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Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

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Its been a wet day here today.  Very wet.  The rain started first thing and got gradually heavier all day.  It's still pouring down now.  The poor dog could hardly stay outside for more than a few minutes before rushing back inside again.  

Noticed a leak in one of our ceilings earlier. Could do without that really.  On the plus side, the pond doesn't need any toppling up.....    Will be nice to have a little respite tomorrow before another drenching on Monday.  

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Just had an extremely potent shower pass through here - the latest of many smaller showers today.  Torrential rain, very dark, red/orange tinged skies, and finished off with a lovely crack of thunder which rumbled around the valley for several seconds.  The lane is drenched and running with water so I'm glad it's passed over quite quickly.  The clouds are taking  on some lovely colours now and there are still some towering shower formations on the horizon.  Quite an interesting day weather wise.

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What a miserable, wet start to the day it is.  Horizontal, heavy rain being blown across by a strong south westerly straight off the Atlantic, shaking the trees and testing the roof.  Cloud cover is almost down to our level bringing visibility down to about half a mile or less.  It feels cold, too, and we've had to put the heating on again.  Not a day to go out unless you have to.  Not much sign of any change in these conditions for the foreseeable future, either.  If this is what the Autumn is going to be like, roll on Winter please.

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Misty murky morning after all the weekend rain.  A refreshing (ermmm chilly) morning in the valley.  Still beautiful though.  

2C4EA99B-D1DA-4D93-BC0B-4D4384D0617C.jpeg

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A lovely sunny calm day here today for a change!   I managed to get some spring bulbs planted - a bit late but its been too wet before now.  More unsettled weather to come but hopefully a respite towards the end of the month.  Fingers crossed then. 

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Today we have enjoyed a string of very heavy showers all morning coming one after the other.  Must be accumulating a good few millimetres by now.  Some beautiful cloud formations at times, though - really towering cumulus fringed by sunlit sky.

Edited by Sky Full

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Had quite a few thundery showers thismorning, one with a lightening strike right behind my house, so bright and loud, closest I've ever been to a strike and don't want to get that close again haha! Some intense rain and hail too which was nice. Not had much thundery activity by me this year so was nice surprise.

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I can confirm that the forecasts and warnings are correct - heavy persistent rain since first thing morning here must be racking up the total to severe levels in some parts by now.  Accompanied by gusty winds and 100% overcast, this is a day to forget unless you're a duck, maybe.  Predicted to continue until tomorrow afternoon, and I shall definitely be staying in.

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Top of the snowdonia railway today

1000M ASL !

Good covering there I imagine the snowline was >800M

3964A9C8-0464-4D04-A4C3-2F7E6D693F7B.thumb.jpeg.9213b1e1f42388c4a15bbd5a5b0f41a9.jpeg

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Had the pleasure of running in the chepstow stampede 10k today. The ground cannot take anymore rain..I may have been better of going for swim and might have finished drier. Here's looking forward to a nice couple of cool bright days and chilly nights!

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Met Office is showing yellow warnings for rain (south and west Wales) and wind (south Wales - mainly coastal areas) for tomorrow.  Here are some indications of the rainfall total expected over the weekend and maximum wind gusts, from the ECM, GFS, ICON and ARPEGE:

RAINFALL TOTAL FOR NEXT48 HOURS:

   ECM   :-                                                           ICON  :-

 502357128_GFSaccumrainfall.thumb.png.66caf9f33b9243281d7627bd6552f830.png     342885724_ICONaccumrainfall.thumb.png.7a5311345ba2abacc35ed9a651806635.png

   ARPEGE  :-

 1840774140_ARPEGEaccumrainfall.thumb.png.687d473980e9c6c90d7b8f590179b675.png

 

MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS (gusts) AT 10:00am Saturday morning:

  GFS                                                                  ICON

1837994002_GFSgusts10amSat.thumb.png.650843e0316185cbe4898abf73cb0df9.png      1927808155_ICONgusts10amSat.thumb.png.7a8ab5d3c2833073356fb6838decac3d.png

ARPEGE

238259212_ARPEGEgusts10amSat.thumb.png.0818bbd39c4985b4bddc0457b51df8b4.png

They don't all agree on the details but it's fair to say it will be wet and windy tomorrow especially on west and south facing coasts of Wales..... 

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It feels a little strange here right now - no wind or rain and a circle of blue sky directly over head.  Looking at the pressure chart:

image.thumb.png.41cd4ddd26a2b628d520c847dc02aa8c.png

.....it seems that the centre of the depression is directly over us at the moment and there is no sign of the 50mm+  rain forecast for this location or the 50mph+ wind gusts.   Probably the nearest I'll ever come to being 'in the eye of a storm'!    No doubt the conditions will worsen quickly as the depression scoots off towards the east.....

EDIT:  Now the forecast is for 40mph+ gusts and 40mm rain here - so something of a downgrade that I'm not unhappy to see....

Edited by Sky Full

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Plus 1 to that Sky full at 7am here on the coast there wasn't a breath of wind in my garden and I also saw the odd glimmer of blue sky. The local weather station (approx 2 miles from my house) recorded a min pressure of 969mb.... It's currently rising slowly as it's now 972.4mb. 

I'm now uptown a slight breeze in the garden. 

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I think we've dodged the worst of this one.  It seems set to affect the south coast of England mainly with south Wales being on the northern edge of the depression so not in the path of the highest winds.  Its quite pleasant here right now with watery sunshine and only a light breeze.  If only it would stay like this! 

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Glorious day today,  chilly start, sunny bits and the brightest of blue sky for a while, trees look wonderful, fungi are abundant although I don’t know enough to pick any of them.  

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No expert but there seems to be something brewing in the model thread...not getting excited though...too many disappointments in the past ❄❄

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On 04/11/2019 at 18:33, dbaloo said:

No expert but there seems to be something brewing in the model thread...not getting excited though...too many disappointments in the past ❄❄

Cold late Autumn weather look on the cards.Records are falling in Canada has almost entire snow cover .earliest complete covering since Gfs records began.Central and eastern USA will have a severe cold plunge next week with further records being broken.ROAR on Dalton minimum.!

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Heavy snow for parts of N wales tomorrow-

Especially over elevation 2/300M

Maybe as much as 10cm

3389279E-89CB-4564-A4AA-E39BFE0255D1.thumb.png.15153d538704f0fc45912d3ca8d85b7d.png

 

 

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Yes - here is a chart from the ECM showing predicted total accumulated snow depth up to Saturday 6:00pm....

image.thumb.png.a8275b972098a13bd683849908b91efb.png

Snowdonia and other high ground in mid-Wales could see their first significant snow this winter.  It has to be said that other models are showing much smaller amounts of snow so it remains to be seen whether this is an accurate forecast.  

In the meantime it's a beautiful cloudless sunny morning here which is a pleasant change from the many rainy days we have had recently.  My thoughts are with those in the Midlands and North of England who have had torrential rain in the last 24 hours and are now having to deal with floods - again.  It certainly seems to have been a wetter than average Autumn this year in many places.

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Big fat snowflakes falling in Rhayader at the moment, settling nicely at -0.5.

15732876557391956551652.jpg

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Its 2.7C and cold rain here thismorning, not my favourite weather by far but nice to see the first snowfalls across some areas already. Gives me a little hope for the winter after last year being pretty boring snow wise here for the most part. 

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Heavy wet snow / occasional sleet mIx falling in Trefriw, Conwy. 
looking up the valley, clear snow line at c. 400-500ft. 

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