's a poor unspecific measure and a non event in these kinds of temps if you're wearing standard winter dress. 

[Kent Blizzard]

3 hours ago, Surrey said:

If we can fire up the Bristol channel snow machine I think some could see some snow as showers push right in land! 

If we can get the Cheshire Gap fired up it could well drive showers as far down as the far South East with the current wind/gusts forecasts to accompany it. Of course the strength of the showers will fade the further SE it moves but could provide at least a dusting for many areas...all Ifs and Buts,  but certainly some excited to watch at long last.

Edited January 9, 2017 by Kent Blizzard

[alexisj9]

29 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

If we can get the Cheshire Gap fired up it could well drive showers as far down as the far South East with the current wind/gusts forecasts to accompany it. Of course the strength of the showers will fade the further SE it moves but could provide at least a dusting for many areas...all Ifs and Buts,  but certainly some excited to watch at long last.

I don't expect anything from there this far SE. If it happens I'll enjoy it though of course. 

[stainesbloke]

2 hours ago, lassie23 said:

Are you visiting staines? It's always like that there.

Raining or boring?!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

48 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

If we can get the Cheshire Gap fired up it could well drive showers as far down as the far South East with the current wind/gusts forecasts to accompany it. Of course the strength of the showers will fade the further SE it moves but could provide at least a dusting for many areas...all Ifs and Buts,  but certainly some excited to watch at long last.

I have had dusting of snow from Cheshire gap showers a few times. It's bloody rare but does happen!! 

On the other hand.. Oh GEM you little tease! 

So from Wednesday evening through to Saturday the radar will be our friend and and the high res models picking up on anything we might miss that pops up. 

Who remembers a good few years back the snow event that was moving down the east coast. Think it was a little low like this. It was game on for us and it looked good odds for us to get loads of snow. Anyway the night before and in the morning the high res models decided that actually the low was going to dive west too early and the PPN would go north of us and move into the Irish Sea. I remove watching the radar at college and all the high res models had it moving over the Midlands etc etc. So I keep watching and it starts going more south like previously thought. And kept going and going then smacked London with loads of snow and the Midlands missed out. 

Going back to now this is why it's important to pay no notice to the kill joys in the model thread who wouldn't know the difference between a wind and rain chart and that each day something could arise that might have been previously missed. 

Most models (the high res do(some))  miss geographical features like the Cheshire gap and Bristol channel etc etc. 

Fun times ahead, and if we see no snow then it sure will be bloody cold!!  I think the - 6 record this winter could be beaten.. 

[slater]

So the fun begins, so my area has a yellow warning. This is what will really happen on thurs/ fri

strong north winds but all showers just out to sea.

loads of showers but more of mix rain/ sleet

full blown snow showers but miss them all

not even a shower to be seen.

lets watch this space, personally not getting to excited just yet!' Probably more high tides will be the main talking point for the east coast!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just did a little wee.. Oh ECM

Edited January 9, 2017 by Surrey

[OfficialKevWX]

Is it possible for us in the Souht East to get proper snow showers from the Cheshire Gap,

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, OfficialKevWX said:

Is it possible for us in the Souht East to get proper snow showers from the Cheshire Gap,

Where you are if they are strong enough to make it yes. But that can be a big if.

[Laurence Hill]

8 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Just did a little wee.. Oh ECM

Good evening Surrey

 

please can you explain why you wet your bed, learner lurking.

 

thanks

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 minute ago, Sharpedge said:

Good evening Surrey

 

please can you explain why you wet your bed, learner lurking.

 

thanks

It's a little way out so only a little wee,  but.. With that amount of cold air IF we had enough low pressure and wind we could have some serious beefy showers. 

Lower uppers = more potent showers 

[Hanny]

Oh dear - snow risk for my area has disappeared from the 10 day forecast. 

Could some say which model that the Netweather 10 day forecast is based on Netweather - thanks in advance.

[Jo S]

My snow risk for Friday 15 percent, expecting that to disappear into raindrops , but hey you never know lol

Edited January 9, 2017 by Jo S

[Jo S]

Yayyyyyyy just posted my 1000th post, with another lot of intelligent posting lol

[weathergeek]

12 minutes ago, Hanny said:

Oh dear - snow risk for my area has disappeared from the 10 day forecast. 

Could some say which model that the Netweather 10 day forecast is based on Netweather - thanks in advance.

I think it follows the GFS x

[Hanny]

Just now, weathergeek said:

I think it follows the GFS x

Okay - thanks 

[Kent Blizzard]

40 minutes ago, OfficialKevWX said:

Is it possible for us in the Souht East to get proper snow showers from the Cheshire Gap,

Read back through today's posts, should see some info regarding it....but yes it is.

[Kent Blizzard]

49 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Just did a little wee.. Oh ECM

Nice uppers and we look like well have the wind, quite a potent breeze too ....

We could always send out free Vindaloos to everyone round the Cheshire Gap area ...to generate a bigger blow

Edited January 9, 2017 by Kent Blizzard

[slater]

20 minutes ago, Jo S said:

My snow risk for Friday 15 percent, expecting that to disappear into raindrops , but hey you never know lol

Will chop and change as we get nearer, downside is by 2d half weekend looks like turning much milder early next week possibly 10/11c tho not set in stone charts all over the place at the minute 

[Kent Blizzard]

7 minutes ago, slater said:

Will chop and change as we get nearer, downside is by 2d half weekend looks like turning much milder early next week possibly 10/11c tho not set in stone charts all over the place at the minute 

Its a strange one this because going by the extended Meto write up although they say uncertainty they don't mention much in the way of milder weather up to the 24th, yet they have more information than us and at a faster timescale.

So personally I'm not looking past Saturday yet, lots of fun to get through first.

Edited January 9, 2017 by Kent Blizzard

[slater]

2 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Its a strange one this because going by the extended Meto write up although they say uncertainty they don't mention much in the way of milder weather up to the 24th.

Exactly what I thought, well confused this chart on is for Monday, 

[Captain Shortwave]

Another rather poor day, quite mild with a little rain. Colder weather is incoming though.

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Hanny said:

Oh dear - snow risk for my area has disappeared from the 10 day forecast. 

Could some say which model that the Netweather 10 day forecast is based on Netweather - thanks in advance.

GFS I believe, and that really was a dire run for long term cold.