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42 minutes ago, freeze for all said:

So Thursday is a snow fest now is it?? What happened to tomorrow? On the weekend Tuesday was the snow fest, and Wednesday it will b Friday or Saturday which will b the snow fest. Can u c where this is going? The same as the models all winter things being pushed back and not happening. I do hope your right for Thursday tho but im expecting it to go the way of the pear

No change we see snow tomorrow no problems just that the met  thought the wrap aroud front was going occur across Wales as now will front stall around the south east ,Thursday snow is better aligned with colder continental air will give us bettert covering,rRather than the wet snow we get tomorrow.

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Well Derek....interesting forecast there. Not much snow,maybe 4 inches in places,maybe sleet,Thursday looks snowy but not sure yet 😂

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4 minutes ago, dbaloo said:

Well Derek....interesting forecast there. Not much snow,maybe 4 inches in places,maybe sleet,Thursday looks snowy but not sure yet 😂

He hates snow. I think we all remember 2010 when he said no snow for South Wales and we had a streamer.

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Derek is known for not being a snow lover but I suspect his forecast of tomorrow's weather is correct: snow on higher ground (above 150-200m), a wintry mix or rain below that. Thursday and Friday are still open to question and in contrast to thinking earlier, it now looks like North Wales is in the firing line for the greatest depths due to the pivot of the system, based both on Derek's forecast and this evening's model output.

Edited by Jackfrost

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latest ultra high res in 5k for tommorow 09:00hrs M4 NORTH +

4K.jpg

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4 minutes ago, thetipster said:

latest ultra high res in 5k for tommorow 09:00hrs M4 NORTH +

4K.jpg

So close, yet so far, just need the snow to be a few miles further south 😭

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I was surprised there was so much snow  on derek's map for tomorrow.

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1 hour ago, keithlucky said:

No change we see snow tomorrow no problems just that the met  thought the wrap aroud front was going occur across Wales as now will front stall around the south east ,Thursday snow is better aligned with colder continental air will give us bettert covering,rRather than the wet snow we get tomorrow.

Snow showers moving in overnight after front moves through so nothing boring about Wales weather ,so Wednesday morning let go ice skating.

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1 hour ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

He hates snow. I think we all remember 2010 when he said no snow for South Wales and we had a streamer.

Derek looked a little more stressed tonight - bet he's been working on the forecast diligently all day - yes I agree - I don't think it's his favourite weather type just maybe cause it either goes wrong one way (too little snow and loads of rain) or the other way (lots of snow causing loads of problems) - so it's a nightmare to get right - I think I understand his pain a little - but last year when he left it till the last minute when it was damn obvious what was about to happen - it was pretty bad - but I suppose like the rest of the forecasting team all over the UK they are governed by what they are told now from meteogroup or I expect he even has a cheeky look at the met office too - (like looking over there shoulder at school lol) to make sure.

Front is now starting to show itself in the far west of Ireland on radar

Edited by andymusic

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Evening all from a remarkably bright sunny Pembroke today!

I'm not discounting snow for us on the coast just yet, for one thing the 850hpa has us in the -5C, and as of noon tomorrow we have the 500hpa showing us in the -10C plus. The UkMet pressure charts also show us going into the 528dam sector which is conducive for snow. 

I'm waiting to see how the rain progresses over us. If the rain is gone by approx 1-2pm like some weather charts show then I expect us just to have hail or sleet and freezing temps. If the rains lasts longer after 12 lunchtime then I expect us to slowly go from hail, sleet to big fluffy snowflakes and if the dew point drops low enough during this time then it will start to stick! 

Ever hopeful from the coast, good luck all. 

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47 minutes ago, andymusic said:

Derek looked a little more stressed tonight - bet he's been working on the forecast diligently all day - yes I agree - I don't think it's his favourite weather type just maybe cause it either goes wrong one way (too little snow and loads of rain) or the other way (lots of snow causing loads of problems) - so it's a nightmare to get right - I think I understand his pain a little - but last year when he left it till the last minute when it was damn obvious what was about to happen - it was pretty bad - but I suppose like the rest of the forecasting team all over the UK they are governed by what they are told now from meteogroup or I expect he even has a cheeky look at the met office too - (like looking over there shoulder at school lol) to make sure.

Front is now starting to show itself in the far west of Ireland on radar

I think Derek gets a bad rap , im up in the north west of england a lot and their forecasters are useless. They dont seem even to be trained  unlike derek , he might get it wrong but there are miles worse forecasters out there.

Edited by snowy36

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2 hours ago, keithlucky said:

No change we see snow tomorrow no problems just that the met  thought the wrap aroud front was going occur across Wales as now will front stall around the south east ,Thursday snow is better aligned with colder continental air will give us bettert covering,rRather than the wet snow we get tomorrow.

I understand the negativity from the glass half full brigade .but,.the positive outlook in the met office is amazing never seen a more positive outlook ,with periods of snow over the next month as Andy says they seem to understand the down forcing of the stratospheric warming effect causing zonal reversal better than most!What a outlook!!!!

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Well the first of tonight charts are in (ICON) and i'd say very good for snow but its not going far up into wales on thursday.

Edited by snowy36

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The low on Thursday has moved significantly southwards with the pivot point now around Gloucester!

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Crikey Mikey, the snowdrop, raindrop pics bobbing about on my meto forecast,.  Think will just use the ‘IISO’ to check tomorrow.

Edited by snefnug

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Derek getting concerned but some of latest charts show highest percentage for it to be a northern event. South have limited on current data although still 48+ hrs. Changes possible.

Edited by CRACKPOT

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7 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Derek's starting to get concerned about Thursdays snow.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/DerekTheWeather/status/1090000273844645888

I think it's impossible to call from Derek's point of view... From what I've read I think only the best possible models from the UkMet can only foresee the cloud and rain cover 6hrs plus in advance .... 

He's damned if he doesn't and damned if he does... I'd hate to be weather forecaster in the UK at the moment..

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2 hours ago, thetipster said:

latest ultra high res in 5k for tommorow 09:00hrs M4 NORTH +

4K.jpg

Is there a view of this for north wales too? Conwy valley?

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Snow total expected by  Saturday  

image.png

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4 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Snow total expected by  Saturday  

image.png

Ye the Arpege and Icon are ideal for us in Wales. ECM good too. 

Onto tonight, certainly a little colder, more so than I thought actually with -0.3c in Cardiff at 9pm. Models had 2c. Not that it has any effect on tomorrow but chilly considering right on the coast and not clear atm.

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8 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Snow total expected by  Saturday  

image.png

Isn't that the snow total from the 'Beast' in Feb Keith? 😁

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16 minutes ago, Selliso said:

Is there a view of this for north wales too? Conwy valley?

yes tommorow 11:00hrs ultra high res

4k.1.jpg

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5 minutes ago, thetipster said:

yes tommorow 11:00hrs ultra high res 

4k.1.jpg

tommorow 09:00hrs ultra high res 

4k.1.jpg

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