SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Timings are so important for settling snow, if it comes 1-2hrs later there could be a larger area with good falls, comes 1-2hrs earlier and the extent of settling snow will be high ground and maybe lower ground Essex and Kent.

Yes, ideally we need it to slow up and the heavier pulses come through after sunset. Think it will be a real now casting situation as the margins are so fine but some of the heaviest snowfalls have occurred under marginal conditions - 0.5c could make such a difference!

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

your presence in the MOD is missed !

I like to lurk, especially as there days I have a very busy work life. Still for these set-ups, I'll try to remove myself for a brief time to get on here...just occasionally!

I'd think along the downs maybe a slight risk of blizzard conditions for a time, regardless of settling snow. 

[Southender]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

I like to lurk, especially as there days I have a very busy work life. Still for these set-ups, I'll try to remove myself for a brief time to get on here...just occasionally!

I'd think along the downs maybe a slight risk of blizzard conditions for a time, regardless of settling snow. 

Good to see you back Kold!! Old-timers assemble...

Edited January 11, 2017 by Southender

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Where do you access the Euro 4 charts please? I usually use weatheronline expert charts but they still show 06z.

suspect it was the 06z run he was viewing !  i've made that mistake before

[kold weather]

Also just to add looking at the latest models for some (especially closer to the coast and further west in this zone) it maybe more likely to be a wintry mess, with a combo of all three main states. In heavier bursts, snow, in lighter sleet/rain. 

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

suspect it was the 06z run he was viewing !  i've made that mistake before

It was - still the very latest I can view lol. Hopefully the 12z will be an upgrade. 

[pinball wizard]

I Work in a local authority and have been told that the Met Office are likely to raise the warning in the south to Amber this evening or tomorrow - current expectation is for 5-10 cm of snow in Suffolk and Norfolk, although that said as of 3pm today they were still unsure even at this range whether it will be a rain/wet snow mix or proper snow after a period of initial rain.

I know that the models often find snow forecasting difficult but is this setup particularly unusual as it seems that the models are really all over the place in terms of will it / won't it snow? Usually it is uncertain until t36 but then things firm up but this time round the MET seem to be really scratching their heads even at close range.

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

It was - still the very latest I can view lol. Hopefully the 12z will be an upgrade. 

its eeking itself out now - up to 12 hours although full precip totals are available though unless you know when the change occurs, they aren't much use!

[bluearmy]

a rain to snow event is always the most tricky to forecast and also for the local authorities to prepare for. no point in gritting until it changes and how do you know when that point will be. you  cant grit the whole of the area at the point where the snow arrives. if it does come down heavy and settle then expect a right mess on the roads

EDIT: maybe that should be in the regional thread !

Edited January 11, 2017 by bluearmy

[Seasonality]

Anyone know any verification stats for Euro 4 compared to other high res models?

[JennyJane1]

There really is nothing to be done untill you see it falling in front of your eyes because today I've seen charts which suggest that either in Great Yarmouth it is going to be raining, or else there is going to be 17cm of snow or else there won't be anything falling from the sky whatsoever!

[Seasonality]

If EURO4 12z is taken as read (and it shouldn't be in a marginal situation ) then around 6-7pm looks like the sweet spot with the precipitation largely moved away by 9pm. Those further east of course could have snow for longer, but best not pay attention to the accumulation charts, not very reliable.

[simon65]

I don't know if this helps any ,I`m as confused as the weather people and they are playing their cards close to the chest as to say ,best way to find out if theres any snow in your area is to a:- wait and see , b:- street lamp watching ,best bet if if your area is in an "effected" area and your out and about ,be prepaired

[Wivenswold]

Well, I didn't expect to see my first snowflake for 3 years today but there were a few flakes blowing around in the air when I arrived at Wivenhoe Station tonight. Quite unexpected and hopefully a sign of things to come.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Not a lot has changed on the Euro 4 12z - very similar to its early run. 

[JennyJane1]

4 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

Well, I didn't expect to see my first snowflake for 3 years today but there were a few flakes blowing around in the air when I arrived at Wivenhoe Station tonight. Quite unexpected and hopefully a sign of things to come.

wooh that's only down the coast here. Just realised the streetlamp here goes off at midnight, swizz.

[Wivenswold]

Ha, yes 1am here. Clearly some showers are making it down this far but nothing heavy enough to show on the radar. You're in a much better place for Friday though. 

[JennyJane1]

Just now, Wivenswold said:

Ha, yes 1am here. Clearly some showers are making it down this far but nothing heavy enough to show on the radar. You're in a much better place for Friday though. 

Do you want to join me in stripping the supermarket shelves of bread and milk? I believe that is the tradition in such situations?

[Wivenswold]

@JennyJane1 Great, I'll bring a van. You can't be too careful especially after what the papers said about a month-long killer freeze. They never get it wrong. I did stock up on firewood though, so I'm just as bad.

 

Edited January 11, 2017 by Wivenswold

[Ben Lewis]

1 hour ago, Mac_SE said:

Just watched that Met Office Facebook vid and it's pretty selective to have cherry picked the '15cms' statement out of the three scenarios they presented. It's a rain to snow event with the possibility of seeing nothing, a few wet flakes or a period of heavier snow for a time. Think people should manage their expectations accordingly.

If you are referring to my post that uploaded the METO facebook video:

I didn't cherry pick what so ever I just simply highlighted an extreme case that the chief forecaster put together out of several possibilities. 

I believed I also posted - 'One scenario of many options'

Im sick & tired of being told to lower expectations - why? This is the UK, the same country that hasn't seen decent snowfall in our region since march 2013 - if their is a possibility (albeit low) then why the hell shouldn't we discuss prospects of decent snow cover. It might happen - it might not! Just because you are sceptical and cautious that doesn't mean we can't highlight that the chief METO forecasted highlighted that 15cm was a possibility! 

Edited January 11, 2017 by Ben Lewis

[JennyJane1]

2 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

15cm was a possibility! 

17! 17! 17! I am NOT over excited. No.

[Ben Lewis]

Jay wynn: 4-5cm down to lower levels across the midlands, EA and SE!

Yep that will do :-) 

[Wivenswold]

2 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Jay wynn: 4-5cm down to lower levels across the midlands, EA and SE!

Yep that will do :-) 

Yes and don't forget it will freeze too, I'm glad I'm not driving on Friday. 

[lassie23]

15 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

Do you want to join me in stripping the supermarket shelves of bread and milk? I believe that is the tradition in such situations?

For some reason my supermarket is all  out of snickers

[throwoff]

HOLD THE PRESS!

 

BBC just said in EA and the south east settling of a few centimetres is possible