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SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion


A.J

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Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
12 hours ago, Delka said:

That's for my location, actually upgraded slightly to 78% with 14% chance the next day on the 10 day forecast! If this pulls off i will be very happy

I hope you own a snow machine :D:rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL

Gorgeous day if a little chilly in that NE'ly, not complaining, I'll take that this time of year all day long, it'll work wondered getting the ground temps down over the next 10 days or so :santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

Nice and sunny here like yesterday, temp curently 9.7. The wind yet again is cold making the day feel much colder than it is. Gusting still between about 40-45 mostly. Highest gust so far today is 58 mph at about 5:30 this morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK

Lovely sunshine today with hardly a cloud, very nice. The wind certainly has a 'bite' to it though!

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Models have flipped back to mild:rofl: At least it's sunny today:good:

Just saw the forecast too for tmrw and they have changed the forecast to some long sunny spells and not the overcast crap . Yipeeee

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

Models have flipped back to mild:rofl: At least it's sunny today:good:

Oh the drama :rofl: Have seen the word 'exhaustion' mentioned. Baffling really as we are not even into winter yet! Background signals are all pointing to something cold and very different to the last few years. That's quite interesting in itself, imho.

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Posted
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level

I love the snow my best kind of weather. but is nice when sunny not raining and blowing a gale.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Early next week looks decidedly chilly, cold ESE winds. I'm not 100 per cent sure but I don't think we've had an air frost here yet. Not particularly unusual with the UHI typically scuppering it.   

IMG_1058.PNG

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

Lovely start to the weekend here. It got down to 2C overnight so there's a good covering of ground frost. Looking like next week we'll all be scraping frost off the car windscreens!

And I'm getting quietly excited about the 'pointers' for December's weather - could we be scraping snow off the car in 2 or 3 weeks time?

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Lovely day yesterday with unbroken sunshine, today starting in same way. A weak front will move south later today introducing some more cloud and a little drizzle/light rain. This should clear during Sunday though. It will also turn cold behind this front with some of the coldest nights so far during the first half of the coming week.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters and cool summers.
  • Location: Islington, C. London.

Very seasonable morning today, cold with thick fog. I recorded the first significant frost of the season last as it dipped down to -1.2. The first proper frost since May 1st I believe.

Edited by LetItSnow!
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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

Anybody Else having trouble getting to the forums the quick route I'm having to search around for the threads.

Anyway a lovely start to the day with a crisp white thick coating of frost and not a cloud in the sky , Ahh beautiful . I see the mod thread is once again rejoicing at the ecm saving the day and returning the northerly plunge to our shores. I really hope it is correct but I'm certainly not jumping up and down with excitement . 

Edited by Mark wheeler
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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire

Had a frosty start this morning, 3rd already, more then all of last winter! I really dislike the charts as they're so mild.. A few months earlier I would be with it, but in the coming few months warmer uppers don't really do much except ruin our cold dreams!

edit: something like this would definitely be nice for the run up to christmas.. very festive 

 

Edited by Delka
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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

The cold came, went, came back, went again, then returned, then vanished, now it has reappeared.;)It's only November and if the models continue like this. I can see only one person being left in the MOD thread come February.:oops:

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
5 hours ago, Mark wheeler said:

Anybody Else having trouble getting to the forums the quick route I'm having to search around for the threads.

Anyway a lovely start to the day with a crisp white thick coating of frost and not a cloud in the sky , Ahh beautiful . I see the mod thread is once again rejoicing at the ecm saving the day and returning the northerly plunge to our shores. I really hope it is correct but I'm certainly not jumping up and down with excitement . 

Not sure it's related, but at 07.20 this morning there was a hiccup with the Netweather website. I was browsing the forums and suddenly got Error 502 messages - for several minutes I couldn't access the website at all. I've posted a report on the Help thread and Paul is aware (and says everything OK now).

And while I'm here, I can't resist posting the Arpege Min Temp chart for next Tuesday morning. Get the de-icers ready!

Arepege Min Temp Tues 29Nov 07.00.png

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

Cloudy day today, over night low of 2.9, day time high of 7.1. Chilly east wind, but much lighter than it has been. Highest gust at 24 mph. Averaging between 10-15 mph. 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Down in south Essex today, a reasonable day with sunny spells and occasional spells where some low cloud drifted in. We still look set for a cloudier spell as a set of weak fronts move down and eventually introduced clearer and colder air.

arpegeuk-41-68-0.png?26-17

Monday night being the coldest night (-3C widely by dawn on Tuesday).

Hopefully after the cloud clears tomorrow we should see a couple of crisp and sunny days, I must add I expect many more over the coming couple of weeks.

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Posted
  • Location: Home = Haywards Heath. Work = Burgess Hill
  • Weather Preferences: snow, storms or both at same time..
  • Location: Home = Haywards Heath. Work = Burgess Hill

6th frost of the Autumn on my Hilux windscreen this morning here in Haywards Heath.

I run my Hilux on used cooking oil I collect from chip shops etc, when it's really cold I have to add a touch of petrol in it to keep it liquid, not needed to for last 3 winters, hopefully this one will be a cold winter :)

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Right given we have almost reached the end of November, I might as well have a go at a winter forecast.

So in general my thoughts or feelings.

  • Slightly colder than average
  • Drier than average
  • Sunshine near normal but could vary depending on location.
  • Cold weather more favoured in December/January, especially from mid December through to the start of January.

So breaking it down into the 3 months

December

The difficulty here is that we have two patterns showing up here, the first being the one held by the longer range forecasts that backs blocked/snowy conditions and the one where things don't go quite as planned which tends to result in high pressure over the UK as zonal conditions are unable to develop as the polar vortex remains weak and situated over Siberia, hence we often tend to lack any real driving force for the conditions over the UK. We will enter December on a settled and chilly note with high pressure near the UK, even if the surface high is over Europe it will not have the mild conditions associated with last year. At some point during this month we will see a transition to colder and more wintry conditions as high pressure first retrogrades towards Iceland/Greenland before the low heights over the Arctic tend to fall apart leading to a potentially prolonged spell of blocked conditions that could deliver cold or even severe cold to the UK.

So in terms of the conditions for the UK.

  • Temperature - between 1 and 2 degrees below normal, this depends on when the onset of blocked conditions occur.
  • Rainfall - Below or well below normal (probably between 40 and 60% of the average), the highest rainfall will tend to be near coastal parts of the regions which will be more prone to showers.
  • Sunshine - Near normal, but very dependent on the surface conditions during the settled spells and the location of northern blocking later on (In terms of the later a block with northerly winds will tend to deliver a lot of sunshine whilst easterlies could end up quite cloudy at times)

January

I suspect the new year will begin on a cold and potentially snowy note with possibly the most severe conditions occurring during the first half of the month, I do suspect however that towards the end of the month we could see a return of westerly winds with possibly the stormiest period of the winter could occur during the last week or so. Again the timing of this transition is uncertain and we could see cold/blocked conditions lasting the whole month.

  • Temperature - again around 1 to 2 degrees below normal, it depends on when and how quick the cold signal wanes.
  • Rainfall - 70-90% of normal, so not as dry and December but if blocked conditions dominate then you will get a dry month most of the time.
  • Sunshine - 70-90% of average, as we move through winter and the sea surface temperatures drop, the chances of cold/cloudy conditions developing increases. With this in mind it is probably pragmatic to suggest that January could end up quite dull.

February

We could start February quite cold/blocked or in a more mobile spell. But given that the polar vortex is unlikely to reach the level of dominance of previous years then I suspect we could still end up with variable conditions which could involve colder spells, anticyclonic spells or an early onset of spring. At this point the level of certainty is very low, but I will potentially side on February being a milder month with potentially some rather pleasant weather mixed in with some more unsettled periods. Colder weather can't be ruled out but I suspect a more typical pattern for this month.

  • Temperatures - near or slightly above normal (0.5 to 1C above normal)
  • Rainfall - Near or slightly above normal (100 - 120%)
  • Sunshine - Around normal

So I guess in here there isn't much new, I agree with most who have posted that this winter will more than likely be front loaded and overall be colder than normal. December and January do pose the chance of being one of the coldest 10 months on record but this isn't a guarantee. I suspect that zonal conditions will be largely absent from the first half of the winter, but a blocked snowy pattern isn't guaranteed and extended periods of heights near the UK could well occur resulting in cold and dry conditions. The second half looks more typical to our geographical location but nothing worse than near normal, my prediction is skewed mostly by the chances of developing a settled warmer pattern during late February, likewise the cold predictions for December/January are based on settled conditions generally being colder than average with an adjustment for the risk of severe cold developing.

Right well there is my musings anyway, I will try to do a weekly forecast every Sunday and at times do some of the FAX chart analysis when we have some interesting events coming up. Though due to me doing early shifts I might be unable to track the day 4/5 charts which tend to be released late in the evening.

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