SW & CS England Regional Weather Discussion

[AWD]

1 minute ago, Polar Bear said:

Speaking of the MAD thread ...what is the MJO they keep going on about?

 

Model Juggling Obscenity

[Polar Bear]

2 minutes ago, AWD said:

Model Juggling Obscenity

  yep that is much clearer..

Wikipedia just showed me a diag of MJO effects... all I took away from it for us was lots of rain and flooding,...

 

MAD thread indeed.

[Popuplights]

Just checking in.

Winchester looks hopeful, in Area B on that map !

Paul

[AWD]

Heavy snow over Birdlip on the 06z Hirlam;

[Mapantz]

Twister spotted in Ireland: https://i.imgur.com/NP8Hlzq.gifv

[Mark Neal.]

8 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Twister spotted in Ireland: https://i.imgur.com/NP8Hlzq.gifv

Very good! Lol . I did think it might have been something like that but saw stormy skies and thought could be relatistix until that appeared! Damn

[Nights King]

So that's the majority of my chores done in record time 

Where were we now 

P.S. I did fly past Wells chemist for some Prozac but they informed me Khodds had already bought all of them 

Edited January 11, 2017 by Nights King

[AWD]

3 minutes ago, Nights King said:

So that's the majority of my chores done in record time 

Where were we now 

Preparing for some back edge sleet?

[Nights King]

Just now, AWD said:

Preparing for some back edge sleet?

 Come on Mendips have surely got a chance of at least a dusting? 

[AWD]

4 minutes ago, Nights King said:

 Come on Mendips have surely got a chance of at least a dusting? 

Yeah, to be fair you have a decent chance of a good covering, as do Exmoor & Dartmoor.

For lower levels however, the fun looks increasingly focused a little further east than us, towards Swindon/Newbury/Warminster way.

Hoping for a west/south west correction in tonight's 12z modelling to cheer me up a little.  

[Nights King]

Just now, AWD said:

Yeah, to be fair you have a decent chance of a good covering, as do Exmoor & Dartmoor.

For lower levels however, the fun looks increasingly focused a little further east than us, towards Swindon/Newbury/Warminster way.

Hoping for a west/south west correction in tonight's 12z modelling to cheer me up a little.  

Could it just slow up in its progress east out of region do you think?

[MP-R]

Trying to get my head around the 'further east' issue where the dewpoints and uppers are higher. Must be it being heavier precipitation over there by then for evaporative cooling?

[AWD]

2 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Could it just slow up in its progress east out of region do you think?

Anything's possible because it is an evolving & complex scenario.  I've seen models such as the Euro4 shift 100's miles west/east/north/south before too, hence I await the 12z modelling with interest.  I think, as things stand, it's coming too quick, just before the colder upper level air gets entrenched into our region.

If it could just hold of another 12hrs or so then................

[Nights King]

3 minutes ago, AWD said:

Anything's possible because it is an evolving & complex scenario.  I've seen models such as the Euro4 shift 100's miles west/east/north/south before too, hence I await the 12z modelling with interest.  I think, as things stand, it's coming too quick, just before the colder upper level air gets entrenched into our region.

If it could just hold of another 12hrs or so then................

All we need is 2 hours really!

[bellanite]

52 minutes ago, AWD said:

Heavy snow over Birdlip on the 06z Hirlam;

I've got to go to Birdlip tomorrow and be there by 5.30 and don't finish work til 5. Hmm could be interesting!

[AWD]

7 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Trying to get my head around the 'further east' issue where the dewpoints and uppers are higher. Must be it being heavier precipitation over there by then for evaporative cooling?

I think it's a case of the PPN arrives there at a later/better time when the colder airmass is a little more entrenched in the south generally.  If the PPN was arriving there around lunchtime, like it is forecast to arrive in our area by, then the SE would be seeing rain too.

In reality, away from Kent, there is very little difference in the depth of cold across the south of the UK;

Like I said a minute ago, the PPN is arriving a little too early for out region, not allowing the colder air too encroach enough really.  Slow the system down & bend the front more & we could be looking at a different scenario.

[karlos1983]

Bend the front, bend the front, bend the front......

doesnt have quite the same ring to it as "channel low" 

perhaps if we all blow out really hard 

[Ali1977]

6 minutes ago, bellanite said:

I've got to go to Birdlip tomorrow and be there by 5.30 and don't finish work til 5. Hmm could be interesting!

Your not wrong, if anywhere in our area gets snow it's birdlip, it has its own microclimate.  Drifting is also an issue there as the wind whips up the steep hill in front.

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Your not wrong, if anywhere in our area gets snow it's birdlip, it has its own microclimate.  Drifting is also an issue there as the wind whips up the steep hill in front.

Where abouts is the Birdlip you speak of?

T-30 mins until GFS lift off. 

Edited January 11, 2017 by karlos1983

[bellanite]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Your not wrong, if anywhere in our area gets snow it's birdlip, it has its own microclimate.  Drifting is also an issue there as the wind whips up the steep hill in front

Slightly dreading, muchly looking forward to it! It can get wild up there 

[Dorsetbred]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Where abouts is the Birdlip you speak of?

I thought they were renaming it Clarksons Hill, as he winds his cars up there out on test doesn't he?

[SteveB]

I don't know if anyone else is seeing the same thing, but my weather station is currently saying: Temp 8.9c and dewpoint of 1.3c

I think the fact the dewpoint is so low while the temp is high can only be a good thing once the temps start to drop???

[Ali1977]

8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Where abouts is the Birdlip you speak of?

T-30 mins until GFS lift off. 

Its at an alt of 300m at the end of the 419 between swindon and cheltenham, nearer cheltenham.  Great views over gloucester from the viewpoint up there, and normally 2/3 c colder than swindon

Edited January 11, 2017 by Ali1977

[bellanite]

7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Where abouts is the Birdlip you speak of?

 

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, SteveB said:

I don't know if anyone else is seeing the same thing, but my weather station is currently saying: Temp 8.9c and dewpoint of 1.3c

I think the fact the dewpoint is so low while the temp is high can only be a good thing once the temps start to drop???

It's what was expected I think Steve.