SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

[Mapantz]

It's very difficult to forecast a sting jet from the synoptics available to the public. The MetO would have more up to date info coming in, so they could anticipate this. On a few occasions, when storms have good timing with the FAX chart updates, you can sometimes see a back-bent occlusion on them- which is usually the sign that a sting jet occurred. The term tends to get banded around a lot now, as soon as a deep-ish low develops and heads towards the UK.

Just to add; The strongest winds will be on the southern flank, so if one were to occur, it would be likely that Benelux would take the brunt of it, with a low risk of the far SE corner catching some of it.

Edited November 19, 2016 by Mapantz

[leedsnowfan]

7 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

It's very difficult to forecast a sting jet from the synoptics available to the public. The MetO would have more up to date info coming in, so they could anticipate this. On a few occasions, when storms have good timing with the FAX chart updates, you can sometimes see a back-bent occlusion on them- which is usually the sign that a sting jet occurred. The term tends to get banded around a lot now, as soon as a deep-ish low develops and heads towards the UK.

Just to add; The strongest winds will be on the southern flank, so if one were to occur, it would be likely that Benelux would take the brunt of it, with a low risk of the far SE corner catching some of it.

Thanks Cliffy...dont wanna lose tiles tonight

[leedsnowfan]

50 minutes ago, Surrey said:

hmmm sting jet I will look at that in a second... 

 

This maybe why the Met have the Wind warnings further inland and the mention of higher gusts..  Here is Angus as of 14:48 this afternoon.

Notice the track it now is showing... MUCH further North than previously anticipated.. 

If this is correct everything I posted earlier is now out of date!

GFS 12z is a touch off having the low further south...

 

Yeah looking at the 12z i think the strongest gusts will be the Dungeness Area and the Dover Straits........Ferry Anyone?? Long way to go yet tho.....

[SenlacJack]

1 hour ago, bobbydog said:

Talk about the 'calm before the storm'-

Not even a breath of wind out there....

Exactly the same here but the rain has just arrived and unless my ears are playing tricks I think I can hear occasional very distant rumbles of thunder from the sferics showing up in the Channel.

[SenlacJack]

33 minutes ago, Hurricane Debby said:

Hi SenlacJack. I'm new to Hastings and I don't know if to be excited or a tad worried ! I've got a gazebo which isn't even screwed properly to the floor so I don't think I'll be seeing that tomorrow....

Hello HD and welcome to 1066 Country, you won't regret moving here I'm sure, I certainly haven't. 

As much as I enjoy eventful weather I do have some concerns about this storm for no particular reason. If you can't secure your gazebo this evening you may have to try and find it somewhere in Kent tomorrow !

[NO LONGER POSTING]

28 minutes ago, leedsnowfan said:

Yeah looking at the 12z i think the strongest gusts will be the Dungeness Area and the Dover Straits........Ferry Anyone?? Long way to go yet tho.....

Still massive differences on wind speed and where.. But Kent through to IOW coast line taking the brunt of the winds, anywhere inland East of IOW and South of Reading through to London will still take a hit from the winds big time.

Around here we still got some lime trees with full green leaves. I can't believe I went down to the tropical south coast this week to do landscaping in a school and apple trees still had green leaves!

Rain now well on its way in..

Been trying to find an old website with hourly sea level pressure  updates but can't find it! Found this though valid 12z today no wonder they are worried about some bigger gusts look at the pressure gradient on the southern flank!

 

 

Graphics from BBC too.. Bigger the arrow bigger the gust lol

 

 

 

Edited November 19, 2016 by Surrey

[Daniel*]

 

4 hours ago, Surrey said:

Looks like it's being ramped up a bit I will keep the live charts at hand and post throughout the evening.

Not sure where bbc are getting 70mph for inland areas though??

I think that graphic was simply wrong.

Arome reduces threat of those very strong wind which preceding run had fingers of very strong gusts penetrating well inland. You can see streaks of circa 80-90 mph gust just offshore, some of which make 'landfall' from zooming in.

[Nouska]

5 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Been trying to find an old website with hourly sea level pressure  updates but can't find it! Found this though valid 12z today no wonder they are worried about some bigger gusts look at the pressure gradient on the southern flank!

Meteociel have updates on pressure and isobars - left bar above the model options.

http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/pression.php

Current status.

    

Legend of colors of the text:
Red: pressure has dropped since the last survey
Yellow: pressure has remained stable since last reading
Green: the pressure has risen since the last reading

AROME has bullseye lowest reading, circa 963mb as per image below - local UK time 2am.

 

[Spikecollie]

The northern coast of France looks a good place to be! We're progged high winds in the early hours from this too...reaching a long way inland.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

963mb  

Can people further south keep the reports coming in over night?

[Spikecollie]

I do hope everyone will be OK out there...stay safe.

[bobbydog]

59 minutes ago, Hurricane Debby said:

Hi SenlacJack. I'm new to Hastings and I don't know if to be excited or a tad worried ! I've got a gazebo which isn't even screwed properly to the floor so I don't think I'll be seeing that tomorrow....

I've got a cheapish one which IS screwed to the decking and tied off to a tree and some very secure trellis. I doubt if mine will survive so... in Hastings?... give your gazebo a little wave goodbye when you go to bed....

[bobbydog]

10 minutes ago, Surrey said:

963mb  

Can people further south keep the reports coming in over night?

If we're still here......

 

It could be like the African savannah here tomorrow, not many trees and wild gazebos roaming the plains...

Edited November 19, 2016 by bobbydog

[katemart]

Pleasure. If I may be admitted an honorary member of the SE thread tonight?

[JennyJane1]

2 minutes ago, katemart said:

Pleasure. If I may be admitted an honorary member of the SE thread tonight?

Hi

[bobbydog]

3 minutes ago, katemart said:

Pleasure. If I may be admitted an honorary member of the SE thread tonight?

You're welcome. You can be our forward observation post!

[Sussex Jules]

10 minutes ago, katemart said:

Pleasure. If I may be admitted an honorary member of the SE thread tonight?

I always thought that Hants belonged in South East thread. Welcome to the mad house!!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Bit of proper weather and the fourm comes alive! Stay safe all!! Keep the reports coming in!

[SP1986]

Ive been watching this with interest and concern (up here in the northwest).. it always puts the wind up me (excuse the pun) when I see situations like this one, especially in light of 1987. It's very easy to dismiss 1987 out of hand as a comparison, but we really wont know the effect it has until it hits. I would treat this one with extreme respect.. I have a feeling some people will get caught out by this. Hopefully it will pass through as an interesting system, rather than a dangerous one.

[SenlacJack]

33 minutes ago, Surrey said:

963mb  

Can people further south keep the reports coming in over night?

Can't make any promises Luke but I will try and stay awake later. Currently dead calm here with light rain.

[lassie23]

31 minutes ago, katemart said:

Pleasure. If I may be admitted an honorary member of the SE thread tonight?

Can we come in yours?

[bobbydog]

Just now, lassie23 said:

Can we come in yours?

Oo err missus!

[lassie23]

Just now, bobbydog said:

Oo err missus!

Should have read it back before posting

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Signature hook beginning to form.. Steady as "He" blows

 

 

[Dami]

Can hear noises like the strong wind blowing but it's barely blowing. Looks like it's misty out too. 

Glad i'm up in Bedford tonight, Had to deal with some very strong winds living on the south coast including the 87' one.

stay safe tonight, i wouldn't want to be walking along to the club at the end of e/b pier tonight.

Edited November 19, 2016 by Dami