SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

[alexisj9]

It is now very still outside, the sky is clear, a nice mist is building, temp dropping slowly. Currently 4.6

[Blessed Weather]

36 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Right given we have almost reached the end of November, I might as well have a go at a winter forecast.

(snipped)

Thank you Captain for your thoughts on how the current early signs for this winter might play out and impact our Region with regard sunshine, rainfall and temps.

As is probably obvious from the tone of my posts, I can't hide the fact that the prospect of a 'proper' cold and hopefully snowy winter is music to my ears, and I suspect many others too. So I'm hoping you are on the money with your forecast. Good luck!

Oh, by the way, your sentence "the highest rainfall will tend to be near coastal parts of the regions which will be more prone to showers" is missing the words 'heavy snow' in front of the word showers!

[Captain Shortwave]

10 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

Thank you Captain for your thoughts on how the current early signs for this winter might play out and impact our Region with regard sunshine, rainfall and temps.

As is probably obvious from the tone of my posts, I can't hide the fact that the prospect of a 'proper' cold and hopefully snowy winter is music to my ears, and I suspect many others too. So I'm hoping you are on the money with your forecast. Good luck!

Oh, by the way, your sentence "the highest rainfall will tend to be near coastal parts of the regions which will be more prone to showers" is missing the words 'heavy snow' in front of the word showers!

Well in this case the answer is hopefully yes, if we get some cold easterly or northerly winds then I hope we can get some heavy snow showers across parts of the region, not to mention to risk of fronts moving down from the Arctic or off the continent to give more widespread events.

Anyway the difficulty will be spotting when the cold pattern starts to take hold. A lot of downbeat posts in the model thread this morning, but for me the ECM holds interest in its idea, we need to watch for when we start to get heights cut off to the north of the UK, be it Iceland/Greenland/Scandinavia. The ECM might be hinting at the future movement of the model output there.

Back to the here and now, a lot of cloud in Rayleigh with just a few holes for the sun to try and shine through.

Edited November 27, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[lassie23]

For those who can't be bothered with the MOD thread, , cold spell for December is over........again. Think the MOD thread should be closed down for a week, to give the models time to get a grip.

[Mark wheeler]

8 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

For those who can't be bothered with the MOD thread, , cold spell for December is over........again. Think the MOD thread should be closed down for a week, to give the models time to get a grip.

I think it's about to go off in there . I'm just popping down the shop to get some popcorn.

an overcast start here with a little drizzle . Hopefully we will get some sun later . The last couple of days have bee beautiful. We are hoping to have a family bike ride later if things brighten up so fingers crossed.

Edited November 27, 2016 by Mark wheeler

[lassie23]

9 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

I think it's about to go off in there . I'm just popping down the shop to get some popcorn.

lol Last time I checked, the December cold spell had  been dumped by the sounds of things.

Edited November 27, 2016 by lassie23

[Mark wheeler]

1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

lol, Yup winter has all but been dumped by the sounds of things, last time I checked.

Lots of frustration , reading between the lines the charts look like some improvement downstream so it looks like patience is the key . Lots of frustration in there and it bubbles over . I can't help but read every day but I don't have the time to analyse the charts on a daily basis . That said if I did I would be a nervous wreck by now.

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Lots of frustration , reading between the lines the charts look like some improvement downstream so it looks like patience is the key . Lots of frustration in there and it bubbles over . I can't help but read every day but I don't have the time to analyse the charts on a daily basis . That said if I did I would be a nervous wreck by now.

Personally, I don't see winter getting going until Christmas time on wards.

[stainesbloke]

Murky start this morning, hopefully the cloud will break up soon giving some nice late Autumn sunshine 

[Kent Blizzard]

Any real cold and snow before Christmas is very rare, 2010 was a history maker etc.

I'd rather the models gave a clear indication than lead folk up the garden path, atleast we all know where we stand currently.

Its time to look at the festive winter scenes on TV and on the front of cards and think " what if "

 

[alexisj9]

Cloudy start, sun starting to shine through now. Over night low of 4.3. Today's high so far 8.4

[lassie23]

-3c expected here wednesday morning

[March]

Given that it's been a colder than normal November, I'm still looking at reaching only the average amount of air frosts for the area. 

[alexisj9]

over night low 4.9 here, up to 5.9 now, sunny.

[lassie23]

High pressure looks to be in the wrong place on the models, for snow

[seaside 60]

At last lovely start, bright and sunny, clear skies 6c, feels a lot cooler to.

Everything starting to dry up at last with the dry air.

[lassie23]

4 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

At last lovely start, bright and sunny, clear skies 6c, feels a lot cooler to.

Everything starting to dry up at last with the dry air.

Worse thing about winter, gloom, dampness and way too much darkness

[Blessed Weather]

I'm looking forward to a couple of days of crisp, sunny late Autumn weather. I live a 100 yards from the River Brett in the Hadleigh 'valley' surrounded by hills, so on a clear night I've measured a 2C difference between down here and on the top of the nearby hills. So interestingly, the Met Office station just up the road and on high ground had an overnight min of 2.5C last night (at 08.00); in my back garden it measured 0.4C at that time.

A hard frost for all but the extreme coasts tonight:

[Ben Lewis]

My second best winter weather type over the next 7 days and possibly longer! 

Cold and dry, temps set to fall to -5c in parts of Hertfordshire tonight, leading to a sparkling sunny crisp winters day tomorrow 

Mover the moon there is no Atlantic in sight, can't bare boring mild wet and windy low pressure systems - makes winter evenings even more dreary. 

And the fields are drying out for the dog walks! horrah...... 

[alexisj9]

By the way, was it supposed to be windy today, wind is blowing between 35-40 mph here at the min, bringing with it low DP. Currently that's at -0.2, temp still at 4.5 though.

[Kent Blizzard]

Lovely sunny start to the working week, prefer this than the foggy, damp, dark and basically doom and gloom type weather.

Very good week ahead for getting the ground temps down., much more seasonal than the last could of late Autumn/early Winter weather.

Looks like it could be set in for a good while also, well between a few cloudy days here and there. Christmas weekend is long long away BUT I for one would settle for a decent crisp, clear sunny day with a frosty start.

I see IF say early Dec remains finely balanced between high pressure remaining dominant, or rather more changeable weather

.......So those seeking something more wintry don't give up all hope just yet. Personally like I always say, lets get some decent dry cold weather in first, fabulous ingredients for later down the line.

Note: Alexis it's fairly calm here currently but I do expect the breeze to get going this afternoon to add to the chill factor.

Edited November 28, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[stainesbloke]

Really nice day here despite the strong E'ly breeze. Clear blue skies and sunshine all day, should be pretty chilly tonight. 

[Kent Blizzard]

All about the longer term pattern ...problem is probably wouldn't bring snow though 

Ian Fergusson Twitter

GloSea5 has remained consistent re Dec signal (esp from mid-month) & w pretty close ECMWF support. Colder Dec-Jan favoure

Edited November 28, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[Methuselah]

12 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Really nice day here despite the strong E'ly breeze. Clear blue skies and sunshine all day, should be pretty chilly tonight. 

Same here...Could be our coldest night since late 2012?

[stainesbloke]

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Same here...Could be our coldest night since late 2012?

BBC showing -7 in rural parts, brrr! Could well be. Hope this weather type features strongly this winter, very pleasant.