SW & CS England Regional Weather Discussion

[kumquat]

I think I'm in that gap between B and D, just SOUTH of the M4. Jack all for me! Haha - I love marginal events. Keeps us on our toes!

[jtay]

As well as the colder air being forecast to move in around at around 4pm, the predicted wind gusts are really stepping up in the latest BBC updates.

It's looking more likely that rush hour is going to be a game for some.

[knocker]

Quite breezy gusting 40mph with some sunshine, patchy Sc, and temp 10C

[nettie]

I'm still trying not to get to excited, I work in a care home in Old Sarum so have reserved a bed for tomorrow night just in case lol. Wishful thinking that we might get snowed in.

[Nights King]

One quick one from me.. Just seen the latest lunchtime forecast and looks like west country is only on the back edge of the ppn when it turns... could be a blink and ull miss it.. 

[kumquat]

3 minutes ago, Nights King said:

One quick one from me.. Just seen the latest lunchtime forecast and looks like west country is only on the back edge of the ppn when it turns... could be a blink and ull miss it.. 

Yes, but what they're not taking into account is that it will stall, spin, wraparound, swivel and intensify all over the West Country at 4:55pm causing rush hour havoc.

[festivalking]

Looking past the next 48hrs (i know its hard)  or so ,after a brief milder weekend looks like next week will be dry and getting colder again as the week goes on. The weather appears to be coming from an eastern quadrant be interesting to see if this develops into something really cold. But after a couple of wet /snowy days it will be dry in what is so far a very much drier winter. 

Edited January 11, 2017 by festivalking

[karlos1983]

7 minutes ago, Nights King said:

One quick one from me.. Just seen the latest lunchtime forecast and looks like west country is only on the back edge of the ppn when it turns... could be a blink and ull miss it.. 

Good job I'm a problem solver NK 

[Mark Neal.]

17 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

out here in the far east of the region the wind is certainly starting to pick up here.....tomorrow looks promising for this neck of the woods (nr Swindon) the good thing is that we have a bit of elevation so hopefully that will help the situation, as to whether we see settling snow? how long is a piece of string...lol.....anyhoos the best of luck to all in our region for tomorrow

Indeed! Best of luck to everyone.  Bit further East and North of you and hoping to see some snowflakes falling. (Yes that's how drab it's been for quite a while). Been burned many times before looking at all the outputs. Will come down to now casting and seeing how far the cold air can dig in before the precip moves SE. Expect very little and you will surprised! 

[AWD]

As Chris Fawkes says on twitter;

"The bendier the wave is the further north the PPN gets, thus greater chance of snow"

Something to watch for on satellite imagery later.

[Frosty hollows]

1 hour ago, festivalking said:

Oh Fergie  

I'll take that 

[Frosty hollows]

1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

I'm claiming being in B. 

Me too!

[karlos1983]

One thing for sure, we will all be looking with a raised heart rhythm at the hi res models tomorrow morning.

in setups like this, I sleep really badly, how ridiculous is that  shame on me and my inner child

[Mark Neal.]

8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

One thing for sure, we will all be looking with a raised heart rhythm at the hi res models tomorrow morning.

in setups like this, I sleep really badly, how ridiculous is that  shame on me and my inner child

Your not the only one! 

[Polar Bear]

15 minutes ago, Mark N said:

Indeed! Best of luck to everyone.  Bit further East and North of you and hoping to see some snowflakes falling. (Yes that's how drab it's been for quite a while). Been burned many times before looking at all the outputs. Will come down to now casting and seeing how far the cold air can dig in before the precip moves SE. Expect very little and you will surprised! 

Ola Mark!

Nothing like a marginal potential snow event to bring together my ol' NW friends... Ha ha, Just need GTLTW and a few others to appear and Ill be happy even if we only manage a few sad flakes wafting in the air for ten mins...

The scenarios I consider will happen in order of likelihood of occurring (1 is most likely, 5 is very unlikely)... All not model related of course!

 

1. Rain and Big rain - Big chill in the wind so good job I made some hearty casseroles this week yum yum. M4 south only - More of a 2 for M4 north

2. Sleet/snow then rain at Thursday evening rush hour - Both sides of M4 looking quite wild but nothing to cause any more chaos or congestion than a Peak hour traffic or everyday rail problems. All done and dusted but no dusting) by 9pm

3. Light white fluffy snow flakes dancing in the breeze, leaving a dusting of icing like on mince pies in the garden but finishing at 9pm - M4 south predominantly and more of 4 for M4 north

4. Big chunky white flakes so big you think they are large tasty cookies to eat, rushing in the cold breeze leaving a decent covering on gardens and paths - slightly wet though so roads still passable...but still congestion and traffic chaos ensues because that is what we do - blame the weather!

5.  Tabloid Armageddon  - ha ha ! No chance. I will still eat my hearty casseroles though

 

PB

[Mapantz]

33mph gust here, not too long ago.

My new quad copter has arrived! I won't be flying today though, not unless @karlos1983 can catch it when it drifts his way.

[khodds]

Bah humbug. It's all over for our quadrant then... am in B. B for to expect b*gger all  

[karlos1983]

Just now, khodds said:

Bah humbug. It's all over for our quadrant then... am in B. B for to expect b*gger all  

Do not give up Khodds!!! Noooooooo

[khodds]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Do not give up Khodds!!! Noooooooo

I'll try not to..... wahhhhhhh  

[festivalking]

3 minutes ago, khodds said:

Bah humbug. It's all over for our quadrant then... am in B. B for to expect b*gger all  

 

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Do not give up Khodds!!! Noooooooo

 

Its peaks and troughs in here today, think we are all feeling it. We'll give the MAD thread a run for their money with the up and down mood in here today and tomorrow. Difference is we do it with a relaxed west country smile on our faces! 

[karlos1983]

Some opportunities for those further west of our region overnight into Friday 

[khodds]

True festival king.

im not sleeping well at all! I wake up in a state of nervous exhaustion lol 

anyway. Winter is over. Simples. 

[Polar Bear]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Some opportunities for those further west of our region overnight into Friday 

Speaking of the MAD thread ...what is the MJO they keep going on about?

 

Edit... ah got it MAdden Julian Oscillation ... wow

 

Edited January 11, 2017 by Polar Bear
check

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Polar Bear said:

Speaking of the MAD thread ...what is the MJO they keep going on about?

 

Many Jumpsof Output 

Edited January 11, 2017 by karlos1983

[festivalking]

Just now, khodds said:

True festival king.

im not sleeping well at all! I wake up in a state of nervous exhaustion lol 

anyway. Winter is over. Simples. 

Same here but thats because I have a 14 month year old who doesn't think sleep is for her  For once I don't mind as I can spend the night checking endless pointless ppn charts and of course keep up to date with the forum!