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Well, it was dry today for a change, but we have had a strong, cold north westerly wind blowing making it pretty unpleasant to go outside.  Looks like being a nice evening though.  I'm not a fan of snow at this time of year so I hope the prayers of the snow-mad brigade are not answered.  What we need now is sunshine and less rain please.... (which is almost as difficult as getting snow in my part of the world!).

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Looking good for team wales today / this eve- Have fun !!

Dyma rai o'm lluniau gaeafol (Dydd Mawrth - Wythnos diwethaf) Here are some of my wintry scenes from Tuesday, last week Lleoliad/ Location: Blaenau Clwyd 230masl  (Between Corwen and Rhuthun)

Fair dooz to Torfaen council. They've initiated their red warning plan. I've just received the survival package.

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Oh dear.  Here we go again..... There is potential for a significant storm on Sunday and the most pessimistic model on this subject is the Arpege.  These are the possible wind speed charts for Sunday afternoon:

.                      Wind direction and average speed:.       Maximum gusts over a 3 hour period:

12:00 noon  image.thumb.png.29d2fa8c04c706a7f2b226da953c5dc9.png  image.thumb.png.e86feed8476f823f9779537e592bca22.png

03:00 pm     image.thumb.png.ed956c95a6f17996ee909cae83f427c9.png  image.thumb.png.593ec7bc83b319876c1572167010b5eb.png

06:00 pm.    image.thumb.png.b4cdcfe8a93dfcfe98a51898770555c6.pngimage.thumb.png.de0ecbf5da69dd86f7490c2ff7a9cb2d.png

144kmh is 90mph.  There is still time for this to moderate or even disappear off the charts but I expect a weather warning for high winds will be issued sometime before midday tomorrow.

 

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3 hours ago, Sky Full said:

Oh dear.  Here we go again..... There is potential for a significant storm on Sunday and the most pessimistic model on this subject is the Arpege.  These are the possible wind speed charts for Sunday afternoon:

.                      Wind direction and average speed:.       Maximum gusts over a 3 hour period:

12:00 noon  image.thumb.png.29d2fa8c04c706a7f2b226da953c5dc9.png  image.thumb.png.e86feed8476f823f9779537e592bca22.png

03:00 pm     image.thumb.png.ed956c95a6f17996ee909cae83f427c9.png  image.thumb.png.593ec7bc83b319876c1572167010b5eb.png

06:00 pm.    image.thumb.png.b4cdcfe8a93dfcfe98a51898770555c6.pngimage.thumb.png.de0ecbf5da69dd86f7490c2ff7a9cb2d.png

144kmh is 90mph.  There is still time for this to moderate or even disappear off the charts but I expect a weather warning for high winds will be issued sometime before midday tomorrow.

 

Yes stormy weather Sunday with blizzard conditions  at times(6cms possible over the higher ground)'again repeat on Tuesday.Looks like this weather theme continues over the  next few weeks with snow still possible .

 

 

 

 

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Definitely looking unsettled but as the day progresses there is little evidence of this possible storm on other models so either the Arpege is completely wrong or the other models need to catch up.....!   

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33 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Definitely looking unsettled but as the day progresses there is little evidence of this possible storm on other models so either the Arpege is completely wrong or the other models need to catch up.....!   

Probably Wrong As I tend to find the Arpege model always over predicts the winds compared to the others.

Many times in the past the Arpege model would show 70-80mph gusts with the others just 40-60mph and 40-60mph would more often than not be what we got.

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4 hours ago, wimblettben said:

Probably Wrong As I tend to find the Arpege model always over predicts the winds compared to the others.

Many times in the past the Arpege model would show 70-80mph gusts with the others just 40-60mph and 40-60mph would more often than not be what we got.

I agree and as things stand we might only expect strong winds at times but not stormy.  It's still difficult for me to understand how a supposedly sophisticated computer model could get things so wrong at just 48 hours away - you would think they would all be in agreement by this point....

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2 hours ago, Sky Full said:

I agree and as things stand we might only expect strong winds at times but not stormy.  It's still difficult for me to understand how a supposedly sophisticated computer model could get things so wrong at just 48 hours away - you would think they would all be in agreement by this point....

It's not so much the The wind speed ,but a very fast gulf stream{240mph) ,with -8uppers expect to see some snow Across Wales Snow over high ground over North Wales especially.

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Strong winds forecast to hit Wales Tuesday with heavy rain with gusts reaching 60mph,Followed by heavy wintry showers with dew points falling rapidly in the showers brief snow covering cannot be ruled out anywere across Wales.Don't we just love the spring!

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Heavy rain here now with a strong, driving wind so the rain is hammering against the roof and windows.  Oh well.  Hopefully it will pass by tomorrow....  Definitely looking for every little sign of Spring now - preferably with an early reduction in the number of stormy lows so we can lose the wind and rain for a couple of weeks.

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As if we haven't had enough already, it's going to be a very wet and windy weekend....  Here are a couple of charts from the GFS showing total accumulated rainfall expected by Saturday midnight and maximum wind gusts for three hours from 2:00pm Saturday....

image.thumb.png.5046d856bc3238e1fb0adacb7c966299.png   image.thumb.png.e10a66dd36609e6d24f411f9b36f8bb1.png

That's 6 or 7cms of rain quite widely and 50mph gusts well inland on Saturday afternoon - higher on the coasts.  The goods news is that Sunday is expected to be a better day with winds dropping and the rain should have passed through - it might be quite a nice day!  The rest of next week also expected to be quieter and drier with much lighter winds and generally higher temperatures - so maybe a little more like Spring!

 

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Back again this morning for your enjoyment and entertainment, that good old favourite (not) -  SIDEWAYS RAIN!   Yes - its coming down (sideways) hard this morning and it's at times like this I'm grateful to the inventor of double-glazed windows and doors.  Mind you, I'm not so confident about the roof which is groaning under the strength of the wind....  I have just witnessed a poor defenceless blackbird being literally blown off its feet outside - it had to jump (not fly) into a hedge to avoid further humiliation.  Nature can be cruel..... 

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Rain and wind beginning to ease off here, now.  I see its still coming down in Cardiff though.  Bet the Irish wish they'd not asked for the roof to be left open on the stadium, after all......

Looking forward to some calmer and drier weather over the next few days - we need to dry out here now!

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15 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Rain and wind beginning to ease off here, now.  I see its still coming down in Cardiff though.  Bet the Irish wish they'd not asked for the roof to be left open on the stadium, after all......

Looking forward to some calmer and drier weather over the next few days - we need to dry out here now!

Blowing hoolie here torrential rain and winds....and wales won......

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Walking Stormy Norm on tops this pm, sleety rain on us, snow blizzard on mountain to my east, blue sky and sun toward Llanarmon, then all turned towinty showers.  Meanwhile in the Glyn, rain.

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Showers they said...   What showers?  I recognise continuous rain when I see it, and it's persistently raining here - has been since before 6:00am.  100% overcast and wet.  Must admit, this is not what I was expecting.  I will have to learn how to read those charts better.  Still, at least the wind has dropped.  Maybe the rain will ease up later. Or tomorrow.  Or maybe at the end of the week.  Who knows?  

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On 18/03/2019 at 10:10, Sky Full said:

Showers they said...   What showers?  I recognise continuous rain when I see it, and it's persistently raining here - has been since before 6:00am.  100% overcast and wet.  Must admit, this is not what I was expecting.  I will have to learn how to read those charts better.  Still, at least the wind has dropped.  Maybe the rain will ease up later. Or tomorrow.  Or maybe at the end of the week.  Who knows?  

Not what I was expecting either!

Just started raining here again this afternoon and its now Tuesday.

Guess Wales isn't getting much luck with this settled warm spell, and it does need to dry out for a bit here as everything is completely soaked.

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It's been a cloudy, dreary, damp week here this week with 100% overcast and rain or drizzle most days.  Had to travel to Cardiff on Tuesday where it was bright and even sunny, but driving back the clouds increased and by the time I was nearly home it was pretty foggy.  Fog hung around most of Wednesday but only low clouds yesterday and today.   Mustn't complain though because I would take even this weather over the damaging storms we had previously!   It must be our turn to see some sunshine soon and the signs are promising for next week - after another band of rain moves through tonight that is!

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