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Steady rain falling again this morning.  I can't remember the last time we managed to string two completely dry days together one after the other and I can't wait for a really strong winter high pressure to set up over the UK.  A week of dry, sunny, crisp days would be really welcome in the run-up to Christmas.  Not much sign of this happening though.....

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Looking good for team wales today / this eve- Have fun !!

Dyma rai o'm lluniau gaeafol (Dydd Mawrth - Wythnos diwethaf) Here are some of my wintry scenes from Tuesday, last week Lleoliad/ Location: Blaenau Clwyd 230masl  (Between Corwen and Rhuthun)

Fair dooz to Torfaen council. They've initiated their red warning plan. I've just received the survival package.

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Still raining here.  Went to Haverfordwest earlier and it was raining there too......couldn't find anyone selling umbrellas though???    Must have been raining for about 48 hours non-stop by now.  The roads are very wet.  Am now looking forward to the colder, dryer, sunnier weather we are expecting in early December.......

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On 18/11/2019 at 22:05, keithlucky said:

Major strat warming taking effect early Dec across Arctic region causing northern blocking ,Further  updates to follow.Wave one is the highest recorded for 40yrs fascinating watching.

nasa-w1.jpg.ba43a2d526e8139c1d2c82ebc284bffb-1.jpg

First phase hits the UK Thursday Friday with some Hard Frosts around,then UP builds in  from  the west Second Attack from the North around the 5th of December,Plenty of snow in a unstable airflow ,we're the Hp sets up is vital but central Europe will be blanketed in snow ,Futher ahead a Scandinavian ,.HP,starts to influence our weather.is looking a good bet.

Edited by keithlucky
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Yay!  Lovely bright sunny morning today!  Is this a taste of next weeks weather?  Unfortunately there is more rain in the forecast before the weekend.....but colder and sunnier for at least a few days to start December.

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Strong winds for many of us over the weekend peaking on Sunday evening.  This image from the ICON model shows the maximum gusts between 6:00pm and midnight:

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We haven't had that many storms this Autumn but 60-70mph gusts could be widely felt in coastal areas from this one.  Make sure you get the cat in.

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Also quite wet especially over the higher ground in central Wales.  ECM and UKMO in agreement over accumulating rainfall totals until Monday mid-morning:

image.thumb.png.bc9b36a62cf657046dc4709c6a0b1450.png   image.thumb.png.0bb0658a37443f6d2d64da292ea4943a.png

Something like 8cm or 9cm rainfall widely over high ground over the next three days combined with gale force winds does not make good weather for Christmas shopping.  Maybe I'll leave it till next weekend......

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A really nasty night, now.  The rain is very heavy and is hammering on the windows in strong gusty westerly winds.  I detest this type of weather and cannot get it out of my head that the roof must be leaking in such conditions.  I won't get much sleep until the rain eases up later tonight.  Then we can look forward to even stronger gales tomorrow evening and overnight as 'Storm Atiyah' romps up.  Lovely. 

Edited by Sky Full
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1 minute ago, Sky Full said:

A really nasty night, now.  The rain is very heavy and is hammering on the windows in strong gusty westerly winds.  I detest this type of weather and cannot get it out of my head that the roof must be leaking in such conditions.  I won't get much sleep until the rain eases up later tonight.  Then we can look forward to even stronger gales as 'Storm Atiyia' arrives tomorrow evening and overnight.  Lovely. 

Yep...wasn't expecting it to be so rough until tomorrow. 50-60 mph gusts here in NW Snowdonia currently. The wheelie bin has had be restrained!

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Just back from walking Stormie Normie up on the tops strong cold winds and wee bit of wintry showers up there, hail on the way down and wet here, so warmed up with milky coffee with a drop of Captain Morgan’s spiced rum....  just the job.  

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Yes, it's been a fairly quiet day here too....a reasonable amount of sunshine in the day and just breezy conditions with an hour of rain earlier.  The strongest winds are expected between 1:00am and 4:00am in the morning during which time I hope to be fast asleep!  The wind is getting up now though and will continue to increase over the next few hours.  Have to put all the recycling bags and boxes out first thing tomorrow so I hope the wind will have dropped by then or all the rubbish is going to disappear down the road! 

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Didn't manage to sleep through the storm after all - the wind woke me up around 1:00am and it was quite noisy so I had to get up and check that there was no damage.  All OK and no power cuts either so not as bad as it sounded, maybe.  Much quieter now although still breezy but brightening up.  Quite a lot of rain to get through this week, apparently, so it's fingers crossed for a change to more wintery weather before Christmas!

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4 hours ago, Sky Full said:

Didn't manage to sleep through the storm after all - the wind woke me up around 1:00am and it was quite noisy so I had to get up and check that there was no damage.  All OK and no power cuts either so not as bad as it sounded, maybe.  Much quieter now although still breezy but brightening up.  Quite a lot of rain to get through this week, apparently, so it's fingers crossed for a change to more wintery weather before Christmas!

I was up for most of the early hours and at three separate occasions through the night I saw flashes in three different areas in the distance. So unless it was lightning some areas must have had power problems.

I enjoyed it quite a lot though as there wasn't much rain with this system like we often get which makes it less enjoyable.

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Went up to Cardigan earlier and apart from the usual light scattering of debris on the road which is normal after gales I saw a very large mature conifer (cypress, I think) which had been completely split down the middle by the wind.  This had been a big tree and the fallen part was as large as the part still standing.  Luckily it had fallen parallel with the road  or the A478 would have been completely blocked this morning.  Lots of lovely logs to be had if someone wanted to get busy with a chainsaw....  No doubt similar scenes were witnessed in many other places in the west today.

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Woke up to a dark, gloomy morning, heavy overcast and moderate continuous rain.  Not a day for working outside, it would seem.  Rain in the forecast every day this week although Friday looks like being a reasonable day.  Come on then, let's get all this rain out of the way before Christmas so we can enjoy a spell of cold, sunny, frosty weather at the end of the month. What are the chances??

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A watching brief for Sunday. Snow indicated on a number of GFS runs on the northern flank of a small low zipping west to east through Wales. 

Positioning varies, most favoured might be North Wales, but may well position further south. 

1) ICON 6z shows south wales snow potential with perhaps a more upland emphasis. 

2) Arpege showing a northern event, with an earlier start time and perhaps again an more upland focus. 

3) GFS 6z showing some consistency with the 0z run

4) GFS 0z "Snow Chart" from Netweather showing not just an upland snow event for most of wales, but many areas above c. 350ft would likely see at least falling snow.

It will change in the next few days, but I'm watching this more closely now as it moves towards a *slightly* more reliable timeframe! Fingers crossed it doesn't disappear! 

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Edited by Selliso
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