Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[keithlucky]

20 hours ago, Sky Full said:

Now I know it’s WINTER!!  

Knife edged stuff! Last Wales white Xmas was 2002.North and west Wales looks the best location atm.Wales will see some snow before the years out ,after the miserable year we need some cheer!!!

Edited December 19, 2020 by keithlucky
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[keithlucky]

On 19/12/2020 at 16:57, keithlucky said:

Knife edged stuff! Last Wales white Xmas was 2002.North and west Wales looks the best location atm.Wales will see some snow before the years out ,after the miserable year we need some cheer!!!

So white xmas is off ,high pressure will be sitting on the UK with a frosty xmas. . . morning .From the 27th get very interesting with a gale force northerly setting in,with outbreaks of sleet snow moving in,so a nice wintry outlook.!

[andymusic]

latest gfs from the 27th - potential for 18 hours snow over Wales

[keithlucky]

27 minutes ago, andymusic said:

latest gfs from the 27th - potential for 18 hours snow over Wales

A gale force northerly will help to drive temperatures down.My only concern Iceland is not that cold atm.But a few days frost will set things up nicely  and help the cooling down process ..The next few weeks looks very wintry to say the least!

[dbaloo]

Do we dare start to believe????

[andymusic]

and another lovely chart

[keithlucky]

5 hours ago, andymusic said:

and another lovely chart

More stunning output tonight. Some back edge snow possible as moves south across Wales on 27th on  the 28th the  gale force northerly.Pick of the x rated charts is this one .Look for the kink in the isobars over The north ,a more organised band of snow moves south over the UK.

[keithlucky]

5 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

More stunning output tonight. Some back edge snow possible as moves south across Wales on 27th on  the 28th the  gale force northerly.Pick of the x rated charts is this one .Look for the kink in the isobars over The north ,a more organised band of snow moves south over the UK.

A polar low forms after that and again a more organised band of snow comes down from the north ,as the wind slackens more continuous snow.

Edited December 21, 2020 by keithlucky
Typo

[andymusic]

and some more ecm charts

Edited December 21, 2020 by andymusic

[andymusic]

the 850hpa debate - quote from kent clipper from the model thread - please also add we have our mountains on our side also in Wales lol

"The iffy looking 850 Hpa's have been the subject of many discussions in recent days. It is my opinion that the precipitation around is going to swing the right of white rather than wet for various reasons.

1. Time of year, very little solar insulation - short daylight hours

2. Slack set up, we create our cold pool all the time we keep this synoptic set up - temps will dive down the longer this continues

3. Thicknesses are circa 520-525 for many for much of the week. (Easily supportive of snow).

4. Pressure is circa 980mb of the low over the uk - meaning that the '850Hpa' temperature is closer to the boundary layer

5. The airmass is unstable. Mesoscale trough features will only show up within 48 hours in most cases.

6. Our old friend evaporative cooling will play its hand due to a lack of mixing out breezes."

Plus the BBC are now saying heavy rain but things also getting interesting after xmas in latest forecasts - meto also have snow mentioned in their long range forecasts

Edited December 21, 2020 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

15 minutes ago, andymusic said:

the 850hpa debate - quote from kent clipper from the model thread - please also add we have our mountains on our side also in Wales lol

"The iffy looking 850 Hpa's have been the subject of many discussions in recent days. It is my opinion that the precipitation around is going to swing the right of white rather than wet for various reasons.

1. Time of year, very little solar insulation - short daylight hours

2. Slack set up, we create our cold pool all the time we keep this synoptic set up - temps will dive down the longer this continues

3. Thicknesses are circa 520-525 for many for much of the week. (Easily supportive of snow).

4. Pressure is circa 980mb of the low over the uk - meaning that the '850Hpa' temperature is closer to the boundary layer

5. The airmass is unstable. Mesoscale trough features will only show up within 48 hours in most cases.

6. Our old friend evaporative cooling will play its hand due to a lack of mixing out breezes."

Plus the BBC are now saying heavy rain but things also getting interesting after xmas in latest forecasts - meto also have snow mentioned in their long range forecasts

Louise leah said :interestingly, weather early next week interesting weather ahead,she said that with a touch of glee,nice to see met coming on board.Expect met office have some interesting updates over the next few days.

 

 

 

Edited December 21, 2020 by keithlucky

[Missdolly]

Been following the crazy thread for days , looking good for us guys !

 

[keithlucky]

1 hour ago, Missdolly said:

Been following the crazy thread for days , looking good for us guys !

 

Loving it 

[andymusic]

27th and 28th looking great for us in Wales

 

[andymusic]

oh and the 29th - just looking better and better as we get nearer the time

[keithlucky]

6 minutes ago, andymusic said:

27th and 28th looking great for us in Wales

 

Look at the flow Andy from Northern Russia .Who said snow was a thing of the past.

Edited December 21, 2020 by keithlucky

[andymusic]

some pm air cold Canadian North westerlies for the 31st New Year's Eve into New Year's Day on the 18z run

[andymusic]

borrowed lol

[wimblettben]

Not Good in my eyes.

Been bad enough here with the recent heavy rain and local floods, and now we have possible snow and ice to contend with which is even more disruptive and dangerous then rain.

Ideally i'd rather we just had some more crisp but dryer and sunny days at the moment as its just been miserable weather recently.

[andymusic]

5 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

Not Good in my eyes.

Been bad enough here with the recent heavy rain and local floods, and now we have possible snow and ice to contend with which is even more disruptive and dangerous then rain.

Ideally i'd rather we just had some more crisp but dryer and sunny days at the moment as its just been miserable weather recently.

Think you'll get your wish xmas and boxing day with cold and crisp - after that it looks like winter will bite right into the new year

[keithlucky]

VERY good lol.Borrowed snow depth charts.

Edited December 22, 2020 by keithlucky
Error

[Pembroke Dangler]

20 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

VERY good lol.Borrowed snow depth charts.

Good old Swansea snow shield in great effect there lol could swing back to yesterday’s chart where we had a couple cm’s. plenty of time until the details get firmed up on but we’ve got a ticket to the raffle at least. 

[keithlucky]

2 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

Good old Swansea snow shield in great effect there lol could swing back to yesterday’s chart where we had a couple cm’s. plenty of time until the details get firmed up on but we’ve got a ticket to the raffle at least. 

Don't worry with a gale force northerly we all in prime position.Just enjoy the build up. 

[LJ1224]

Guarantee, as it does every year, Port Talbot will be left wanting. At the first mention of snow I came here and will likely be glued for days, ha! Happy almost Christmas, everyone.

[Pembroke Dangler]

Bit gutted about lockdown really, as can’t go for a drive up to Brecon and walk up pen y fan next week between Xmas and new year to got a snow fix. So fingers crossed the snow can come here and bury me