SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

[slater]

1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

If I was a betting man I'd go for a brief period of wintriness, no settling.

snap same here a if i was to bet. mix of rain, sleet and wet snow that just may lay on grass for a bit

[Dami]

So much doom and gloom, gah let the people excited to have a chance of some snow be excited, stop putting a damper on it. No one knows for sure. I am saying we are getting some light rain, doesn't mean I won't be having a peak later just in case.

Edited January 11, 2017 by Dami

[Jimmyh]

well said Dami

I fear becoming like Victor Meldrew. Even if not a single flake falls from the sky it has been nearly 4 very bleak winters since we had snow on my birthday in 2013. and 7 year since the holy grail. If we don't get snow fine if we do get snow wonderful but lets just enjoy the flipping build up and I am sorry I don't understand anyones pessimism especially surrey and shrimper who have been around along time like me.

[Ben Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Dami said:

So much doom and gloom, gah let the people excited to have a chance of some snow be excited, stop putting a damper on it. No one knows for sure. I am saying we are getting some light rain, doesn't mean I won't be having a peak later just in case.

Very well put  Needless to say, nothing anyone says is going to influence what happens, so let's just see what happens and let people get exicted if they want to! 

[dubmuffin]

Did some one mention a mild sector?

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, dubmuffin said:

Did some one mention a mild sector?

nearly always a mild sector on the eastern edge of the atlantic !

[stainesbloke]

Think it's great that there's a bit of excitement in this thread for a change. Hopefully not too much melodrama and upset if nothing happens and it's all a damp squib which realistically it may well be. Quite low risk at the moment for settling snow, but could go either way and I'm a little bit excited 

[Seasonality]

Getting excited about snow is great! Don't get me wrong, ramp away. 12z Arome (French high res model) has small amounts of snow, but looks more a wintry mix with precipitation moving South East more quickly than the Meto output suggests.

[Dami]

This is like thunderstorms in the summer for me, highly unlikely I will get something but it's nice to see that chance, even if it goes up and down. However I'm not overly excited - yet. I'd rather see the disappointment of just rain rather then keep reading it hours before the thing is heading here, if it even does.

so yes, may be taking a break for a bit.

Edited January 11, 2017 by Dami

[NO LONGER POSTING]

If Thursday don't go to plan there is always Friday.. 

[Seasonality]

Just now, Surrey said:

If Thursday don't go to plan there is always Friday.. 

And more chances I should think...

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Ben Blizzard said:

GFS 12Z looking good for our corner tomorrow evening, and again early Friday morning. 

[huntso]

In the past there has often been a late correction Northwards for these type of events.

Edited January 11, 2017 by huntso

[kold weather]

Haven't posted here for a while BUT this set-up is worth commenting on.

Its very marginal, any height (say 100M) is going to make a difference as will the intensity AND the time of day the back half comes through. The later it happens, the better as it will help the evap. cooling to kick in easier.

Some places will get a decent fall, some will have just rain and a few (likely on high ground) will hit the jackpot and get good settling snow.

Friday morning tentatively looking less marginal but timing is key again, earlier the better.

[Daniel*]

I think Surrey and some of you are being overly pessimistic. E4 is very consistent with the snow signal, we're not going to see a dramatic shift at this stage surely, temps forecast to drop to 1/2C by 1800 for my part of London, with heavy precip doesn't take a genius that poses big interest. I'm highly confident swathes of our region will see snow, the duration, I'm not entirely sure, the snow will settle if it's heavy enough. it's looking good when considering what we've been through. Plus Friday is also interesting regarding snow!  

[Ben Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Changing Skies said:

I think Surrey and some of you are being overly pessimistic. E4 is very consistent with the snow signal, we're not going to see a dramatic shift at this stage surely, temps forecast to drop to 1/2C by 1800 for my part of London, with heavy precip doesn't take a genius that poses big interest. I'm highly confident swathes of our region will see snow, the duration, I'm not entirely sure, the snow will settle if it's heavy enough. it's looking good when considering what we've been through. Plus Friday is also interesting regarding snow!  

YES DANIEL!!!  

Although If you've just jinxed it and it turns out to be a wet mess I'm sure half of this forum will never forgive you lol! 

[lassie23]

more than three people in the SE thread, must be some weather ahead

[JennyJane1]

Well I have to go out to an appointment tomorrow morning, by the time i come back it will be about lunchtime and i think at that stage i'll decide whether it seems to be about to snow or not, you know, the sky turns that weird luminated pinky-yellowy-grey way.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Think this is the busiest it has been in here in years!!! 

 

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just checked the latest Euro 4 charts and it is going to be a fascinating event and actually quite unusual for this past of the country. The precipitation returns are quite impressive, getting on for 30mm in some parts so it will certainly be wet! In terms of snow it is looking like a very quick transition as the distance between the higher theta, 850 and dew point values and lower ones is very little so once it starts to turn it will be a quick transition to snow.

Current timings for rain to snow is around 4pm for the NW of London, 5pm for Greater London and 6pm to the SE of the capital and into Kent. Anybody with a little height (150 - 200m) could really hit the jackpot. I wouldn't be surprised to heart of places getting 15cm plus but it is so marginal! The one big positive is it will be heavy precipitation so evaporative cooling should certainly help.

[JennyJane1]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

more than three people in the SE thread, must be some weather ahead

Or perhaps its your fan club?

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Just checked the latest Euro 4 charts and it is going to be a fascinating event and actually quite unusual for this past of the country. The precipitation returns are quite impressive, getting on for 30mm in some parts so it will certainly be wet! In terms of snow it is looking like a very quick transition as the distance between the higher theta, 850 and dew point values and lower ones is very little so once it starts to turn it will be a quick transition to snow.

Current timings for rain to snow is around 4pm for the NW of London, 5pm for Greater London and 6pm to the SE of the capital and into Kent. Anybody with a little height (150 - 200m) could really hit the jackpot. I wouldn't be surprised to heart of places getting 15cm plus but it is so marginal! The one big positive is it will be heavy precipitation so evaporative cooling should certainly help.

Timings are so important for settling snow, if it comes 1-2hrs later there could be a larger area with good falls, comes 1-2hrs earlier and the extent of settling snow will be high ground and maybe lower ground Essex and Kent.

[bluearmy]

12 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Haven't posted here for a while BUT this set-up is worth commenting on.

Its very marginal, any height (say 100M) is going to make a difference as will the intensity AND the time of day the back half comes through. The later it happens, the better as it will help the evap. cooling to kick in easier.

Some places will get a decent fall, some will have just rain and a few (likely on high ground) will hit the jackpot and get good settling snow.

Friday morning tentatively looking less marginal but timing is key again, earlier the better.

your presence in the MOD is missed !

[Lampostwatcher]

22 hours 28 mins to go

[Seasonality]

5 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Just checked the latest Euro 4 charts and it is going to be a fascinating event and actually quite unusual for this past of the country. The precipitation returns are quite impressive, getting on for 30mm in some parts so it will certainly be wet! In terms of snow it is looking like a very quick transition as the distance between the higher theta, 850 and dew point values and lower ones is very little so once it starts to turn it will be a quick transition to snow.

Current timings for rain to snow is around 4pm for the NW of London, 5pm for Greater London and 6pm to the SE of the capital and into Kent. Anybody with a little height (150 - 200m) could really hit the jackpot. I wouldn't be surprised to heart of places getting 15cm plus but it is so marginal! The one big positive is it will be heavy precipitation so evaporative cooling should certainly help.

Where do you access the Euro 4 charts please? I usually use weatheronline expert charts but they still show 06z.