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SW & CS England Regional Weather Discussion

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6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Best post of the day, from no accumulation to up to 10cm on higher ground.  This could well be amber if this firms up later today as 4inch in the UK causes proper road issues, especially sticky wet snow. boooooom

When looking at the South-West region on this alert, it's split into 2 parts,

1. Cornwall and Devon

2. Bath and North East Somerset, Bournemouth, Bristol, Devon, Dorset, Gloucestershire, North Somerset, Poole, Somerset, South Gloucestershire, Swindon, Torbay, Wiltshire

 

The 10cms "at this stage" only applies to Cornwall and Devon,

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Oh Fergie :( 

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4 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Oh Fergie :( 

What does that mean though.. as I know he doesn't comment on Dorset, as it's not points west region. But Dorset lies south of Wiltshire, well my part of Dorset does anyway. I may have to give him a tweet 

also, that seems to me, disruptive snow possible for the areas he mentions, and 2-4cm low levels elsewhere, so festivalking, I think you could be alright tbh

Edited by karlos1983

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A nice, sunny day, but very windy. Gusting to 31mph.

Temp: 10.8°C - Hum: 70% - Dew: 5.5°C - Bar: 1012.80hPa - Wind: WNW @ 10mph.

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5 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Oh Fergie :( 

Most realistic outcome based on a blend of different 0z high res modelling unfortunately. :(

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17 minutes ago, Boba fett said:

Its all part of the fun and the thrill of the chase!! Often we are left disappointed (In fact this is generally the case!!), but we would not have it any other way!

That's all fine if your the type of person who's mood doesn't swing wildly with each  and every model run that comes out, those who posted in the mod thread early this morning though should follow my advice  as there was lots of downbeat posts from the usual suspects (nobody who frequents this regional btw) and over the top reactions to what was being shown by the 00z runs lol

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Although the main area of precipitation will be mostly rain in my location, my focus has mainly been that I think sleet/snow showers are quite likely in the evening and overnight to low levels on the SW peninsua, as is forecast here. Hopefully these give some sort of snow cover to at least the moors and maybe other hills. I'd be happy with even falling snow at my low elevation.. lol

Not sure if Ian covers Devon/Cornwall with his tweets as never seen us mentioned and 'west country' often doesn't include us (nor does the Points West forecasts of course), although I always follow what he says with interest.
 

Edited by Evening thunder

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8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

What does that mean though.. as I know he doesn't comment on Dorset, as it's not points west region. But Dorset lies south of Wiltshire, well my part of Dorset does anyway. I may have to give him a tweet 

also, that seems to me, disruptive snow possible for the areas he mentions, and 2-4cm low levels elsewhere, so festivalking, I think you could be alright tbh

Keep your powder dry and save your tweet for tomorrow Karlos. You'll probably get a different response.

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And the MetO Chief Forecaster says...

As a developing area of low pressure moves east across southern Britain on Thursday there is potential for rain to turn rapidly to snow as cold air is drawn in. However, there is a great deal of uncertainty over the track and intensity of this system, meaning that confidence is low in the amount and extent of any snow.

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So it's anyone's guess what's going to happen and will be down to nowcasting..... I like it. :yahoo:

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Currently 9.5°C with bright sunshine. Wind is 21 knts & gusting 35 knts over the harbour.

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18 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

What does that mean though.. as I know he doesn't comment on Dorset, as it's not points west region. But Dorset lies south of Wiltshire, well my part of Dorset does anyway. I may have to give him a tweet 

also, that seems to me, disruptive snow possible for the areas he mentions, and 2-4cm low levels elsewhere, so festivalking, I think you could be alright tbh

Granted matey! I was hoping it was less marginal so everyone can have a bit like your good self. Still hopeful for here! Let us know how that tweet gets on.

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Wouldn't like to be a forecaster at the moment such a tough job they have lol

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Just now, Zephyr said:

Wouldn't like to be a forecaster at the moment such a tough job they have lol

Defo - it is really impossible to micro forecast events like this. Only 24 hrs to go now though!

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Nice little map here;

C140JqkXUAEmZwc.jpg

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1 minute ago, AWD said:

Nice little map here;

C140JqkXUAEmZwc.jpg

Area B seems to be a killer the lower you get the more snow you get, AMAZING...

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Just now, Dorsetbred said:

Area B seems to be a killer the lower you get the more snow you get, AMAZING...

I'm claiming being in B. :D

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Just looking at the trend on the Euro4 from Yesterday's 18Z, through to the 0Z and latest 06Z; the predicted rain to snow boundary moving in the right direction, i.e south and west.

Yes6ZEuro46pm.gif0ZEuro46pm.gif6ZEuro46pm.gif

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5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I'm claiming being in B. :D

I have also just moved WILTSHIRE into area B:yahoo:

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Seems a nice little feature passing over the region Thursday night.

 

nmm1.pngnmm2.png

 

 

 

Also the 6z NMM and Euro4 at 36 hours look very different lol

 

nmm36.pngeuro36.gif

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10 minutes ago, AWD said:

Nice little map here;

C140JqkXUAEmZwc.jpg

30% chance of 5-10, poss 15cm at low level, that looks great and if anything is trending more snowier by the update.

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I'm going from Sussex to Dorset tomorrrow late afternoon, might take the A3.

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out here in the far east of the region the wind is certainly starting to pick up here.....tomorrow looks promising for this neck of the woods (nr Swindon) the good thing is that we have a bit of elevation so hopefully that will help the situation, as to whether we see settling snow? how long is a piece of string...lol.....anyhoos the best of luck to all in our region for tomorrow

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