SW & CS England Regional Weather Discussion

[jethro]

1 minute ago, Lamposangel delightcher said:

Id expect the metoffice warnings will now change and have the snow depths added onto them for your area this morning :-)

That's about 3ft, isn't it? Just imagine if the forecasts went horribly wrong and we ended up with this again; the stuff of dreams :-)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/local/wiltshire/hi/people_and_places/nature/newsid_9001000/9001261.stm

[Frosty hollows]

It's a balmy 10 degrees here this morning. The prospect of being knee deep in snow (cough) in 36 hours seems very far away!

Happy model watching people!

[lettice]

10 minutes ago, jethro said:

I think that's the one issued yesterday lunchtime, don't think it's yet been updated to include the latest info. Forecast has changed but the warnings haven't.

Yes the Met office warnings don't seem to have changed since 12:19 on Tue.

[AWD]

The 0z WRF NMM model on a broadly similar page to the Euro4, with a transition to back edge snowfall across our region, more so on higher ground but the heaviest PPN would have gone into SE England by then with them seeing some heavier snowfall;

I see the model thread is in meltdown even though the outlook is broadly similiar to recent days for next week, ie a colder, dry continental flow for the south and a less cold atlantic influence for the north.

Edited January 11, 2017 by AWD

[Azazel]

If I was a betting man, I would say settling/decent snow for Basingstoke Eastwards.

 

This always seems to happen for us (I live in Whitchurch about 12 miles west of Basingstoke) and I swear we are always just slightly too far west to get the good stuff.

[Bristawl Si]

The BBC forecasts you guys showed earlier prob based on last night's runs. Latest model runs show main snow risk for the SE tom pm.

[AWD]

I think these tweets for Chris Fawkes sum up the situation well.  The further east on is, the greater the chance of seeing more of the white stuff.

Chris Fawkes‏ @_chrisfawkesThere's a decent chance of rain turning to snow in central S & SE England tomorrow afternoon & eve. It is uncertain, but 5cm possible. 1/2

Chris Fawkes‏ @_chrisfawkes
2/2 The uncertainty hinges on the size of wave that develops on the front (not straight) therefore the degree of interaction with cold air
 

Chris Fawkes‏ @_chrisfawkes
OK one more! The bigger the wave, the more the cold air will move in & the slower the precip to move away - all favouring snow transition
 

[AWD]

The GFS 06z Op suggests late tomorrow afternoon could signal a changeover from rain - sleet - snow;

The downside of this is, as per the majority of other modelling, the heaviest PPN has moved into SE England by then & we are left with the backedge drabs.

The home counties etc could have a decent snowfall event as things stand.  Anyone fancy a trip to Bracknell?

Edited January 11, 2017 by AWD

[knocker]

[festivalking]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

From a complete selfish point of view that blob in the south west is a bullseye for me!

But.........the MO/BBC weather app has updated and the 6 hours of heavy snow has somewhat gone 

Nowcasting the order of the day.....

Edited January 11, 2017 by festivalking

[Nights King]

Still half asleep whats the concensus this morning then?

We still in with a chance?

[Ali1977]

BBC has upgraded the forecast for my area in the last hour, heavy snow 1600-1800

[AWD]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

BBC has upgraded the forecast for my area in the last hour, heavy snow 1600-1800

You're in a decent position, at the far east of the "west country region".

[khodds]

Someone keep me updated on the MAD thread today please.. I darent go in! Plus I'm at work.. it's easier to listen to you lovely people

[*Stormforce~beka*]

I'm ere'!! It has to snow! My little girl is getting excited about building a snowman! :-( Poor child she is going to be soooo disappointed ...!

[chris55]

Three hours of heavy snow.... these apps are so changeable but I'll bank this update  

 

[Nights King]

2 minutes ago, AWD said:

You're in a decent position, at the far east of the "west country region".

Yes swindon area looks very good. 

Got a feeling we have the scraps further west but then I'm still waking up, light patchy snow wont have chance to settle after heavy rain, going to need the heavy ppn.

[MattTarrant]

3 minutes ago, khodds said:

Someone keep me updated on the MAD thread today please.. I darent go in! Plus I'm at work.. it's easier to listen to you lovely people

I just went in there, now i believe we are a week from a heatwave 

[AWD]

2 minutes ago, khodds said:

Someone keep me updated on the MAD thread today please.. I darent go in! Plus I'm at work.. it's easier to listen to you lovely people

For our region, not much as changed.  

Tomorrow - rain - hill snow - light wet snow tomorrow for most of us, more in the way of snow the further east you go.

Friday - cold but mainly dry.  Some snow showers over the SW moors

The weekend - chilly to start with, less cold to finish with.  Some leading edge wet snow a small probability.

Next week - starts of less cold, maybe some light rain edging away at first.  Midweek onwards we may still import a continental flow with some colder temperatures returning and night frosts.  Dry though.

[AWD]

2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Three hours of heavy snow.... these apps are so changeable but I'll bank this update  

 

Might fancy an Ice Cream from Winstons tomorrow afternoon then.  Lol.

[AWD]

2 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Yes swindon area looks very good. 

Got a feeling we have the scraps further west but then I'm still waking up, light patchy snow wont have chance to settle after heavy rain, going to need the heavy ppn.

The heavier PPN has cross model support of being mainly rain for us to start with and turning to snow the further east one goes, along with altitude.  Home counties the sweet spot at the moment along with Oxfordshire area.

However, just because that's the latest model guidance doesn't mean that's what will happen. It's the favourite outcome but the favourite doesn't always win.

[Nights King]

Not liking that.. 

[AWD]

1 minute ago, Nights King said:

Not liking that.. 

If that's what you have forecast up there, then what hope do I have down here.  Lol

[jtay]

3 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Not liking that.. 

To be fair, that only goes until 2pm. What's it say 4-6pm? Has the precipitation moved through by then?

[festivalking]

4 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Not liking that.. 

Must look better later on?