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Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion


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5 minutes ago, Jen Beachcomber said:

The clue is under my name James, Pembroke, West Wales coast. Go the very end of the M4 and keep going until you get to the sea. I live on the edge of town and approx (as the crow flies) 3 miles from the coast x

I can't see I'm on my iPhone ?

I know it well. We have a house in Fresh East

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Looking good for team wales today / this eve- Have fun !!

Some photos from this morning up on the Rhigos between Hirwaun and Treherbert. Here we are around 480-500m asl  it was stunning with amazing views over the Brecon Beacons and beyond. The mountain

Fair dooz to Torfaen council. They've initiated their red warning plan. I've just received the survival package.

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10 minutes ago, JamesL said:

I can't see I'm on my iPhone ?

I know it well. We have a house in Fresh East

Apologies I'm on a laptop...  Fresh East is just a 'good' walk from where I live... lol !

Already I'm feeling the effects of the occluded front bringing the system in... I've warmed up a 'tad. Temp is -0.5C and dew point is -1.3C

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Nice upgrade this morning between 10 and 15cms or snow Across Wales used the words heavy in places.We shall see how the front develops.We shall see.

Edited by keithlucky
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10 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Nice upgrade this morning between 10 and 15cms or snow Across Wales used the words heavy in places.We shall see how the front develops.We shall see.

What about the north mate?

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26 minutes ago, Uncle Gargy said:

Fergus has now tweeted that it will be a rain event! Talk about last minute!

Can anyone discount this for the Bristol area? Confused . Com

This was his last tweet....

Screenshot_2019-01-31-06-48-40-1.png

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32 minutes ago, Uncle Gargy said:

Fergus has now tweeted that it will be a rain event! Talk about last minute!

Can anyone discount this for the Bristol area? Confused . Com

I think there's a bit of confusion involved here: Fergie tweeted two charts, one from Jan. 23rd and one from midnight, to show how the forecast can and does change. The one from the 23rd showed a rain event, the one from midnight shows the snow event, which is still very much on.

Edited by Jackfrost
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1 minute ago, Jackfrost said:

I think there's a bit of confusion involved here: Fergie tweeted two charts, one from Jan. 23rd and one from midnight, two show how the forecast can and does change. The one from the 23rd showed a rain event, the one from midnight shows the snow event, which is still very much on.

Omg! Thanks for sorting that out,thought my heart was going to give out! ??

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11 minutes ago, whiskers said:

Omg! Thanks for sorting that out,thought my heart was going to give out! ??

Yes, fear not @whiskers, we'll have our snow!

I'm trying to think of historical precedents for this... Does anybody remember the March 11-12th, 2004 event? Similar synoptics and depths, even similar times of day and night, although this time the snow should stick around for a few days instead of an immediate thaw setting in.

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Bit of a downgrade this morning tbh.

Quite a few of the high res models have the front losing its intensity compared to previous runs.

Going to go down to the wire 

take Arpege for example. Just light snow for many and sleet on coasts.

A444F7EC-0275-4478-966F-C2B890FB992D.png

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Not holding out much hope for SW coastal areas... already 4c in Milford/Tenby/Angle (Met O)... -7c in mid-Wales.

Temp forecast to drop later in day as the cold air kicks back in but doubt it'll be enough for any laying snow in this area. I'll be very happy just to see some of the white stuff falling from the sky.

Looks like central southern Wales should do quite well out of this.

Good luck all.

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I just saw the itv wales forecast and it only went to 3pm, that says to me still loads of uncertainty and this could go either way. I'm not feeling confident where I am but I'd  say 150m above should do well

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8 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

Bit of a downgrade this morning tbh.

Quite a few of the high res models have the front losing its intensity compared to previous runs.

Going to go down to the wire 

take Arpege for example. Just light snow for many and sleet on coasts.

A444F7EC-0275-4478-966F-C2B890FB992D.png

 

It's quite possible that could happen. 

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