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Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion


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Looking good for team wales today / this eve- Have fun !!

Dyma rai o'm lluniau gaeafol (Dydd Mawrth - Wythnos diwethaf) Here are some of my wintry scenes from Tuesday, last week Lleoliad/ Location: Blaenau Clwyd 230masl  (Between Corwen and Rhuthun)

Some photos from this morning up on the Rhigos between Hirwaun and Treherbert. Here we are around 480-500m asl  it was stunning with amazing views over the Brecon Beacons and beyond. The mountain

Posted Images

This is one of those scenarios where a little elevation will help

The 850MB temps are marginally on the right side

The dew points are going to be close, so those near the Bristol Channel may lose that factor for a time

Evaporative cooling where heavy precipitation falls will bring snow line lower.

So its all eyes on where that low tracks but i think if anywhere near as forecast, Hills of valleys will see snow

heads of valleys and some parts of Powys may be a sweet spot

Cardiff and Southern Coastal areas a mainly sleet and wet snow event, with more snow at times.

Small corrections will of course change this, possibly bringing snow to lower levels but right now some margins are very knife edge

 

Lets get Tuesday out the way before considering Thursday in any depth, however a second bite of the cherry looks possible.

So somewhere in Uk may see something a little disruptive, France will see a very snowy 24 hours and this heads towards the Alps where with different temperature profiles over last few days - this extra layer of snow may increase the avalanche risk significantly. 

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2 minutes ago, andymusic said:

euro4 Tuesday

image.thumb.png.f480c3473226c357b9d7c2b545fbe7f7.png

Been away for 3 days and im only just catching up but if the euro is saying that why did the meto office give that warning for london and that.

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2 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

Been away for 3 days and im only just catching up but if the euro is saying that why did the meto office give that warning for london and that.

I think we'll get an updated warning nearer the time plus lots more living London way (where they get there wages from too as it's a gov dept lol) - so a longer warning given perhaps

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3 minutes ago, andymusic said:

I think we'll get an updated warning nearer the time plus lots more living London way (where they get there wages from too as it's a gov dept lol) - so a longer warning given perhaps

Just cant see much for that part of the world ??  Lets keep it for ourselves , they can have all the money and we'll keep the snow . Money cant buy u snow 

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6 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

Just cant see much for that part of the world ??  Lets keep it for ourselves , they can have all the money and we'll keep the snow . Money cant buy u snow 

lol - our mountains will suck it dry lol

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So latest on the snow prospect for Tuesday,front moves into Wales tomorrow Afternoon(later the better) 2cms to 5deadline 3to4hrs of snow followed by scattered showers ,Thursday snow looks more active as a front pushes North east across Wales this will cause travel  disruption .

Edited by keithlucky
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Meto still forecasting rain from 11am till 7pm for me tomorrow ? and rain Thursday, as are the BBC, one day they will forecast snow for me again! Are things looking better for us now even down far south? 

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8 minutes ago, DeepSnow said:

Meto still forecasting rain from 11am till 7pm for me tomorrow ? and rain Thursday, as are the BBC, one day they will forecast snow for me again! Are things looking better for us now even down far south? 

BBC said even low levels in Wales and the South West so I assume we'll see some snow. 

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Don't start going like the Mad thread across the way - last couple conflicting each other in here! My sanity won;t take it - only refuge I get is in here ?

*IF* there will be any updates from MetO it will be later this morning and I hope it puts Wales in the warnings.

Busy in work so going to rely on this thread when I get chance to pop on later.

JK

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

BBC said even low levels in Wales and the South West so I assume we'll see some snow. 

Ye there's a difference between falling snow and snow disruption mind, we probably will c snow but not enough to cause any problems. Probably the reason y there is no warnings for us but I think higher ground heads of valleys etc may upgraded to yellow warning 

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Hi all do the BBC and ITV use different models to predict weather? I just watched ITV and warnings are from Bristol to east coast with some distuptive  snow, did say it could shrink in size and not cover whole area.

Yes BBC are showing snow for Wales?

Strange when so close timescale  they don't match.

Myself I think as our normal snow height will be key again for Wales.

Edited by welshwizard
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Worth keeping an eye on Friday morning according to the ECM.  These charts show conditions at 6:00am:

Surface temperature:                                     Accumulated Snow depth:

image.thumb.png.f7543478005e0c025bcfe458ced51c19.png      image.thumb.png.443953603105cc6c9ed1cdb00911072c.png

Wind speed and direction:                             Maximum gusts:

image.thumb.png.af994ff7c83907e6baf827cd20cc43da.png      image.thumb.png.993873936cf8e3d00ee67d9c22ba6e74.png

Quite a stiff wind along northern and western coasts bringing windchill to below freezing, possible snow lying on higher ground.  Might be an interesting morning for early risers.

 

 

Edited by Sky Full
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If only it could have come at night, coming in when temps will be just that bit too warm along the far south I think for a full snow event, maybe back edge snow? Looks good for rest of wales/higher ground!

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Wales looking very much the sweet spot to be on Thursday, which ties in with what we've heard from the Met Office and BBC so far. This map shows snow in Cardiff, Swansea and Newport, as well as the normally more prone regions, with only the extremities (the Vale, Gower, Pembrokeshire, Llŷn and Ynys Môn) faring less well.

image.thumb.png.3b03dd31fc9705fd2c45394192c26ab6.png

It's worth remembering that we're in a favoured location for snow here in Wales. Most of the country has altitude on its side, along with somewhat less of an Atlantic influence in a cold spell than the likes of Southwest England, Ireland and Western Scotland. As in the December 2017 and March 2018 events and in many of the biggest blizzards of the twentieth-century, Wales looks favoured.

Edited by Jackfrost
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Created: 09:55 on Mon 28 Jan 2019 GMT

Further details

A band of rain will arrive across Wales, northern and western England through the middle of Tuesday, then move eastwards through Tuesday afternoon and evening. The rain will turn quickly to snow on hills, then also to low levels in places. 3 to 5 cm snow is likely above 200 metres, with up to 10 cm in a few places. A patchy covering of 1 to 2 cm is possible at low levels, although some places will see no snow at all. As skies clear overnight, ice is likely to form on some surfaces. In addition, wintry showers will follow into western areas on Wednesday morning, giving further slight accumulations of snow in a few places.

 

Snow and ice warning covering all of Wales out by MetO

Screenshot_20190128-100611_Chrome.jpg

Edited by swales
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