Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Jackfrost]

On 04/12/2020 at 06:27, keithlucky said:

No apology needed the met office s wrong most of the time lol.More precipitation moves North to South over Wales overnight if the rain is heavy enough we have a better chance of seeing some snow in the areas you mention.

Thanks Keith. I always err on the side of caution with these things and don't like to ramp but yesterday even that wasn't enough!

Looking to the present, there's a band of fairly heavy precipitation now moving in from the E-NE. Snow is being reported from it in Gloucestershire and Wiltshire so that'll likely equal snow in southeast Wales when it does arrive, possibly even to fairly low levels, and once it moves in it should be with us for an hour or two.

Edited December 5, 2020 by Jackfrost

[keithlucky]

16 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

Thanks Keith. I always err on the side of caution with these things and try not to ramp but yesterday even that wasn't enough!

Looking to the present, there's a band of fairly heavy precipitation now moving in from the E-NE. Snow is being reported from it in Gloucestershire and Wiltshire so that'll likely equal snow in southeast Wales when it does arrive, possibly even to fairly low levels, and once it moves in it should be with us for an hour or two.

That's snow forecasting for you. Worth a read read in the South East thread Tuesday a few cms of snow on the coastal areas a few miles inland rain,that's the unpredictability of the great British weather! Moving on great out charts for the Week ahead as High Pressure builds from the N east great opportunities of seeing more seasonal weather by next weekend.

Edited December 5, 2020 by keithlucky
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[Cwmbran Eira]

It’s snowing! Quite heavy. Not forecast.

[whiskers]

Snowing here in blackwood,all be it a bit wet it’s still snow!

[Bafan]

Snowing heavily and sticking here in Tredegar, 0.9c.  typical was just going to go out shopping but not chancing the street a sec 

[Bafan]

Tredegar traffic cam is off but this is ebbw vale and highest point.  Highest point is interesting with the snow line...

[Sugarloaf80]

Yep snowing in Gilwern. Not settling but is above around 200m I'd say.

[Frostbite88]

Snowing nicely up in croespenmaen, sticking to cars and pavements, think we are roughly 240m asl

[dbaloo]

Nice to see a light covering this morning in Manmoel. Stopped now and turning to rain but think this morning was more than I saw all last winter  

[Sky Full]

The GFS is now showing a series of wet and possibly quite windy low pressure systems lining up to target the UK before and after Christmas.  This is by no means set in stone yet but as the days go by it looks increasingly likely that a lot of rain will feature in the forecast for Wales in late December.  Those of us who are most adversely affected by heavy rain may want to take note of this.

[Sky Full]

Fairly widespread prolonged rain is expected over the next 48 hours affecting most of Wales but the south in particular.  Possible accumulation by Monday evening shown by this chart from the UKMO.....

 

We’ve all seen worse but it’s worth knowing what’s coming especially if you have problems with prolonged heavy rain - like I do.

[Sky Full]

Four more Days of heavy rain for parts of Wales according to the Met Office.  Weather warnings issued now......

Met Office weather warning: Flooding risk as heavy rainfall forecast - Wales Online

WWW.WALESONLINE.CO.UK

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There are four days of weather warnings for rain covering parts of Wales

 

[lynncradick]

Just popped into the model output thread.. there's mutterings about it getting colder for Christmas week   Hope so, got thoroughly soaked walking the dog earlier, mountain top is sodden, virtual lakes in places.. not asking for snow, though that would be wonderful, just some seasonal cold, frosty days.. any thoughts on the likelihood of this?

 

Edited December 16, 2020 by lynncradick

[Pembroke Dangler]

27 minutes ago, lynncradick said:

Just popped into the model output thread.. there's mutterings about it getting colder for Christmas week   Hope so, got thoroughly soaked walking the dog earlier, mountain top is sodden, virtual lakes in places.. not asking for snow, though that would be wonderful, just some seasonal cold, frosty days.. any thoughts on the likelihood of this?

 

It’s looking more likely we could be in for a cold Christmas period with frosty drier conditions but depends on how strong any north/northwesterly wind is off the Irish Sea which could pick up some moisture and give a few places a surprise dusting of snow for the big day itself, to far away for details but similar patterns in the past have brought snow showers in streams off the Irish Sea but at the moment temperatures at 850 may not be cold enough but there’s time for it change. 

[lynncradick]

1 minute ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

It’s looking more likely we could be in for a cold Christmas period with frosty drier conditions but depends on how strong any north/northwesterly wind is off the Irish Sea which could pick up some moisture and give a few places a surprise dusting of snow for the big day itself, to far away for details but similar patterns in the past have brought snow showers in streams off the Irish Sea but at the moment temperatures at 850 may not be cold enough but there’s time for it change. 

Shall keep my fingers crossed then.. thanks for taking the time to reply

[Sky Full]

White Christmas?   GFS and ECM models both show a slight accumulation of snow but not on Christmas Day so much as Boxing Day, and only for the highest ground in Wales, mostly in the north.....

26th December. 6:00pm. Snow depth charts:

GFS     

ECM.   

This is still a long way off in forecasting terms and we will definitely see changes over the coming week but at least some of us are in with a chance at this stage!

[keithlucky]

On 17/12/2020 at 07:47, Sky Full said:

White Christmas?   GFS and ECM models both show a slight accumulation of snow but not on Christmas Day so much as Boxing Day, and only for the highest ground in Wales, mostly in the north.....

26th December. 6:00pm. Snow depth charts:

GFS     

ECM.   

This is still a long way off in forecasting terms and we will definitely see changes over the coming week but at least some of us are in with a chance at this stage!

Amazing model output this morning.Strong north to north west winds providing heavy sleet/snow for xmas day. There after further snow are times.Then there's 28 th blizzard conditions moves in WoW!!!! Ps never seen charts like this in 30 yrs of model watching.

[Sky Full]

1 hour ago, keithlucky said:

Amazing model output this morning.Strong north to north west winds providing heavy sleet/snow for xmas day. There after further snow are times.Then there's 28 th blizzard conditions moves in WoW!!!! Ps never seen charts like this in 30 yrs of model watching.

Looking good!  That should bring Andy Music back for another season...   

[Sky Full]

Over an inch of rain is forecast for my location in just four hours between 12 noon and 4 pm this afternoon.     But there could be worse in store for South Wales and the Beacons.  Just hope everyone avoids flooding over the Christmas period - that would really be adding injury to insult and more injury...

[andymusic]

6 hours ago, Sky Full said:

Looking good!  That should bring Andy Music back for another season...   

I'm lurking in the model thread for the moment - gfs producing some amazing output right now - could be a very cold/snowy xmas into new year

[snefnug]

59 minutes ago, andymusic said:

I'm lurking in the model thread for the moment - gfs producing some amazing output right now - could be a very cold/snowy xmas into new year

If Andymusic is posting, that can only mean.... Eira 

Edited December 18, 2020 by snefnug

[andymusic]

xmas looking cold and frosty with a small chance of the odd flake

26th/27th could see some snow coming into Wales

 

ECM has a major beasterly incoming from around 240hrs onwards

gfs 12z has the easterly into the new year itself

still too early for any real detail really BUT the models are starting to firm up on possible cold scenarios with each run for the next week or two and maybe even beyond that due to a Greenland high. Might well be worth getting your snow shovels at the ready along with your sledges.

Andy from the top of the Graigerhorn lol

[Pembroke Dangler]

9 minutes ago, andymusic said:

xmas looking cold and frosty with a small chance of the odd flake

26th/27th could see some snow coming into Wales

 

ECM has a major beasterly incoming from around 240hrs onwards

gfs 12z has the easterly into the new year itself

still too early for any real detail really BUT the models are starting to firm up on possible cold scenarios with each run for the next week or two and maybe even beyond that due to a Greenland high. Might well be worth getting your snow shovels at the ready along with your sledges.

Andy from the top of the Graigerhorn lol

Yes it’s a great watch on the mod thread at the moment lots of excitement at the prospect of some proper winter weather frosty freezing fog and as you say the chance of a few flakes on the big day itself. But it’s the period after Christmas that’s got my attention possible Greenland High setting up then morphing in to a scandi  leading to a Beasterly for 29th, and all this before a SSW looks to split the tropospheric polar vortex in two which could bring the real winter blast for the rest of winter  

[Sky Full]

46 minutes ago, andymusic said:

xmas looking cold and frosty with a small chance of the odd flake

26th/27th could see some snow coming into Wales

 

ECM has a major beasterly incoming from around 240hrs onwards

gfs 12z has the easterly into the new year itself

still too early for any real detail really BUT the models are starting to firm up on possible cold scenarios with each run for the next week or two and maybe even beyond that due to a Greenland high. Might well be worth getting your snow shovels at the ready along with your sledges.

Andy from the top of the Graigerhorn lol

Now I know it’s WINTER!!  

[Sky Full]

Torrential rain here again, yesterday and overnight.  There will be local flooding in places this morning for sure, with more rain and showers predicted for today.  River levels are already high and the ground saturated.  We could certainly do with a nice cold, dry spell with or without snow, over Christmas to let the river levels go down.  The forecast for Christmas Day looks fairly dry at the moment but there is more unsettled weather to come before the New Year.