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Posted
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, good sun at other times with appropriate rain.
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL

    -5c here and icicles and Jack Frost swirls outside and ice inside ancient windows.   A day for the thermal jeans, winter woolly wellie socks and all my knitted jumpers, scarves, hats  and gloves and prospect of some snow tonight.  ?❄️❄️?❤️

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    Looking good for team wales today / this eve- Have fun !!

    Dyma rai o'm lluniau gaeafol (Dydd Mawrth - Wythnos diwethaf) Here are some of my wintry scenes from Tuesday, last week Lleoliad/ Location: Blaenau Clwyd 230masl  (Between Corwen and Rhuthun)

    Some photos from this morning up on the Rhigos between Hirwaun and Treherbert. Here we are around 480-500m asl  it was stunning with amazing views over the Brecon Beacons and beyond. The mountain

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

    Comparison this morning.

    ECMWF - bank, snows most of the night too.

    50FBBCFC-E24F-4919-B8F2-8624D8968EDA.thumb.png.464790acc2e1f3caa10df7201528efac.png

    ICON - Not as good as previous runs as precip amounts have decreased quite a bit but still ok, particularly in south east and Pembrokeshire 

    CFC05874-D3A0-4AAC-B0B4-B102116FF7B1.thumb.png.738c6b0890ca81ccdf54302e48f1ff6a.png

    Arpege - Front completely loses intensity. Light snowfall only and possibly only rain or sleet in southern coastal low lying areas. Worst run so far.

    9B5AE7DE-7627-4297-8208-8C06EA9AE980.thumb.png.e5b040da43ba4b7dab53be38525fa942.png

    HIRLAM - still maintains intensity on the whole, particularly in the south east.

    B42E2563-4E46-4242-8418-3105F3DA1F53.thumb.png.b0ed325ce27d7d48fa03069a9b635bdb.png

    EURO4 - maintains the front intensity. Perhaps rain or sleet on the coast. 

    5A48E434-E1EF-4E67-AF1A-9C4B2A15B9E1.thumb.gif.e12f7810e73225992ed2e13cabbc162c.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: blackwood south wales 179m asl
  • Location: blackwood south wales 179m asl

    Oh no,I’m starting to panic,there seems to be a lot of uncertainty,we are nearly there,it can’t possibly change now...can it? ??

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    Posted
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales

    Looking at the radar the angle of attack looks good as it's approaching us now. Soon see if it loses intensity when it hits land and cold air

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    Posted
  • Location: Nantymoel (asl 268m)or 879ft
  • Location: Nantymoel (asl 268m)or 879ft

    Just watched ITV weather and to my view, shows snow coming in about 1 to wales but didnt look thick, seemed to be breaking up at times and not as strong as yesterday's  snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales

    It’s not far off Pembroke dock and further west it’s hitting Dublin nearly (scratches head) ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Nelson, Caerphilly, South Wales. 175m ASL
  • Location: Nelson, Caerphilly, South Wales. 175m ASL

    I'm not concerned about this. There's always some natural variation between both the model output and various TV forecast graphics. Frankly, unless and until the Met Office, BBC or any of the main forecasters for our region (i.e. Derek and Fergie) dramatically change their tune, I don't think there's any reason to panic. Not to be dismissive of ITV's weather department, but as with C4 and C5, they've never been held in as high regard as the BBC or Met Office.

    We've been here plenty of times in the past; the Mar. 2018, Dec. 2017 and Jan. 2013 events jump immediately to mind. Frankly, we spend so long chasing a significant snow event and when they finally are on the brink of materialising, I suspect we become doubtful because we subconsciously can't believe it's actually happening.

    Edited by Jackfrost
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    Posted
  • Location: wales,heads of the valley 1100ft asl
  • Location: wales,heads of the valley 1100ft asl

    Definitely looks more fragmented (the low)than on yesterday's charts and a tad further north. Maybe there was a good reason the Meto never went to an amber warning after all. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

    Metoffice UKV for 8am - looks not far off

    0AC0160D-25E6-4B58-9D69-7472A5864876.thumb.jpeg.0f1d094a4a514405acd71ee609b1eec6.jpeg

    And for 6pm

    148158AA-E421-4D53-B33B-B1BABACEBDE8.thumb.jpeg.3d36f93bfae6d5dcbb0ca474d9e4af53.jpeg

    Urgh.

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    Posted
  • Location: Strumble Head Pembrokeshire 60m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and hot sun
  • Location: Strumble Head Pembrokeshire 60m asl
    2 minutes ago, PompeyFC said:

    Looking at the radar the angle of attack looks good as it's approaching us now. Soon see if it loses intensity when it hits land and cold air

    Current temp 4 degrees wind direction ESE 8-14km/ph .... cloudy ...feels like rain here ?

    Net weather says rain/sleet , Meto says snow .  For me it’s a massive difference and a high financial cost if I start feeding animals for the feed to be wasted as our grass is plentiful. A hot summer meant less fodder produced ( we are organic ad it’s hard to source anything but our own locally )  Last year in March it got so bad so quickly it wasn’t safe to move the girls for fear of limb breakages but at least they had shelter and plenty of fodder . 

    I can’t get any closer to the sea where I am . 

    Should I put bales out regardless ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
    1 minute ago, Penfoel said:

    Current temp 4 degrees wind direction ESE 8-14km/ph .... cloudy ...feels like rain here ?

    Net weather says rain/sleet , Meto says snow .  For me it’s a massive difference and a high financial cost if I start feeding animals for the feed to be wasted as our grass is plentiful. A hot summer meant less fodder produced ( we are organic ad it’s hard to source anything but our own locally )  Last year in March it got so bad so quickly it wasn’t safe to move the girls for fear of limb breakages but at least they had shelter and plenty of fodder . 

    I can’t get any closer to the sea where I am . 

    Should I put bales out regardless ?

    It really does seem like a nowcast today. A real tricky forecast.

    where abouts on the coast are you?

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    Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF

    The reason No Amber Warning yet, is the likelihood for any particular localised area.

    Today a Amber is very likely, but until now plenty of scope for worst hit area to move North or South

    Amber warnings are not just given out like a free gift. They need careful consideration. The Yellow has been waarning the public that snow likely.

    If Amber then organisations have plans to follow

    Schools may automatically shut

    Councils have to set plans

    Emergency service plans like Police will be initiated

    So an Amber has very signifigant implications  that most people never know about.

    Nothing has changed and the forecast is close to as forecast, maybe slightly South so Coastal areas  seeing snow later too

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    Posted
  • Location: Strumble Head Pembrokeshire 60m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and hot sun
  • Location: Strumble Head Pembrokeshire 60m asl
    1 minute ago, bradythemole said:

    It really does seem like a nowcast today. A real tricky forecast.

    where abouts on the coast are you?

    Strumble Head ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL

    Looks very heavy in the southwest with lightning strikes off the sw coast. I think this band is going to fragment a lot and struggle to make it further than the north midlands. If a amber is issued its going to be a very small area and focused on the brecon beacons 

     

    Edited by Marcus_surfer
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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
    3 minutes ago, Penfoel said:

    Strumble Head ?

    Lovely. Although you are right on the coast the wind will be offshore today which is good for snow. (ESE/E wind). 

    I would keep an eye on the radar as it spreads north. MetOffice Euro4 model has widespread accumulations Central and North Pembrokeshire by late afternoon/evening. (5-10cm)

    Not too sure myself, too many models are showing different scenarios. Next update to models around 9.30/10.

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
    Just now, Marcus_surfer said:

    Looks very heavy in the southwest with lightning strikes off the sw coast. I think this band is going to fragment a lot and struggle to make it further than the north midlands. If a amber is issued its going to be a very small area and focused on the brecon beacons 

    Unknown

    Yes some heavy stuff just behind the front but looking at it the front looks wide and shouldn’t loose to much intensity so fingers crossed 

    EE86750C-4E1A-46F2-AF13-3222F972C975.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Nelson, Caerphilly, South Wales. 175m ASL
  • Location: Nelson, Caerphilly, South Wales. 175m ASL
    6 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

    Yes some heavy stuff just behind the front but looking at it the front looks wide and shouldn’t loose to much intensity so fingers crossed 

    EE86750C-4E1A-46F2-AF13-3222F972C975.png

    The front is guaranteed to lose some of that intensity (in other words, expect those bright reds to be replaced by mostly greens and yellows) because it's running into cold air, and as cold air holds less moisture it'll sap it of some of its intensity, but not enough to avoid disruptive snow in favoured areas. The orientation of it will also change from a NW-SE-aligned system to a W-E angle as it hits the cold block and is unable to progress further, and it's in this position that it'll begin to fizzle out tomorrow. 

    Edited by Jackfrost
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    Posted
  • Location: Penpedairheol - Rhymney Valley 200m asl
  • Location: Penpedairheol - Rhymney Valley 200m asl

    BBC Changed from Heavy snow all afternoon to light snow - but on the bright side still hopeful my Amazon Packages will still get through

    image.thumb.png.5779dffdc904e77dcdc4f13ec8ba005e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Gilfach, Bargoed, South East Wales Valleys, 190m Asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Ice, Frost, Thunderstorms, Gales
  • Location: Gilfach, Bargoed, South East Wales Valleys, 190m Asl
    6 minutes ago, Stevetynant said:

    BBC Changed from Heavy snow all afternoon to light snow - but on the bright side still hopeful my Amazon Packages will still get through

    image.thumb.png.5779dffdc904e77dcdc4f13ec8ba005e.png

    So it's gone the way of the pear Steve?

    John

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly

    Be interesting to see how this pans out, Met have me down for heavy snow, while the BBC has me down for light snow over the same time scale. So how to work out who is right if it snows, what they class as light and heavy

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    Posted
  • Location: Penpedairheol - Rhymney Valley 200m asl
  • Location: Penpedairheol - Rhymney Valley 200m asl
    2 minutes ago, CRACKPOT said:

    So it's gone the way of the pear Steve?

    John

    depends who you believe John I think, what it does do is question my confidence in any of the models where things can change so much within 12 hours - Mod thread are seeing a tentative sign of extreme cold from about the 9/10 Feb - so perhaps winter won't end this weekend after all if you have any faith in them that is lol

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