SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

[alexisj9]

30 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Beeb are going for a 4 day cold spell with northerly winds, which usually means sunny and cold here, but dry.

Well I'm hoping for a Kent clipper streamer if the wind is direct north here, if there's any west in it the showers, if any, will be out at sea.

[pegg24]

Some of the pics of snow in Italy  are crazy. Everything would collapse at the Seam s here 

Edited January 8, 2017 by pegg24

[Dami]

9 minutes ago, pegg24 said:

Some of the pics of snow in Italy  are crazy. Everything would collapse at the Seam s here 

considering all the strikes, no one doing anything if it does snow anyway.

On the subject no snow for the weekend please, bubs has a party.

Edited January 8, 2017 by Dami

[Laurence Hill]

Question for the more learned.

when and if London gets snow, which direction/system does it normally come from?

Thanks

 

Edited January 8, 2017 by Sharpedge

[shotski]

4 minutes ago, Sharpedge said:

Question for the more learned.

when and if London gets snow, which direction/system does it normally come from?

Thanks

 

I'm certainly no expert like some on here but from previous experience I would say a continental easterly and a Thames streamer. We don't tend to do great from a northerly and less so a north westerly. 

[Laurence Hill]

1 minute ago, shotski said:

I'm certainly no expert like some on here but from previous experience I would say a continental easterly and a Thames streamer. We don't tend to do great from a northerly and less so a north westerly. 

 Thanks for that Shotski, I get so confused on the Model forum and find that the non-coldies seem to be making negative comment just to wind people up.  Got to the stage that I only trust Steve Murr's posts now.

I remember a couple of years ago he said that because our winters were predominantly mild, it was very easy for some to forecast milder weather as the chances of it happening were pretty high.

I like someone like Steve who says it as it is.

[shotski]

5 minutes ago, Sharpedge said:

 Thanks for that Shotski, I get so confused on the Model forum and find that the non-coldies seem to be making negative comment just to wind people up.  Got to the stage that I only trust Steve Murr's posts now.

I remember a couple of years ago he said that because our winters were predominantly mild, it was very easy for some to forecast milder weather as the chances of it happening were pretty high.

I like someone like Steve who says it as it is.

No probs, also keep an eye on knockers posts and John Holmes , if they mention cold weather you know your on to something. On tonight's 12z ECM we want to be looking at something like the chart below at day 8. 

this chart in my opinion would be the best set up for us. 

[Guest]

My Facebook is alive with people quoting the daily mail and express saying snowmageddon is on the way lol! Thought I would come in here and ask people who could tell me the truth

[slater]

7 minutes ago, madmunch said:

My Facebook is alive with people quoting the daily mail and express saying snowmageddon is on the way lol! Thought I would come in here and ask people who could tell me the truth

Hey, don't believe the papers for starters this is being going on with those idiots who write those stories past 4 winters. Current set for our region for end of week/sat showing cold winds from N/NW so for us here in this kind of set up the chance of a light snow showers, 10%. If you wanna see snow I'd head up North where they possibly could see a few inches but no snowmageddon 

Edited January 8, 2017 by slater

[lassie23]

5 minutes ago, madmunch said:

My Facebook is alive with people quoting the daily mail and express saying snowmageddon is on the way lol! Thought I would come in here and ask people who could tell me the truth

Never listen to those papers madmunch, they quote complete nobs like madden and piers who can't forecast the weather from their elbow.

[slater]

Currently, London looks like a place least likely to get snow. Greater chance of it being dry & sunny. Nothing to get too excited about... this quote just from Liam Dutton on Twitter, From Channel 4 weather

E ANGLIA: Colder from Thurs, but too early to say if there'll be any snow. Given N or NW'ly winds, likely to be marginal. Watch this space! Also this quote from Dan Holly from WeatherQuest in Norwich, I always trust these guys spot on most of the time

Edited January 8, 2017 by slater

[pegg24]

I know normally the toys get throw on the model forum. But tonight people are looking for the downgrades it's actually seems that's what they want before it actually happens. Lol

[PLANET THANET]

1 minute ago, pegg24 said:

I know normally the toys get throw on the model forum. But tonight people are looking for the downgrades it's actually seems that's what they want before it actually happens. Lol

Hi there

I  believe they are trying to be more realistic just in case the GFS is correct and the others are wrong ie.....preparing for the worst scenario that is on offer !!! which still offers cold but not as long

[pegg24]

Just now, PLANET THANET said:

Hi there

I  believe they are trying to be more realistic just in case the GFS is correct and the others are wrong ie.....preparing for the worst scenario that is on offer !!! which still offers cold but not as long

 

My feet are firmly on the ground at the moment.

[PLANET THANET]

Just now, pegg24 said:

 

My feet are firmly on the ground at the moment.

with a lot of luck you might find that your feet will be on snow 

[Captain Shortwave]

Conditions do look cold enough for snow by the end of the week and into the weekend, the two questions are that initially will the showers be able to penetrate inland and as such reach us from the north west, the second of course is whether we can get a more northerly flow to bring showers in from the north sea which by then the airmass is cold enough for snow at low levels.

      

      

Using the ECM as in my belief it is probably the closest to what I think the correct solution will be, touch and go but I hope we can see a dusting in places along with some hard frosts at night. The ECM would definitely bring snow showers into eastern Norfolk and Suffolk for a start.

Edited January 8, 2017 by Captain Shortwave

[Dazaaa07]

What is the chances of this reaching Peterborough? 

[Methuselah]

16 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Conditions do look cold enough for snow by the end of the week and into the weekend, the two questions are that initially will the showers be able to penetrate inland and as such reach us from the north west, the second of course is whether we can get a more northerly flow to bring showers in from the north sea which by then the airmass is cold enough for snow at low levels.

      

      

Using the ECM as in my belief it is probably the closest to what I think the correct solution will be, touch and go but I hope we can see a dusting in places along with some hard frosts at night. The ECM would definitely bring snow showers into eastern Norfolk and Suffolk for a start.

Aye, us Trianglers might see some action...?

[Captain Shortwave]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Aye, us Trianglers might see some action...?

Well obviously because I am no longer there. 

Edited January 8, 2017 by Captain Shortwave

[lassie23]

The UKMO was correct last time whilst out on its own, hopefully it won't be the same for the GFS, always the one that shows no snow is correct lol

[PLANET THANET]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

The UKMO was correct last time whilst out on its own, hopefully it won't be the same for the GFS, always the one that shows no snow is correct lol

unfortunately at this present time, NOAA prefer the GFS but even their confidence is only average.

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Well obviously because I am no longer there. 

Well you have haven't missed much...We're still waiting for the other 96 out 100 days of snow! We might even get it down to 94, should the snowfall straddle midnight?

Edited January 8, 2017 by Ed Stone

[Stuie]

Well I am crossing everything for Saturday which at the minute is rain. This is incoming from the west but as Captain says if we can get a northerly then we may drag in the tail of the low coming down the North sea but that`s a bit straw clutching (So is this Sat chart but hey come on!)

Edit: Wet bulb not the best but hopefully some correction.(dewpoints are a given far east)

Edited January 8, 2017 by Stuie W

[JennyJane1]

3 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Well I am crossing everything for Saturday which at the minute is rain. This is incoming from the west but as Captain says if we can get a northerly then we may drag in the tail of the low coming down the North sea but that`s a bit straw clutching (So is this Sat chart but hey come on!)

If i'm not mistaken, your chart shows snow for this area.

[Stuie]

Just edited JennyJane, the Wetbulb freezing level isn`t there for the time of the precip chart. Being soo far off there is everything to play for IMO in regards to the timing of the front coming in.

Edit: Yes Yarmouth your area has a decent chance imo

Edited January 8, 2017 by Stuie W