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SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion


A.J

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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

Raining gently here. No particular wind to note.

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

Lashing down here but no wind yet...

Oops... not strictly true, last night's curry still having an effect...

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Posted
  • Location: Whitstable
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunder ~ both together would be great !
  • Location: Whitstable

Getting a bit blowy in Whitstable can't hear any rain yet . Wondering if this will really amount to anything 

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Posted
  • Location: Southampton, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, hot, hot! Or cold, cold, cold!
  • Location: Southampton, UK

985mb, 21mm of rain since 5pm, wind ESE and starting to be a bit boomy although max gust here still under 26mph. But we're very sheltered by the Island so likely to be much stronger to the east.

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Posted
  • Location: Southampton, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, hot, hot! Or cold, cold, cold!
  • Location: Southampton, UK
1 minute ago, pinball wizard said:

Force 11 winds being forecast in the shipping forecast now

Still an enormous amount of shipping in the Channel, including the QM2 and the Queen Elizabeth, which both set off about 5pm. Some cruisers are going to have to get their sea legs very quickly! :bad:

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Posted
  • Location: Farnham Common, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Farnham Common, Buckinghamshire

Sting Jet confirmed by Fergie in the Storm Angus thread! Heavy rain here, slightly breezy!

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Posted
  • Location: Ipswich - Suffolk
  • Location: Ipswich - Suffolk
1 minute ago, katemart said:

Still an enormous amount of shipping in the Channel, including the QM2 and the Queen Elizabeth, which both set off about 5pm. Some cruisers are going to have to get their sea legs very quickly! :bad:

Very true!!! Wightlink ferries to portsmouth are suspended now, my trip over the solent in the morning will be an interesting one. bring it on!

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Posted
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl

Rain getting heavier and heavier,can hear it on the conservatory roof,wind is starting to pick up too

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Best of luck to all those on the south coast, it is going to be a wild night. Still fairly calm here.

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

@Surrey What's your take on these WX Weather charts? Is that the small area of the sting jet I've highlighted tracking across Southern UK, or the 'quiet' eye of the Low where there's little wind? The problem is WX use almost the same colour for 118 kph winds as 5 kph! Doh!

It's just that the BBC graphic I posted this afternoon (for 05.00) had an area of 70 mph winds associated with the centre of the storm tracking almost exactly across the same route!

03.00 WXChart 20Nov 03.00.jpg 06.00 WXChart 20Nov 06.00.jpg 09.00 WXChart 20Nov 09.00.jpg

Edited by Blessed Weather
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3 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

@Surrey What's your take on these WX Weather charts? Is that the small area of the sting jet I've highlighted tracking across Southern UK, or the 'quiet' eye of the Low where there's little wind? The problem is WX use almost the same colour for 118 kph winds as 5 kph! Doh!

It's just that the BBC graphic I posted this afternoon (for 05.00) had an area of 70 mph winds associated with the centre of the storm tracking almost exactly across the same route!

03.00 WXChart 20Nov 03.00.jpg 06.00 WXChart 20Nov 06.00.jpg 09.00 WXChart 20Nov 09.00.jpg

The sting jet would be much further south of that. It will be on the back side of the storm where the precip wrap around ends in a point. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
9 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

@Surrey What's your take on these WX Weather charts? Is that the small area of the sting jet I've highlighted tracking across Southern UK, or the 'quiet' eye of the Low where there's little wind? The problem is WX use almost the same colour for 118 kph winds as 5 kph! Doh!

It's just that the BBC graphic I posted this afternoon (for 05.00) had an area of 70 mph winds associated with the centre of the storm tracking almost exactly across the same route!

03.00 WXChart 20Nov 03.00.jpg 06.00 WXChart 20Nov 06.00.jpg 09.00 WXChart 20Nov 09.00.jpg

That's the center of the low on there BB :)

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

Thanks guys ^^. Still a little niggle in my head as Fergie's latest tweet predicts the sting coming ashore between Portland Bill and Isle of Wight at 00.00 to 03.00 and that first WX chart for 03.00 shows that small area in exactly that area. His tweet:

Fergie tweet 20 Nov.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.
1 hour ago, bobbydog said:

Red Warning- don't go to Nan's tomorrow. She was crushed by a gazebo whilst surfing on Brighton beach.

I hope that your cynicism proves correct, BobbyD. I fear it might be over-optimistic.

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There are lots of ifs and buts right now. We are assuming that the models have detected the conditions for a sting jet to develop. But we also require something called Conditional Symmetric Instability (CSI) to be present. Certainly strong sting jets only occur in storms which develop CSI in the hook-shaped cloud (where the wrap around on the back side of this storm forms a point)

It is worth noting however that equally damaging winds might occur in localised squalls within the larger system such as we see in the Plymouth area right now

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Posted
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl

A gust of 62mph at portland has been recorded,46 at shoreham,would hate to be in the channel tonight and tomoz

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
9 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Thanks guys ^^. Still a little niggle in my head as Fergie's latest tweet predicts the sting coming ashore between Portland Bill and Isle of Wight at 00.00 to 03.00 and that first WX chart for 03.00 shows that small area in exactly that area. His tweet:

Fergie tweet 20 Nov.jpg

Indeed, it is quite puzzling strongest winds are found close to the tail should give you a general idea below.

image.jpegimage.jpegimage.jpegimage.jpeg

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