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Looking good for team wales today / this eve- Have fun !!

Some photos from this morning up on the Rhigos between Hirwaun and Treherbert. Here we are around 480-500m asl  it was stunning with amazing views over the Brecon Beacons and beyond. The mountain

Fair dooz to Torfaen council. They've initiated their red warning plan. I've just received the survival package.

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2 minutes ago, Loadsa2000 said:

Be interesting to see how this pans out, Met have me down for heavy snow, while the BBC has me down for light snow over the same time scale. So how to work out who is right if it snows, what they class as light and heavy

But the BBC site looks like it was updated recently as it was broadly similar to the Meto last night whilst the Met's hasn't changed at all in the last 24hrs - who do we have most faith in? - Actually thinking on it I have more trust in Andy than either of them 

Edited by Stevetynant
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This is the Met Office's hourly-updated forecast for Treharris in the central Valleys, my closest available forecast location. Heavy snow for most of the afternoon and evening. As always, there's some variation in hour-by-hour forecasts and the BBC's output is likely to switch back to heavy snow at some point this morning. In other words, don't take them literally or even too seriously.

470101403_Screenshot2019-01-31at08_35_31.thumb.png.89277a5d90b0f52c7b777aa8b88e63f8.png

Edited by Jackfrost
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1 minute ago, Jackfrost said:

This is the Met Office's hourly-updated forecast for Treharris in the central Valleys. Heavy snow for most of the afternoon and evening. As always, there's some variation in hour-by-hour forecasts and the BBC's output is likely to switch back to heavy snow at some point this morning. In other words, don't take them literally or even too seriously.

470101403_Screenshot2019-01-31at08_35_31.thumb.png.89277a5d90b0f52c7b777aa8b88e63f8.png

I agree but two trusted organisations can be so different at less than 12 hours

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8 minutes ago, Loadsa2000 said:

I agree but two trusted organisations can be so different at less than 12 hours

It's mostly algorithms and data rather than human input which create the hourly location forecasts, which is why there's so much divergence both between the BBC and Met Office and between locations and which is why I have more faith in what expert forecasters have to say (despite that being an unpopular view amongst some here!) There are differences in the output for Mountain Ash, Treharris, Ystrad Mynach and Bargoed, for example, despite them being so close to each other that any differences are going to be negligible to non-existent.

Edited by Jackfrost
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Temp up to 1.5C already, don't really want it to rise any further although I know it will probably go quite a bit higher yet, so maybe sleet here to start before the snow? Forecasts have been saying it's likely to do that! It is exciting though!

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1 minute ago, Bartlett High said:

Still no amber alert though! 

Going off past MetOffice warnings, although they can be issued anytime, they have a tendency to be issued between 10 and 11am.

therefore be interesting to see anything during that time. 

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6 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

Still no amber alert though! 

10-15 cm is 10-15 cm, regardless of whether the warning is amber or yellow! Still, I'm around 70% confident an amber warning will go out this morning for Southeast Wales and the southern part of Mid Wales.

Edited by Jackfrost
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Pembrokeshire could be the place today.

If it does turn to snow there, higher areas in Pembrokeshire could actually see the highest totals today.

latest ICON has the highest precip totals and most intense precipitation there around 17:00.

Latest Icon shows second line of precip (although lighter) then moving into South Wales early hours of Friday.

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