SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, Sharpedge said:

Question for the more learned.

when and if London gets snow, which direction/system does it normally come from?

Thanks

 

Mostly the NE or E but it's not unknown for snow to come from the north, it depends on disturbances in the flow. NW London can sometimes get hit from the NW through the Cheshire Gap streamer, but other than that normally stay's dry and sunny.

[Captain Shortwave]

Fax charts will be out later so keep an eye on troughs and disturbances shown on the charts for Thursday and Friday. Too late for me as I am up at half 4 tomorrow.

Looking towards next weekend and beyond, the ECM ens are very good and keep us cold for the foreseeable though precipitation looks low unless we get a significant enough easterly with enough cold and low heights to develop showers. We will see I guess.

Oh I haven't actually mentioned the weather here today, well it was better than yesterday in the sense that there was a little sunshine, but not much else to report.

 

Edited January 8, 2017 by Captain Shortwave

[Norfolk_N_chance]

Can anyone confirm whether we are likely to see gale force winds from a northerly direction later this coming week?

We could be looking at another December 2013 tidal surge along the Norfolk coast as we are due rather large tides.

High tides, gale force winds and low pressure in the North Sea never mix well.

[OfficialKevWX]

Maybe some transient snow on Saturday?

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Norfolk_N_chance said:

Can anyone confirm whether we are likely to see gale force winds from a northerly direction later this coming week?

We could be looking at another December 2013 tidal surge along the Norfolk coast as we are due rather large tides.

High tides, gale force winds and low pressure in the North Sea never mix well.

I'm sure that's being monitored, if there is a chance of a surge there will be warnings, just keep a look out for those.

[March]

8 hours ago, Sharpedge said:

 Thanks for that Shotski, I get so confused on the Model forum and find that the non-coldies seem to be making negative comment just to wind people up.  Got to the stage that I only trust Steve Murr's posts now.

I remember a couple of years ago he said that because our winters were predominantly mild, it was very easy for some to forecast milder weather as the chances of it happening were pretty high.

I like someone like Steve who says it as it is.

Steve is a decent guy but is a classic cold ramper. The non-coldies are the only one's who usually call a spade a spade. 

[Kent Blizzard]

I'm going to enjoy model watching over the next 24/48hrs that's for sure & its certainly something we can all keep for future research and learning from.

.....enjoy the ride folks

[Kent Blizzard]

17 hours ago, Sharpedge said:

Question for the more learned.

when and if London gets snow, which direction/system does it normally come from?

Thanks

 

Hi, like others have stated obviously for our location in the SE we do better from E and even SE'ly if coming from a very cold continent. We can get snow from a N/NW'ly but plenty of factors need to fall in place and these type of events we look to be facing at the end of the week can be a very messy output, some would see snow some might not and only see rain on the leading edge, we certainly need it to slip further S as it moves across.

 

Edited January 9, 2017 by Kent Blizzard

[Kent Blizzard]

I reckon we should now introduce a BAN for anyone that asks will they or are they likely to see snow in their own back yard. This will be tricky enough without pinpointing precise locations for goodness sake   : 

BTW If you want entertainment the MO and the Moan/Ramp thread will be a blast over the next few days 

Edited January 9, 2017 by Kent Blizzard

[Kent Blizzard]

Take these type of charts with a pinch of salt really but the time frame does highlight the movement and tracking currently....

Favoured spots in this type of set-up come out not too bad at all

No problem with the upper level? could be marginal at lower levels for those in the firing line.

 

Plenty more runs required before we can take anything for granted and/or set in stone. It will be nice to see the Meto keep the Wintry Showers mention in the Outlook when it updates later.

EDIT: Meto Warnings out, but not for us as you can imagine at this early stage... Meto Warnings

I'm a little surprised more NW areas not included further inland but even for them plenty of time to be included BUT some strong wording in the warnings

Edited January 9, 2017 by Kent Blizzard

[MAF]

'noon All. I see the Met O has some warnings for snow out > http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1484265600 everywhere except us in the SE

[JennyJane1]

13 hours ago, Norfolk_N_chance said:

Can anyone confirm whether we are likely to see gale force winds from a northerly direction later this coming week?

We could be looking at another December 2013 tidal surge along the Norfolk coast as we are due rather large tides.

High tides, gale force winds and low pressure in the North Sea never mix well.

 

 

Timbo in Lowestoft said he feared there might be floods on the coasts at the end of the week, he advised me to keep an eye on any warnings, he said it might be as bad as 2013.

[Kent Blizzard]

Meto have update the further outlook but still waiting on the 5 day forecast... could be a good sign that we are waiting on that one

Met Office Outlook

Forecast summary

Regional

UK 5 days

UK 6-30 days

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Saturday 14 Jan 2017 to Monday 23 Jan 2017:

This weekend will start very cold with sunny spells and snow showers, the showers probably heaviest and most frequent in the north and northwest. It'll be windy with coastal gales, leading to a significant wind chill. Though there is considerable uncertainty, conditions are expected to become more changeable towards the end of the weekend, with rain and possible hill snow pushing west to east. However, the northwest is likely to see most of the rain, with further gales, whilst the southeast could see some more settled weather. Later next week confidence is low, but signs point towards a continuation of this northwest to southeast split, with the most unsettled weather affecting north-western parts, and a relatively more settled theme elsewhere, albeit with a risk of frost and fog.

Updated at: 1207 on Mon 9 Jan 2017

UK Outlook for Tuesday 24 Jan 2017 to Tuesday 7 Feb 2017:

Confidence is very low in details as we head towards the end of the month and beginning of February. However, bands of rain and possibly some, mostly mountain, snow are likely to affect the north and northwest at first, whilst periods of more settled weather are expected in the south, bringing a risk of frost and freezing fog. Temperatures are uncertain although slow changes between milder and colder conditions seem likely. Later, there is an increased preference for drier and colder weather to become established across the British Isles.

Updated at: 1208 on Mon 9 Jan 2017

 

Edited January 9, 2017 by Kent Blizzard

[throwoff]

It's very much all to play for in the models, there could be postcodes that differ by 1 number and see totally different levels of snow and rain. 

It will be a radar watcher

[NO LONGER POSTING]

If we can fire up the Bristol channel snow machine I think some could see some snow as showers push right in land! 

[lawrenk]

10 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Meto have update the further outlook but still waiting on the 5 day forecast... could be a good sign that we are waiting on that one

Met Office Outlook

Forecast summary

Regional

UK 5 days

UK 6-30 days

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Saturday 14 Jan 2017 to Monday 23 Jan 2017:

This weekend will start very cold with sunny spells and snow showers, the showers probably heaviest and most frequent in the north and northwest. It'll be windy with coastal gales, leading to a significant wind chill. Though there is considerable uncertainty, conditions are expected to become more changeable towards the end of the weekend, with rain and possible hill snow pushing west to east. However, the northwest is likely to see most of the rain, with further gales, whilst the southeast could see some more settled weather. Later next week confidence is low, but signs point towards a continuation of this northwest to southeast split, with the most unsettled weather affecting north-western parts, and a relatively more settled theme elsewhere, albeit with a risk of frost and fog.

Updated at: 1207 on Mon 9 Jan 2017

UK Outlook for Tuesday 24 Jan 2017 to Tuesday 7 Feb 2017:

Confidence is very low in details as we head towards the end of the month and beginning of February. However, bands of rain and possibly some, mostly mountain, snow are likely to affect the north and northwest at first, whilst periods of more settled weather are expected in the south, bringing a risk of frost and freezing fog. Temperatures are uncertain although slow changes between milder and colder conditions seem likely. Later, there is an increased preference for drier and colder weather to become established across the British Isles.

Updated at: 1208 on Mon 9 Jan 2017

 

I wonder if this last sentence (covering Feb) means colder than the already coldish conditions that are likely to be in place or merely the re emergence of the dreaded MLB!

It would be nice to think Feb might reward us with a stonking Scandi high and allow us to share in some of the white stuff that the North West seem likely to get later this week.

[Kent Blizzard]

26 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

I wonder if this last sentence (covering Feb) means colder than the already coldish conditions that are likely to be in place or merely the re emergence of the dreaded MLB!

It would be nice to think Feb might reward us with a stonking Scandi high and allow us to share in some of the white stuff that the North West seem likely to get later this week.

I noticed this also, obviously they are talking way into Fantasy Island but it's a nice trend....if it's one that's starting for the back end of Winter

It's interesting that the longer forecast has been issued earlier than the next few days, perhaps a lot of head scratching at HQ, It'll be interesting if Fergie gives us any information.

33 minutes ago, Surrey said:

If we can fire up the Bristol channel snow machine I think some could see some snow as showers push right in land! 

Indeed Surrey, Indeed.....Certainly plenty of radar watching coming up  Those more North in this Thread will certainly be interested.

Edited January 9, 2017 by Kent Blizzard

[Long haul to mild]

Well despite this Met Office graphic, I'll be staggered if I see any settling snow out of what is effectively a NW'ly.

Ten minutes of transient sleet is more likely going by past experience!

Edited January 9, 2017 by Long haul to mild

[Kent Blizzard]

11 minutes ago, Long haul to mild said:

Well despite this Met Office graphic, I'll be staggered if I see any settling snow out of what is effectively a NW'ly.

Ten minutes of transient sleet is more likely going by past experience!

Flip of a coin.

I'm also looking at a band of rain that moves in over the weekend from the West and when we have quite cold conditions sitting over us. This could also give a little surprise to those on higher ground in our Region.

[stainesbloke]

Another grotty day here, raining again, boring! 

[lassie23]

1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

Another grotty day here, raining again, boring! 

Are you visiting staines? It's always like that there.

[Kent Blizzard]

Awoooooooga start writing the front pages...

The nice computer generated forecasts from google give me rain and snow symbols for Fri & Sat ....First time in a long long long time.

LOL

 

[March]

For all the talk of cold coming, because the forecast have been milder than reality here it's going to actually be the same to slightly warmer here than it's been. 

[Kent Blizzard]

3 minutes ago, March said:

For all the talk of cold coming, because the forecast have been milder than reality here it's going to actually be the same to slightly warmer here than it's been. 

It'll be the windchill that'll make it feel different than currently, them gusts will make the feel factor tumble quite a bit.

Edited January 9, 2017 by Kent Blizzard

[Dami]

Deffo a wind chill out and quite a strong breeze too with a little rain. It's beginning to feel a lot like winter.