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SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion


A.J

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1 minute ago, pinball wizard said:

Force 11 winds being forecast in the shipping forecast now

Still an enormous amount of shipping in the Channel, including the QM2 and the Queen Elizabeth, which both set off about 5pm. Some cruisers are going to have to get their sea legs very quickly! :bad:

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1 minute ago, katemart said:

Still an enormous amount of shipping in the Channel, including the QM2 and the Queen Elizabeth, which both set off about 5pm. Some cruisers are going to have to get their sea legs very quickly! :bad:

Very true!!! Wightlink ferries to portsmouth are suspended now, my trip over the solent in the morning will be an interesting one. bring it on!

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@Surrey What's your take on these WX Weather charts? Is that the small area of the sting jet I've highlighted tracking across Southern UK, or the 'quiet' eye of the Low where there's little wind? The problem is WX use almost the same colour for 118 kph winds as 5 kph! Doh!

It's just that the BBC graphic I posted this afternoon (for 05.00) had an area of 70 mph winds associated with the centre of the storm tracking almost exactly across the same route!

03.00 WXChart 20Nov 03.00.jpg 06.00 WXChart 20Nov 06.00.jpg 09.00 WXChart 20Nov 09.00.jpg

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3 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

@Surrey What's your take on these WX Weather charts? Is that the small area of the sting jet I've highlighted tracking across Southern UK, or the 'quiet' eye of the Low where there's little wind? The problem is WX use almost the same colour for 118 kph winds as 5 kph! Doh!

It's just that the BBC graphic I posted this afternoon (for 05.00) had an area of 70 mph winds associated with the centre of the storm tracking almost exactly across the same route!

03.00 WXChart 20Nov 03.00.jpg 06.00 WXChart 20Nov 06.00.jpg 09.00 WXChart 20Nov 09.00.jpg

The sting jet would be much further south of that. It will be on the back side of the storm where the precip wrap around ends in a point. 

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9 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

@Surrey What's your take on these WX Weather charts? Is that the small area of the sting jet I've highlighted tracking across Southern UK, or the 'quiet' eye of the Low where there's little wind? The problem is WX use almost the same colour for 118 kph winds as 5 kph! Doh!

It's just that the BBC graphic I posted this afternoon (for 05.00) had an area of 70 mph winds associated with the centre of the storm tracking almost exactly across the same route!

03.00 WXChart 20Nov 03.00.jpg 06.00 WXChart 20Nov 06.00.jpg 09.00 WXChart 20Nov 09.00.jpg

That's the center of the low on there BB :)

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Thanks guys ^^. Still a little niggle in my head as Fergie's latest tweet predicts the sting coming ashore between Portland Bill and Isle of Wight at 00.00 to 03.00 and that first WX chart for 03.00 shows that small area in exactly that area. His tweet:

Fergie tweet 20 Nov.jpg

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There are lots of ifs and buts right now. We are assuming that the models have detected the conditions for a sting jet to develop. But we also require something called Conditional Symmetric Instability (CSI) to be present. Certainly strong sting jets only occur in storms which develop CSI in the hook-shaped cloud (where the wrap around on the back side of this storm forms a point)

It is worth noting however that equally damaging winds might occur in localised squalls within the larger system such as we see in the Plymouth area right now

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9 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Thanks guys ^^. Still a little niggle in my head as Fergie's latest tweet predicts the sting coming ashore between Portland Bill and Isle of Wight at 00.00 to 03.00 and that first WX chart for 03.00 shows that small area in exactly that area. His tweet:

Fergie tweet 20 Nov.jpg

Indeed, it is quite puzzling strongest winds are found close to the tail should give you a general idea below.

image.jpegimage.jpegimage.jpegimage.jpeg

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