SW & CS England Regional Weather Discussion

[MattTarrant]

3 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Not liking that.. 

 

2 minutes ago, AWD said:

If that's what you have forecast up there, then what hope do I have down here.  Lol

*cough*cough* look ahead!!

 

[AWD]

Notice the 528DAM is now forecast to be further north over the Midlands, hence the rain & not snow, for the most part at least.  Need the low further SW to allow the colder air to encroach further SW;

Edited January 11, 2017 by AWD

[Nights King]

Shows 3 hours snow before it clears. I'm not convinced that we can get any on the deck in 3 hours. 

[Ali1977]

Just now, AWD said:

Notice the 528DAM is now forecast to be further north over the Cotswolds, hence the rain & not snow;

This is 1200, the snow won't get going till 1600 when the DP rapidly drop

[Nights King]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

This is 1200, the snow won't get going till 1600 when the DP rapidly drop

We wont have any heavy ppn by 4pm?

I hope we can get that colder air in mix earlier otherwise we will see a full day of heavy rain eagerly watching the back edge getting closer for a few wet flakes then blink and miss it. 

Edited January 11, 2017 by Nights King

[AWD]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

This is 1200, the snow won't get going till 1600 when the DP rapidly drop

Yes, but ideally you want the heavier PPN to be snow and not the lighter stuff at the back otherwise you're climbing a hard hill for any settling snow.  

Like I said earlier though, with the PPN not arriving to you until that bit later, and the colder air that bit more entrenched in the system, you're in a better place than most of us in this thread regarding snowfall.

[Nights King]

14 minutes ago, AWD said:

Yes, but ideally you want the heavier PPN to be snow and not the lighter stuff at the back otherwise you're climbing a hard hill for any settling snow.  

Like I said earlier though, with the PPN not arriving to you until that bit later, and the colder air that bit more entrenched in the system, you're in a better place than most of us in this thread regarding snowfall.

Bbc forecast show it turning widely from mid day starting on hills with a pixel over myself and then everywhere from 2pm though so Im a little confused, are they going off old data?

Or perhaps our apps dont deal with evaporative cooling well?

Edited January 11, 2017 by Nights King

[karlos1983]

14 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Bbc forecast show it turning widely from mid day starting on hills with a pixel over myself and then everywhere from 2pm though so Im a little confused, are they going off old data?

Or perhaps our apps dont deal with evaporative cooling well?

Not sure! but regardless tomorrow afternoon in here will be fun! No question about it, and I will be using the old tried and tested "look out the winda" method 

by the way, the GFS 06z keeps us in a very cold upper airmass with easterly feed for days from next week! And there is a battle ground scenario deep in just for fun territory. I wouldn't be surprised to see the easterly return in tonight's output, as of late, the 00z models seem to have been more progressive than the 12z. Of course I don't know which will be right, but just sayin! 

Edited January 11, 2017 by karlos1983
Spelling like a child

[Nights King]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Not sure! but regardless tomorrow afternoon in here will be fun! No question about it, and I will be using the old tried and tested "look out the winda" method 

I want to see it turn before night fall.. its more magic in the day time 

[festivalking]

5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Not sure! but regardless tomorrow afternoon in here will be fun! No question about it, and I will be using the old tried and tested "look out the winda" method 

The  latest MO weather warning  blurb  suggests they haven't got a scooby do of the track and intensity of the system. Wait and see indeed.

Mind you I seem to remember from years gone by systems coming into our area always seemed to track further south with each run. Can anyone confirm if the track of the system has altered in the last couple of days?

Edited January 11, 2017 by festivalking

[Nights King]

1 minute ago, festivalking said:

The  latest MO weather warning  blurb  suggests they haven't got a scooby do of the track and intensity of the system. Wait and see indeed.

Mind you I seem to remember from years gone by systems coming into our area always seemed to track further south with each run. Can anyone confirm if the track of the system has altered in the last couple of days?

South is bad from what i hear as it wont drag in as much cold air but I would like to see the system slow up and not exit east so fast.

[Ali1977]

I know GFS charts aren't great but the GEFS look even better for snow tomorrow compared to the Op, heavier and more widespread for many.

 

Interesting to see what Ian F tweets about - if he does.  Could we see an amber warning later today for some, I think we might.

Edited January 11, 2017 by Ali1977

[Nights King]

Right I have lots of jobs and chores to do before Thursday because I wont be leaving Walton mountain come lunch time Thursday 

Catch you all later.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Goes to show even the professionals aren't confident on tomorrow by the warning still hanging over nearly all of southern Britain.

[Bobafet]

Met Office update has increased slightly from yesterday, I think this has been increased due to the chances of Ice forming. Hopefully attached!

Yesterday it was on the row below so definitely a higher risk today.

Edited January 11, 2017 by Boba fett
Typo

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, Boba fett said:

Met Office update has increased slightly from yesterday, I think this has been increased due to the chances of Ice forming. Hopefully attached!

Yesterday it was on the row below so definitely a higher risk today.

Awesome, so tonight it will be on amber, then the top right by morning 

Edited January 11, 2017 by karlos1983

[Frosty_wsm]

Why are people over analysing the charts for tomorrow and what the met app on their phone shows, the forecast for tomorrow is changing  frequently, the one I've  just seen on bbc news channel is different and not as good for some parts of the west country  to the one this morning and I've no doubt they'll change again between now and tomorrow morning. 

My advice, sit back and enjoy the ride, if you see snow then great and If you don't then oh well, plenty of time left and the post earlier by Tamara in the mod thread sounded very interesting for the future. 

[Bobafet]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Awesome, so tonight it will be on amber, then the top right by morning 

We can but hope!! at least it has increased and not gone all together!!

[Bobafet]

1 minute ago, Smartie said:

Why are people over analysing the charts for tomorrow and what the met app on their phone shows, the forecast for tomorrow is changing  frequently, the one I've  just seen on bbc news channel is different and not as good for some parts of the west country  to the one this morning and I've no doubt they'll change again between now and tomorrow morning. 

My advice, sit back and enjoy the ride, if you see snow then great and If you don't then oh well, plenty of time left and the post earlier by Tamara in the mod thread sounded very interesting for the future. 

Its all part of the fun and the thrill of the chase!! Often we are left disappointed (In fact this is generally the case!!), but we would not have it any other way!

[festivalking]

New weather warning from the MO, snow risk now extends further west!

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1484179200

5-10cm above 200m expected. Lets see I got 5 metres above that!

But also 2cm for lower spots too!!

Edited January 11, 2017 by festivalking

[festivalking]

6 minutes ago, Smartie said:

Why are people over analysing the charts for tomorrow and what the met app on their phone shows, the forecast for tomorrow is changing  frequently, the one I've  just seen on bbc news channel is different and not as good for some parts of the west country  to the one this morning and I've no doubt they'll change again between now and tomorrow morning. 

My advice, sit back and enjoy the ride, if you see snow then great and If you don't then oh well, plenty of time left and the post earlier by Tamara in the mod thread sounded very interesting for the future. 

 

2 minutes ago, Boba fett said:

Its all part of the fun and the thrill of the chase!! Often we are left disappointed (In fact this is generally the case!!), but we would not have it any other way!

 

Totally concur Boba fett, this is the "joy" of chasing snow. its always going to be marginal down here. 

[Rich_Clements]

1 minute ago, festivalking said:

New weather warning from the MO, snow risk now extends further west!

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1484179200

 

yeah the app popped up this warning just now

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, festivalking said:

New weather warning from the MO, snow risk now extends further west!

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1484179200

 

Best post of the day, from no accumulation to up to 10cm on higher ground.  This could well be amber if this firms up later today as 4inch in the UK causes proper road issues, especially sticky wet snow. boooooom

[karlos1983]

Just now, Rich_Clements said:

yeah the app popped up this warning just now

My app has been going bonkers this morning, updating every 30 mins lol. God knows where we will end up come tomorrow. I'm enjoying it though! 

[Summer Sun]