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SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

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Just now, nwextremeweather said:

People need to be able to make alternative plans now for the likely travel disruption when they wake up...thats the whole point of warnings. They are no use after the event

But red warnings are are aimed at imminent danger to life or property, not to inform people they might not be able to go to nan's for Sunday lunch tomorrow...

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9 minutes ago, Lauren said:

I have an inkling that Sunday morning football might be cancelled.....

LOL....I have an inkling Sunday might be cancelled

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Absoultey hammering down

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Just now, bobbydog said:

But red warnings are are aimed at imminent danger to life or property, not to inform people they might not be able to go to nan's for Sunday lunch tomorrow...

There is a small chance red warnings may be released tomorrow rush hour.. I presume some of the strongest winds will occur in southeasterly regions by that time. Falling trees will likely be an issue so I'd consider that a danger to life, owing to how many people are caught out in cars from falling trees, out walking etc in these severe storms.

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2 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

There is a small chance red warnings may be released tomorrow rush hour.. I presume some of the strongest winds will occur in southeasterly regions by that time. Falling trees will likely be an issue so I'd consider that a danger to life, owing to how many people are caught out in cars from falling trees, out walking etc in these severe storms.

Not much of a rush hour on a Sunday, thankfully.

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Impressive arc of rainfall on the radar, and latest wind gust on the South Coast already up to 53 mph with many hours to go before the peak of this storm.

22.05 Radar 19Nov 22.05.jpg 22.08 XCWeather 22.08.jpg

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24 minutes ago, Hurricane Debby said:

Thank you so much SenlacJack ! I love it here so much and SO glad I moved her. My little gazebo is already struggling !!

You're welcome HD and pleased to hear you are enjoying it here. It's a great place to be.

On a weather note the wind is really starting to ramp up now and the worst is yet to come. Stay safe folks.

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Now down to 974mb...

 

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6 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

There is a small chance red warnings may be released tomorrow rush hour.. I presume some of the strongest winds will occur in southeasterly regions by that time. Falling trees will likely be an issue so I'd consider that a danger to life, owing to how many people are caught out in cars from falling trees, out walking etc in these severe storms.

Bearing in mind it's Sunday tomorrow, there isn't really a "rush hour". The Met office issue warnings based on the weather impacts. Red is issued when it directly impacts the public. To be fair, not everyone reads weather forecasts and those who do would know there are already warnings out so should be prepared accordingly. There's no accounting for lack of common sense!

Edited by bobbydog

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Could someone please shed some light for me on the tail comments?  Does that mean the conditions have improved or worsened since first thought? 

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19 minutes ago, nwextremeweather said:

If this storm does turn nasty, the MET is playing it too cool. What is the use of issuing a red warning at 3am when everyone is in bed, they should be doing it now

 

If?  So should the warning be 'We're the Met Office and we are going to say ' look out, it's RED if it goes nasty'?  The MO should only do what all their expertise and knowledge and experience suggests they should.  They might get it wrong with warnings, but generally they get it right.  More so than us lot on an amateur site with no responsibility to the public.   They surely can't issue a warning that says ' looks quite bad but could be much worse if we are wrong'.  Otherwise they'd have to issue that exact warning every time.  The MO get lots of stick on here about warnings, not sure most of it is justified.

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16 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

But red warnings are are aimed at imminent danger to life or property, not to inform people they might not be able to go to nan's for Sunday lunch tomorrow...

Red Warning- don't go to Nan's tomorrow. She was crushed by a gazebo whilst surfing on Brighton beach.

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As someone mentioned earlier I think, the use of amber and red alerts are used sparingly as they trigger various contingency plans with government, local councils, emergency services, utility companies and many more sectors. For example in my industry (aviation based) an amber alert for snow would involve placing additional staff on standby and readying equipment and a red alert would likely involve a shut-down of the operation (one of the options anyway). Both of these cost time and money so the MetO do not take such decisions lightly. 

For example the main electricity company in the affected area tonight, UKPowerNetworks will most likely have brought in additional engineering staff for their nightshift as part of their contingency plan. They may also be readying additional generating equipment too. This is where the cost comes in.

Edited by jamesbhx

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2 minutes ago, madmunch said:

Could someone please shed some light for me on the tail comments?  Does that mean the conditions have improved or worsened since first thought? 

Here's a fairly simple explanation from the Met Office about a 'sting jet', which is named as such because the signature swirl of cloud resembles a scorpions tail.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/2/p/Sting_Jet_Flyer.PDF

But basically it's a narrow band of very strong wind up to 30 miles across, so it's not good news if one does occur (and we can't be certain about that occurring tonight). But it's what caused the most severe swathe of damage in 1987. 

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After some early rain, pretty calm here 

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AROME model picking up on a few things:

 

convective structures (bowing segments mainly) along leading edge of dry intrusion in narrow band of very high LL shear and low CAPE environment. There are hints at narrow "high gust corridors" further inland as well, potentially affecting Hampshire, Surrey, etc. as well around 03-06Z. 
 

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5 minutes ago, Surrey said:

AROME model picking up on a few things:

 

convective structures (bowing segments mainly) along leading edge of dry intrusion in narrow band of very high LL shear and low CAPE environment. There are hints at narrow "high gust corridors" further inland as well, potentially affecting Hampshire, Surrey, etc. as well around 03-06Z. 
 

Does it look bad?

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1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Does it look bad?

Yeah.. Notice the "streaks" in the wind gust this is what people have been talking about all day..

arome 1.jpgarome 2.jpgarome 3.jpgarome 4.jpgarome 5.jpg

Here is the Rainfall.. Notice the very intense showers following in behind the main band these are the little "stings"

rain 3.png

Edited by Surrey

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3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Does it look bad?

 

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

Yeah..

arome 1.jpgarome 2.jpgarome 3.jpgarome 4.jpgarome 5.jpg

It does look bad. Those colours really clash...

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10 minutes ago, Surrey said:

AROME model picking up on a few things:

 

convective structures (bowing segments mainly) along leading edge of dry intrusion in narrow band of very high LL shear and low CAPE environment. There are hints at narrow "high gust corridors" further inland as well, potentially affecting Hampshire, Surrey, etc. as well around 03-06Z. 
 

 

Presumably, low CAPE would indicate surface-based cells? 

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21 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Here's a fairly simple explanation from the Met Office about a 'sting jet', which is named as such because the signature swirl of cloud resembles a scorpions tail.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/2/p/Sting_Jet_Flyer.PDF

But basically it's a narrow band of very strong wind up to 30 miles across, so it's not good news if one does occur (and we can't be certain about that occurring tonight). But it's what caused the most severe swathe of damage in 1987. 

Thank you very much Blessed, i will have a read of it now

 

 

 

Could someone oplease shed some light for me on the tail comments?  Does that mean the conditions have improved or worsened since first thought? 

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Going to be an interesting night me thinks,already blowing a hoolie outside and hammering it down,expecting disruption from this storm,stay safe peeps

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