Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[whiskers]

Can't believe how quiet it is on here considering there's snow on the way!!

[WINTRY WALES]

2 minutes ago, whiskers said:

Can't believe how quiet it is on here considering there's snow on the way!!

Yes.....except for us poor South Eastern Welsh snow hunters!!

[andymusic]

17 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Yes.....except for us poor South Eastern Welsh snow hunters!!

maybe we should all move to scotland lol

[whiskers]

24 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Yes.....except for us poor South Eastern Welsh snow hunters!!

I know!! Help me blow it across! We are bound to have a few flakes,aren't we?!

[whiskers]

Lots of talk about prolonged cold in the model threads,that has to be good for us,south east wales are bound to get their share eventually!!

[andymusic]

19 minutes ago, whiskers said:

Lots of talk about prolonged cold in the model threads,that has to be good for us,south east wales are bound to get their share eventually!!

ECM still going for a major easterly after this initial northerly/nor westerly - so yes you never know - but gfs still slow to smell the coffee

[Pembroke Dangler]

2 hours ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Yes.....except for us poor South Eastern Welsh snow hunters!!

You'll get your share if the ecm is correct for next week

[andymusic]

8 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

You'll get your share if the ecm is correct for next week

BBC are still pondering about thursday too - not sure what's gonna happen - that tells me alot - lots of forces at work and complicated weather set ups - could lead to alsorts of fun and games

[Jackfrost]

Regarding the snow on Thursday/Friday, I remember several similar setups in the 03-06 period which were predicted to only impact North and West Wales but which actually brought heavy falls to my neck of the woods. Also, if I recall correctly, the northerly of December 17th, 2010 was predicted to mostly impact North Wales, and we know what happened there.

On the other hand, it's far from unknown for the Beacons to sap showers from the north of all moisture, as largely happened in the half-hearted northerlies of Januaries 14, 15 and 16, although this upcoming airstream will be more unstable and unpredictable.

In other words; it's still all up in the air as to exactly where in Wales will see the most snow.

[andymusic]

59 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

Regarding the snow on Thursday/Friday, I remember several similar setups in the 03-06 period which were predicted to only impact North and West Wales but which actually brought heavy falls to my neck of the woods. Also, if I recall correctly, the northerly of December 17th, 2010 was predicted to mostly impact North Wales, and we know what happened there.

On the other hand, it's far from unknown for the Beacons to sap showers from the north of all moisture, as largely happened in the half-hearted northerlies of Januaries 14, 15 and 16, although this upcoming airstream will be more unstable and unpredictable.

In other words; it's still all up in the air as to exactly where in Wales will see the most snow.

yep it's all up in the air till it falls down on the ground lol lol lol - thursday does look fairly interesting depending on how far north the front gets and how it mixes in with the cold air coming down from the north - this front obviously doesn't have to get sapped over the mountains so could come fully laden with something wintry for us

update - gfs could well be back tracking towards the ecm solution now of a beast from the east by early next week - all to play for - siberian weather incoming

Edited January 10, 2017 by andymusic

[Gee]

A lot of excitement in the model thread now - GFS finally onboard

 

[Sionzzz]

It's looking very marginal for my end of the woods (albeit basically sea level) METO showing snow/sleet and rain, can we expect upgrades closer to the event? 

[Gee]

METO will update again later today. And I would expect a few upgrades - especially for your area for Thursday/Friday - Sionzzz. It will eventually come down to now-casting and lamppost watching!

 

[andymusic]

15 minutes ago, Gee said:

A lot of excitement in the model thread now - GFS finally onboard

 

looking like a beasterly from middle of next week with ice below zero days and loads of snow - this could be it guys - what central europe just had in the way of metres of snow could well be on it's way to Wales especially with a nice Atlantic front then pushing in against the cold too - lovely jubbly

[liamtellis]

6 minutes ago, Sionzzz said:

It's looking very marginal for my end of the woods (albeit basically sea level) METO showing snow/sleet and rain, can we expect upgrades closer to the event? 

Betws y Coed at sea level?

[Gee]

I am trying to keep feet firmly on the ground this time around Andy - so many times we have been here and let down...but it is hard to stay level headed right now. excitement and a lot of hope is definitely building. Looking forward to a few flakes this week, hopefully a taster of what is to come.

[Sionzzz]

Just now, liamtellis said:

Betws y Coed at sea level?

Well 30m asl

[liamtellis]

4 minutes ago, Sionzzz said:

Well 30m asl

Is it that low? Wow, I'm from Deiniolen originally which is about 250m and I've always thought of Betws y Coed being higher, colder and snowier!

[Sionzzz]

3 minutes ago, liamtellis said:

Is it that low? Wow, I'm from Deiniolen originally which is about 250m and I've always thought of Betws y Coed being higher, colder and snowier!

Yes quite low, I know most people think of betws y coed as being high altitude when it's actually not, the villages surrounding capel curig, capel garmon, dolwyddelan etc are around 300m+ So annoying as I'm from Penmachno 10 minutes away with elevation of 280m asl so when it's sleeting here it will be snowing there. Maybe it's because Deiniolen is closer to the sea for the misconception? 

[liamtellis]

15 minutes ago, Sionzzz said:

Yes quite low, I know most people think of betws y coed as being high altitude when it's actually not, the villages surrounding capel curig, capel garmon, dolwyddelan etc are around 300m+ So annoying as I'm from Penmachno 10 minutes away with elevation of 280m asl so when it's sleeting here it will be snowing there. Maybe it's because Deiniolen is closer to the sea for the misconception? 

I love Betws y Coed, so beautiful and picturesque. Could be - we're certainly quite close to the sea, and with the height as well we can get some very heavy snowfall and ridiculously strong winds. Well I've learned something today. Siarad Cymraeg?

[Sionzzz]

7 minutes ago, liamtellis said:

I love Betws y Coed, so beautiful and picturesque. Could be - we're certainly quite close to the sea, and with the height as well we can get some very heavy snowfall and ridiculously strong winds. Well I've learned something today. Siarad Cymraeg?

Yndw iaith cynta, ti? Gawni obeithio fydda ni yn lwcus dydd iau a eira ym mhob man! Haha! 

[Buzz]

1 hour ago, Gee said:

A lot of excitement in the model thread now - GFS finally onboard

 

For now .......

[liamtellis]

10 minutes ago, Sionzzz said:

Yndw iaith cynta, ti? Gawni obeithio fydda ni yn lwcus dydd iau a eira ym mhob man! Haha! 

Ydw tad - Cymraeg iaith gyntaf! Byw yng Nghaerdydd bellach ddo, ond yn methu'r Gogs! Ia gobeithio - Mam sy'n byw yn Neiniolen wedi cynhyrfu'n lan. Neis cwrdd a chdi!

[bradymk]

The warning has just been updated. Warning area size has decreased to more western and northern Wales.

i wouldn't read too much into it, winds will blow showers well inland but definitely greater risk of settling snow anyway the further west and north you are. 

Plenty more changes to come and that's before the potential easterly.

im in Cardiff, I imagine we'll see some falling snow at some point Thursday although the beacons may sap most of the showers.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Just now, bradythemole said:

The warning has just been updated. Warning area size has decreased to more western and northern Wales.

i wouldn't read too much into it, winds will blow showers well inland but definitely greater risk of settling snow anyway the further west and north you are. 

Plenty more changes to come and that's before the potential easterly.

im in Cardiff, I imagine we'll see some falling snow at some point Thursday although the beacons may sap most of the showers.

I agree, Not worth reading to much into the warnings just yet as these will likely change further if possible small scale features get picked up by higher resolution models as we get closer to the time. 

For now we know showers most frequent in the north and west, but with a strong north west flow don't be surprised to see these dig further south and east:

 

Upper air looks very cold also around -8c for a time:

 

That cold air flowing over the Irish Sea should really get the showers going, maybe a little thunder and lightning thrown in for good measure in the heavier showers!