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-5c here and icicles and Jack Frost swirls outside and ice inside ancient windows.   A day for the thermal jeans, winter woolly wellie socks and all my knitted jumpers, scarves, hats  and gloves and prospect of some snow tonight.  ?❄️❄️?❤️

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Looking good for team wales today / this eve- Have fun !!

Some photos from this morning up on the Rhigos between Hirwaun and Treherbert. Here we are around 480-500m asl  it was stunning with amazing views over the Brecon Beacons and beyond. The mountain

Fair dooz to Torfaen council. They've initiated their red warning plan. I've just received the survival package.

Posted Images

Comparison this morning.

ECMWF - bank, snows most of the night too.

50FBBCFC-E24F-4919-B8F2-8624D8968EDA.thumb.png.464790acc2e1f3caa10df7201528efac.png

ICON - Not as good as previous runs as precip amounts have decreased quite a bit but still ok, particularly in south east and Pembrokeshire 

CFC05874-D3A0-4AAC-B0B4-B102116FF7B1.thumb.png.738c6b0890ca81ccdf54302e48f1ff6a.png

Arpege - Front completely loses intensity. Light snowfall only and possibly only rain or sleet in southern coastal low lying areas. Worst run so far.

9B5AE7DE-7627-4297-8208-8C06EA9AE980.thumb.png.e5b040da43ba4b7dab53be38525fa942.png

HIRLAM - still maintains intensity on the whole, particularly in the south east.

B42E2563-4E46-4242-8418-3105F3DA1F53.thumb.png.b0ed325ce27d7d48fa03069a9b635bdb.png

EURO4 - maintains the front intensity. Perhaps rain or sleet on the coast. 

5A48E434-E1EF-4E67-AF1A-9C4B2A15B9E1.thumb.gif.e12f7810e73225992ed2e13cabbc162c.gif

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I'm not concerned about this. There's always some natural variation between both the model output and various TV forecast graphics. Frankly, unless and until the Met Office, BBC or any of the main forecasters for our region (i.e. Derek and Fergie) dramatically change their tune, I don't think there's any reason to panic. Not to be dismissive of ITV's weather department, but as with C4 and C5, they've never been held in as high regard as the BBC or Met Office.

We've been here plenty of times in the past; the Mar. 2018, Dec. 2017 and Jan. 2013 events jump immediately to mind. Frankly, we spend so long chasing a significant snow event and when they finally are on the brink of materialising, I suspect we become doubtful because we subconsciously can't believe it's actually happening.

Edited by Jackfrost
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2 minutes ago, PompeyFC said:

Looking at the radar the angle of attack looks good as it's approaching us now. Soon see if it loses intensity when it hits land and cold air

Current temp 4 degrees wind direction ESE 8-14km/ph .... cloudy ...feels like rain here ?

Net weather says rain/sleet , Meto says snow .  For me it’s a massive difference and a high financial cost if I start feeding animals for the feed to be wasted as our grass is plentiful. A hot summer meant less fodder produced ( we are organic ad it’s hard to source anything but our own locally )  Last year in March it got so bad so quickly it wasn’t safe to move the girls for fear of limb breakages but at least they had shelter and plenty of fodder . 

I can’t get any closer to the sea where I am . 

Should I put bales out regardless ?

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1 minute ago, Penfoel said:

Current temp 4 degrees wind direction ESE 8-14km/ph .... cloudy ...feels like rain here ?

Net weather says rain/sleet , Meto says snow .  For me it’s a massive difference and a high financial cost if I start feeding animals for the feed to be wasted as our grass is plentiful. A hot summer meant less fodder produced ( we are organic ad it’s hard to source anything but our own locally )  Last year in March it got so bad so quickly it wasn’t safe to move the girls for fear of limb breakages but at least they had shelter and plenty of fodder . 

I can’t get any closer to the sea where I am . 

Should I put bales out regardless ?

It really does seem like a nowcast today. A real tricky forecast.

where abouts on the coast are you?

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The reason No Amber Warning yet, is the likelihood for any particular localised area.

Today a Amber is very likely, but until now plenty of scope for worst hit area to move North or South

Amber warnings are not just given out like a free gift. They need careful consideration. The Yellow has been waarning the public that snow likely.

If Amber then organisations have plans to follow

Schools may automatically shut

Councils have to set plans

Emergency service plans like Police will be initiated

So an Amber has very signifigant implications  that most people never know about.

Nothing has changed and the forecast is close to as forecast, maybe slightly South so Coastal areas  seeing snow later too

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Looks very heavy in the southwest with lightning strikes off the sw coast. I think this band is going to fragment a lot and struggle to make it further than the north midlands. If a amber is issued its going to be a very small area and focused on the brecon beacons 

 

Edited by Marcus_surfer
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3 minutes ago, Penfoel said:

Strumble Head ?

Lovely. Although you are right on the coast the wind will be offshore today which is good for snow. (ESE/E wind). 

I would keep an eye on the radar as it spreads north. MetOffice Euro4 model has widespread accumulations Central and North Pembrokeshire by late afternoon/evening. (5-10cm)

Not too sure myself, too many models are showing different scenarios. Next update to models around 9.30/10.

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Just now, Marcus_surfer said:

Looks very heavy in the southwest with lightning strikes off the sw coast. I think this band is going to fragment a lot and struggle to make it further than the north midlands. If a amber is issued its going to be a very small area and focused on the brecon beacons 

Unknown

Yes some heavy stuff just behind the front but looking at it the front looks wide and shouldn’t loose to much intensity so fingers crossed 

EE86750C-4E1A-46F2-AF13-3222F972C975.png

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6 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

Yes some heavy stuff just behind the front but looking at it the front looks wide and shouldn’t loose to much intensity so fingers crossed 

EE86750C-4E1A-46F2-AF13-3222F972C975.png

The front is guaranteed to lose some of that intensity (in other words, expect those bright reds to be replaced by mostly greens and yellows) because it's running into cold air, and as cold air holds less moisture it'll sap it of some of its intensity, but not enough to avoid disruptive snow in favoured areas. The orientation of it will also change from a NW-SE-aligned system to a W-E angle as it hits the cold block and is unable to progress further, and it's in this position that it'll begin to fizzle out tomorrow. 

Edited by Jackfrost
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6 minutes ago, Stevetynant said:

BBC Changed from Heavy snow all afternoon to light snow - but on the bright side still hopeful my Amazon Packages will still get through

image.thumb.png.5779dffdc904e77dcdc4f13ec8ba005e.png

So it's gone the way of the pear Steve?

John

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2 minutes ago, CRACKPOT said:

So it's gone the way of the pear Steve?

John

depends who you believe John I think, what it does do is question my confidence in any of the models where things can change so much within 12 hours - Mod thread are seeing a tentative sign of extreme cold from about the 9/10 Feb - so perhaps winter won't end this weekend after all if you have any faith in them that is lol

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