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Fingers crossed I get a snowy birthday treat here in Pontypool tomorrow . Just missed out the other day,  not enough elevation, just up the road at Blaenavon they had a nice covering . 

Bit of birthday snowman building would be lovely :)

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Looking good for team wales today / this eve- Have fun !!

I'm happy now I've had my fix ? There's a nice covering on the hills  

Some photos from this morning up on the Rhigos between Hirwaun and Treherbert. Here we are around 480-500m asl  it was stunning with amazing views over the Brecon Beacons and beyond. The mountain

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National BBC weather TV forecast for us down south was dreadful. If the southern shift in the models does come to fruition then it's been one almighty mess-up from the Met Office/ BBC. Notice many forecasters have been very quiet on Twitter.

Quite frankly, I haven't got a clue what's going to happen. But fully prepared for some warm snow.

 

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1 minute ago, RhysWales said:

National BBC weather TV forecast for us down south was dreadful. If the southern shift in the models does come to fruition then it's been one almighty mess-up from the Met Office/ BBC. Notice many forecasters have been very quiet on Twitter.

Quite frankly, I haven't got a clue what's going to happen. But fully prepared for some warm snow.

 

I don’t think that is fair snow is notoriously difficult to predict and it hasn’t happened yet could still track further north! 

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Temp rising quick, 3.1c now, anyone else noticed this? 

If the cold air is likely to wrap back round the low and temps drop again, do we know a time frame yet this is likely to happen for us along the south? 

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2 minutes ago, RhysWales said:

National BBC weather TV forecast for us down south was dreadful. If the southern shift in the models does come to fruition then it's been one almighty mess-up from the Met Office/ BBC. Notice many forecasters have been very quiet on Twitter.

Quite frankly, I haven't got a clue what's going to happen. But fully prepared for some warm snow.

 

all the forecasters are tucking into their Saturday Chinese takeaway - and I think they'd rather not call this one too much just in case in does go awry on them I suppose - the beeb are staying steadfast they got it right, maybe they have and maybe it'll be not quite right - we shall see

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It is looking promising with a majority of model output favouring southern (ie, the most populated and where most members are from) parts of Wales seeing heavy snow right the way through this upcoming event, but we need to remember that not all models and forecasters are on board and be prepared for the possibility that it might be a rain to snow event for some of us.

I'd give the possibility of an all-snow event with accumulations as:

South of a line from Cwmbran/Caerphilly/Pontypridd/Maesteg: 15%

North of this: 50%

Heads of the Valleys/high ground further south: 70%

As for here in Nelson, the snow that melted in patches in the sun earlier today has stopped melting and it feels absolutely raw outside, a heavy damp cold.

Edited by Jackfrost
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It is all so confuzzeling.... one minute in south west thread the champagne was on ice and i was getting hopeful and excited and next time I looked, champagne was put back in the cupboard and it is very deflating. Just going to look out the window tomorrow and see what falls from the sky. Good luck to everyone though who wants the snow. 

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5 minutes ago, Cymro said:

I don’t think that is fair snow is notoriously difficult to predict and it hasn’t happened yet could still track further north! 

Not saying the individual forecasters have got it wrong- just the call from the main BBC and met output to steadfastly call it as a rain event was not the right call. Imo a better way of putting it would be with the caveats that came with Friday's forecast.

As I said anyway, 'if' and as you say it could indeed end further north. As I said, I'm fully prepared for rain!

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1 minute ago, Snowmadsam said:

I present to you, the radar watcher starter pack!

-4 upper air holding nicely....

imageproxy.php?img=&key=d8af95ed7f22db9efile.thumb.jpeg.db7f63124056ebcfb9f6588257db4244.jpeg

Good to see!

But Twiglets, tea in a jammy dodger mug and absolutely spiffy fridge magnets? Do you want to be my new best friend, Sam?

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3 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

What you think on Cardiff then mate, looks like the temp has shot up?

You have asked this question so many times. Please stop. Touch and go. Wait and see. There's enough uncertainty in it as it is without "Will it snow" questions. Remember, it's only the start of winter :)

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4 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

Good to see!

But Twiglets, tea in a jammy dodger mug and absolutely spiffy fridge magnets? Do you want to be my new best friend, Sam?

I can tell you are jealous! I ate the GU cake sorry! 

Twiglet anyone? *passes tin around* 

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Things are looking very promising for the Northern Valleys tomorrow and Certainty for Mid Wales, but things can easily change, and we are reaching Nowcasting territory.

Interestingly the Temps for Swansea and Cardiff are set to be 3c and 4c at midday tomorrow and very slowly dropping thereafter (Current Met Office forecast), dropping from mid morning highs of around 8c. So while heavy rain is expected overnight / in the morning, perhaps some back edge wintriness.

 

Edited by J10
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2 minutes ago, Blackjack said:

This could be quite interesting for me. Meteociel has me there or there about for big accumulations. 10 miles either way from huge dumping of white stuff to meh. 

320B9B4C-4D22-4F3A-8F3A-283160EADEFF.gif

It is very interesting to how much this has varied from run to run.

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10 minutes ago, Blackjack said:

This could be quite interesting for me. Meteociel has me there or there about for big accumulations. 10 miles either way from huge dumping of white stuff to meh. 

320B9B4C-4D22-4F3A-8F3A-283160EADEFF.gif

This is still on a knife edge, as shown in that chart. Normally in an event like this, an all-snow event (I'm thinking March 2004, February 2007, January 2013), you can expect temperatures of 1°C or so in Cardiff and 0--2°C as you go a little further north, but thanks to some mild air possibly getting uncomfortably close to South Wales we're seeing variations of 6-7°C between the Valleys and coast, hence 23 cm in Brynmawr and next to nothing in Barry.

Edited by Jackfrost
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