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SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion


A.J

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Wind very slowly increasing here inland from not a breath of wind am hour ago is now a gentle breeze. Some amazing skies from what I can see racing past 

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24 minutes ago, Lauren said:

It's slightly damp outside. Though bbc don't seem to be going for windy.

Blimey, the bbc and met office are forecasting winds gusting up to 70-80mph . if thats not windy I don't know what is ;-)

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16 minutes ago, Changing Skies said:

Blooming hell I did have a feeling this might be one to surprise. 

One of the reasons I posted the water vapour link a few pages back. The dry slot of frigid arctic air is a classic precursor and you can see why in latest image. The cloud head development is just disappearng into the dry air.

Storm number two in embryo stage west of La Coruna.

seviri_eurnat_wv6-2_20161119_2100.jpg

 

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8 hours ago, leedsnowfan said:

Yeah im still getting 54mph as top gust at 4am on BBC recent update

Well I've already had a 52 mph gust and the winds have just started. How far away is the storm, and is it moving through early?

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The forecasts given to transport, local authority and so on are more severe than those for public consumption. That is a good indicator that the severity will be greater than most are thinking.

As a veteran of the Storm of '87, my well meant advice is that people should not sleep in caravans, mobile homes or other flimsy structures tonight.

 

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6 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Weatherman Dan Holley has just tweeted the latest Euro4 take on things. potentially very nasty for SE Kent and Sussex and Hampshire coasts.

Dan Holley tweet 19Nov.jpg

"staplehurst" (as he is known on here) is a damn good forecaster.  I was browsing the Learners section last night and found a question he posed many years ago, prefixed with the explanation that he was a second-year Undergraduate!  We can therefore take some collective credit for his success!:drunk-emoji:

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2 minutes ago, nwextremeweather said:

The forecasts given to transport, local authority and so on are more severe than those for public consumption. That is a good indicator that the severity will be greater than most are thinking.

As a veteran of the Storm of '87, my well meant advice is that people should not sleep in caravans, mobile homes or other flimsy structures tonight.

 

Sounds bad.  Stay safe, south coast members!

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4 hours ago, SenlacJack said:

Hello HD and welcome to 1066 Country, you won't regret moving here I'm sure, I certainly haven't. 

As much as I enjoy eventful weather I do have some concerns about this storm for no particular reason. If you can't secure your gazebo this evening you may have to try and find it somewhere in Kent tomorrow !

Thank you so much SenlacJack ! I love it here so much and SO glad I moved her. My little gazebo is already struggling !!

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Should start seeing increased winds quite rapidly after midnight across the region..

Interesting night ahead stay safe and batten down the hatches 

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33 minutes ago, SenlacJack said:

Blimey, the bbc and met office are forecasting winds gusting up to 70-80mph . if thats not windy I don't know what is ;-)

Oh that's odd. Max wind speed when I looked was 18mph.

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2 minutes ago, pinball wizard said:

Haha im looking forward to my ferry crossing from the isle of wight to portsmouth in the morning!!

Good luck with that one.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/IMAGERY/WV062/BW/CENTRALEUROPE/

In this EUMETSAT water vapour image, that is a possible "dry slot intrusion" (my guesswork), a known precursor of a sting jet if the system is deepening rapidly.

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7 minutes ago, nwextremeweather said:

If this storm does turn nasty, the MET is playing it too cool. What is the use of issuing a red warning at 3am when everyone is in bed, they should be doing it now

 

You just answered your own question. Red warnings are issued relating to impact. If everyone is in bed then few people will be affected. Those who are up (like night shift workers) will be informed by the warnings.

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The met should have red warnings plastered all over the south and southeast right now. At 974mb as we speak that is serious business. Look at the areas to be impacted, the population density and likely travel disruption qualify for red warnings. Somebody needs to get their finger out

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8 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Should start seeing increased winds quite rapidly after midnight across the region..

Interesting night ahead stay safe and batten down the hatches 

That's quite concerning. I haven't got a hatch. I might have to go outside and build one!

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2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

You just answered your own question. Red warnings are issued relating to impact. If everyone is in bed then few people will be affected. Those who are up (like night shift workers) will be informed by the warnings.

People need to be able to make alternative plans now for the likely travel disruption when they wake up...thats the whole point of warnings. They are no use after the event

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21 minutes ago, nwextremeweather said:

The forecasts given to transport, local authority and so on are more severe than those for public consumption. That is a good indicator that the severity will be greater than most are thinking.

As a veteran of the Storm of '87, my well meant advice is that people should not sleep in caravans, mobile homes or other flimsy structures tonight.

 

Hoping all those in the less sturdy locations stay safe, not to mention those who have to work tonight in the emergency services outside, utilities or transport networks.

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