SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

25 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Hi Chris. Actually that house isn't that many years old, so no pargetting, although it definitely looks like there should be! But there are some wonderful houses in Hadleigh High Street dating back to 1500 that are covered in pargetting. Very impressive the effort that used to go into making your house stand out from your neighbours! For folk who maybe haven't seen pargetting, here's a photo of one dated 1618 from my High Street:

 

That's a fine example on the left, though I must admit that Suffolk shade of pink leaves me cold.  I suspect that members in this thread from south of London will be utterly unfamiliar with this very diagnostically vernacular tradition!  The High Street scene may not be as immediately and obviously "chocolate-box" pretty as exposed half-timbering, but I do enjoy the roofline angles, plasterwork shades and dark roof tiles of such structures.  Here, in South Norfolk, plasterwork isn't as common, though it does exist along the A140 corridor in places heading towards the border; we tend to have more in the way of weathered red pantiles and exposed brickwork, generating a much more red-brown feel to streets such as this.  There are some lovely half-timbered and early brick houses and shops in my nearest market town, Wymondham, though, including some plasterwork.  I'm a fan of the Market Cross from the early 17th century, which is one of those structures which seems unusuited to surroundings including modern shop fronts:

 

Another fine structure is the Green Dragon pub.  I've never been inside, but it's certainly a good example of a jettied timber-framed late Middle Ages pub, albeit with typically Norfolk flintwork:

Edited November 18, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[Ben Lewis]

So  after reviewing the latest models, Sunday's low looks to bring up to 50mph wind gusts and heavy rain. 

A bog standard UK winters/late autumn day then? 

You know it's been a quiet autumn when a mediocre low pressure system gets portrayed as some kind of armegedon. Good job 95% of the British public don't come on this forum - there would be no baked beans left! 

The first deep low pressure system of the season. I'm pretty sure British folk haven't forgot how to handle wind and rain - lol 

 

 

Edited November 18, 2016 by Ben Lewis

[Wivenswold]

Thanks for your summary Ben, that'll save me having to look at the models. Should I ignore the Met Office warning and not make provision for any travel disruption overnight into Sunday do you think?

 

[Daniel*]

2 hours ago, Surrey said:

Evening! Yes, it's pretty mental but like you say so far out it won't verify like that.

While not an impossible "theory" the odds of a storm like that is probably 1/1000 years ish 

 

The Great Storm of 1987 was deemed a once in a 200 year event, we seem to break a lot of record these days typically of the warm variety, so you'll never know, in fact the storm looks even more severe, exceptionally tight isobars, on those final frames of GFS 12z. A destructive storm indeed you would be quivering if that was in a reliable timeframe. Approaching 90mph gusts well inland *if* coupled with a sting jet I would not want to know the consequences. A true dartboard low the lack of 'weather' this year has been quite apparent a somber year for storms and snow, certainly not memorable, however 2016 is not done with us yet.

 

[lassie23]

3 hours ago, Mark wheeler said:

A little moan from me. It seems in the mod thread that ECM is king again and that GFS is rubbish again etc but just 2 days ago . GFS was the one better in these situations etc. The cold hopefully will come but seems like an eternity already waiting . There are some fantastic posters in there and I really appreciate the time they give up. I'm just frustrated and want my bloody snow . It's only November and I'm already exuasted this year .

 

The best model in the MOD thread is usually the one showing snow and cold

[weathergeek]

Do the council know something we don't?!!! Lol!!

[lassie23]

Just now, weathergeek said:

Do the council know something we don't?!!! Lol!!

My borough isn't included, did you get yours? Maybe they have so much grit left over from three failed winters, they have a grit mountain.

[Mark wheeler]

3 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

Do the council know something we don't?!!! Lol!!

I used to depise the stuff as a child (grit ) . I mean I wait ages for snow it falls I watch it . I wake up in the morning and watch the ***** of a caretaker scatter the place full of the stuff . Pah 

[Daniel*]

Arome packs a punch, note it is high resolution model. 

Very nasty a swathe of damaging winds affecting southern coastal counties. I'm not great at differentiating these colours, but I believe it is showing 85 mph gusts in the Solent area as of 0600 Sunday, these strong packed winds transferring eastwards to neighbouring Sussex/Kent.

edit: the latest run rolling out 

 

Edited November 19, 2016 by Changing Skies

[Mark wheeler]

21 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

The best model in the MOD thread is usually the one showing snow and cold

Well that's true lassie and if I'm honest that's what I want to see. I know that its probably be a load of *****cks though . However when snow and cold is coming the mod thread will see it from far far away . And that's why I'm hooked. I bet you are too?

[lassie23]

Frosty out, cars and ground all white. 1c

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Little bit of frost here this morning very clear and calm.. The calm before the storm(s)!

Some/little change overnight RE where the heaviest and strongest winds will occur. Although the models do have big differences which is expected (Wind wise)

BBC and Met seem to think anyone East of the IOW will be in the firing line. Which is what I was going with last night.

Some pretty hefty rainfall totals on the high res models this morning up until Sunday midnight.. 

EURO4                                                         ARPEGE                                                 NMM                                             

      

 

Pretty decent agreement there widely 30-40mm with some places showing upto 70mm!! 

Wind same again.. I have used times 00z and 09z Sunday

ARPEGE (the model that likes to over hype wind) I can't really see this come to reality it's showing 70-80mph gusts along the coast and even inland for a time, which is a lot higher than the others.. 

 

NMM.. track of low looks similar to the ARPEGE but the winds a lot less fierce.. And slightly more delayed than the ARPEGE bringing the strongest of the winds later (10am-12pm Sunday) 40-50mph inland 55-65mph on coast

  

 

 Net weather high res even more toned down than the NMM 40mph inland MAX with 50-60mph just clipping the south coast again delayed also 

Live comparison.. 

shows our low is on the move. Yesterday at 14:45 on the left this morning Issued 02:38 on the right track slightly changed and a touch further North.

     

Putting this against the  GFS frames near this time. Not bad... 

 

On sat..

WOW thats impressive already! World class grab now showing the low undergoing deepening with the warm air to the South and cold to the North. 

So in all track is still not 100% confirmed 30 miles North or South will make a massive difference in terms of the strongest of the winds and where.

One thing we won't escape is the rain! 

More on Monday later.. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ben Lewis]

9 hours ago, Wivenswold said:

Thanks for your summary Ben, that'll save me having to look at the models. Should I ignore the Met Office warning and not make provision for any travel disruption overnight into Sunday do you think?

 

It's a deep low pressure system bringing heavy rain and strong winds. "Nothing unusual" is what that warning says! 

I certainly wouldn't cancel travel plans due to a low pressure system - if I did then I'd be cancelling a lot of travel during a UK winter and wouldn't be going anywhere. Many of times last winter I regularly had those warnings over Hertfordshire - it was just a wet day & everyone got on with their daily business!

Besides it looks like drying out by mid morning anyway & clearing from the west. 

So you'll be asleep anyway

[Blessed Weather]

10 hours ago, Wivenswold said:

Thanks for your summary Ben, that'll save me having to look at the models. Should I ignore the Met Office warning and not make provision for any travel disruption overnight into Sunday do you think?

 

Depends on where you're travelling to and the means of transport possibly? Met Off warning of danger of trees coming down and talked of "a wild night" on their beeb forecast just now. So if you are unlucky to have a tree come down over a road or rail that's part of your journey you will be held up! And if you are travelling by car at night in heavy rain it may not be pleasant. And if you want to cross the Channel by ferry it will be HORRENDOUS!

But if are travelling further inland, away from the coast, it may not be too bad (lighter winds). The Arpege chart showing Max Gusts expected Sunday and Monday shows this:

But Ben makes some good points too; we've seen gales and rain over the UK many times and life goes on. Whenever you decide to travel, have a safe one.

Back to today and a lovely start after an overnight frost - roofs, cars and lawns very white this morning.

[weathergeek]

10 hours ago, lassie23 said:

My borough isn't included, did you get yours? Maybe they have so much grit left over from three failed winters, they have a grit mountain.

This is actually just outside my borough but you're probably right, they're just trying to give it away due to excess storage, lol!

And yes Mark Wheeler I agree, this snow-murdering stuff was really annoying as a kid, hehe, x

[NO LONGER POSTING]

x marks the spot

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Lovely sunny start with an air frost, well today is the good day for the weekend.

[Karmamel]

Met office now giving Amber warnings for wind . 

[Blessed Weather]

And the Met Off have just named the first storm of this season as...... Angus!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=se&fcTime=147

Now a named storm "Angus" looks like they are going with the higher wind solution 

[stainesbloke]

10 minutes ago, Surrey said:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=se&fcTime=147

Now a named storm "Angus" looks like they are going with the higher wind solution 

The MetO are covering their backs though if latest models are to be believed, coastal counties E of the Isle of Wight will take a battering plus some pretty high rainfall totals. Not a morning for a walk lol.

[leedsnowfan]

Hmm....I hate any warnings for wind....lost large roof tiles over the last few years and it'll be a rather stressful noisy night as chimney likes to roar too But!! The BBC and Met O for my area...BN2 Brighton have lowered expected gusts in latest forecast updated at 11:10 am.....after the Amber Warning was issued.......any thoughts on that?????

Edited November 19, 2016 by leedsnowfan

[Blessed Weather]

Well BBC Weather have just tweeted their latest graphic and it's looking very unpleasant. Fingers crossed those 70 to 80 mph gusts don't happen as trees coming down and property damage will certainly occur.

[Methuselah]

22 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Well BBC Weather have just tweeted their latest graphic and it's looking very unpleasant. Fingers crossed those 70 to 80 mph gusts don't happen as trees coming down and property damage will certainly occur.

Aye - things do look a tad worrying...Thank goodness Thursday's hoolie stripped the trees of most of their remaining foliage?

Edited November 19, 2016 by Ed Stone

[SenlacJack]

55 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Well BBC Weather have just tweeted their latest graphic and it's looking very unpleasant. Fingers crossed those 70 to 80 mph gusts don't happen as trees coming down and property damage will certainly occur.

As boring and non-eventful as the weather has been for quite some time I can't say I'm looking forward to this storm. Right in the firing line down here as well :-(.