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Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    10 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

    Volatile is the word to describe the weather a.t.m .Monday morning showers of sleet and snow move into Wales giving a covering in places.Tuesday gets very interesting,a wrap around low could well stall with heavy snow developing across Wales Tuesday night with heavier snow driving down the dewpoints,the fronts stalling and pivoting  (met office seemed concerned about this developing situation)across Wales.Further sleet snow showers across Wales the rest of the week there after.Heavy sleet and wet snow now in Swansea.

    Is Tuesday looking good then? Hard to tell from the model thread.

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    Looking good for team wales today / this eve- Have fun !!

    Dyma rai o'm lluniau gaeafol (Dydd Mawrth - Wythnos diwethaf) Here are some of my wintry scenes from Tuesday, last week Lleoliad/ Location: Blaenau Clwyd 230masl  (Between Corwen and Rhuthun)

    Some photos from this morning up on the Rhigos between Hirwaun and Treherbert. Here we are around 480-500m asl  it was stunning with amazing views over the Brecon Beacons and beyond. The mountain

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
    4 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    Is Tuesday looking good then? Hard to tell from the model thread.

    Cannot look much better the front tries pushes North driving dew points downwards Tuesday night perfect timing for us in Wales let's see what weather warnings go out Monday,also watch what happens as showers move around dawn could well give a covering.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    1 minute ago, keithlucky said:

    Cannot look much better the front tries pushes North driving dew points downwards Tuesday night perfect timing for us in Wales let's see what weather warnings go out Monday,also watch what happens as showers move around dawn could well give a covering.

    Thanks mate. So you think the low hasn't gone too far south like everyone is saying?

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    Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
    3 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    Thanks mate. So you think the low hasn't gone too far south like everyone is saying?

    Just seen BBC weather they seemed quite concerned about Tuesday night snow possibilities.!

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    Posted
  • Location: Nelson, Caerphilly, South Wales. 175m ASL
  • Location: Nelson, Caerphilly, South Wales. 175m ASL
    11 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    Thanks mate. So you think the low hasn't gone too far south like everyone is saying?

    For what it's worth, Jay, I feel that at the moment we're well-placed in South Wales to see snow this week, and not only on Tuesday. The uncertainty around this is due to the UK being dominated by an unstable cold air mass which makes forecasting this cold spell even more difficult than usual (our cold spells usually come from somewhat more stable northerly or easterly sources). Modest elevation will help, as always, but there are too many other variables at play to rule out snow down to sea level (for example, in Cardiff). Things should firm up a further this morning. It helps that both the Met Office and BBC are expressing concern about possible disruptive snow, but neither are in a position to give further details just yet.

    Edited by Jackfrost
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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    25 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

    For what it's worth, Jay, I feel that at the moment we're well-placed in South Wales to see snow this week, and not only on Tuesday. The uncertainty around this is due to the UK being dominated by an unstable cold air mass which makes forecasting this cold spell even more difficult than usual (our cold spells usually come from somewhat more stable northerly or easterly sources). Modest elevation will help, as always, but there are too many other variables at play to rule out snow down to sea level (for example, in Cardiff). Things should firm up a further this morning. It helps that both the Met Office and BBC are expressing concern about possible disruptive snow, but neither are in a position to give further details just yet.

    I've more elevation now which is good, moved out last march and now in my own place with my partner in Thornhill.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
    8 hours ago, Penfoel said:

    It certainly is stunning , and I’m incredibly fortunate to live here ! 

    But I think I’ll put lead in my boots and hope the cows don’t blow away . 

    It will be an interesting morning ! 

    Well although the wind kept me awake for part of the night it wasn't the worst storm we've had here by any stretch.   Nothing moved or fell off!  Hope all is well with the herd.  In the meantime, here are a couple of charts for 6:00pm Tuesday showing snow accumulation during the day:

    image.thumb.png.bab79bbec5eca3302e1844c4b48c5d98.png  image.thumb.png.faf530f744fa0950857d51838525d65f.png

    These are the worst I can find and other models showing nothing much at all.  Not a lot of snow for Pembrokeshire it seems....but these conditions are hard to forecast and might change at the last minute.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.

    Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

    Remaining cold throughout, with hard overnight frosts. There is relatively high uncertainty for the period, however some significant snow is possible Tuesday into Wednesday, and perhaps again late Thursday.

     

    from the met, looms good to me.

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    Posted
  • Location: blackwood south wales 179m asl
  • Location: blackwood south wales 179m asl

    Thought it would be a lot more busy in here with what’s happening to the weather this week,is it still on for us or has it moved away from us ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Llanharan South Wales 76m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: freezing cold and lots of snow
  • Location: Llanharan South Wales 76m ASL
    Just now, whiskers said:

    Thought it would be a lot more busy in here with what’s happening to the weather this week,is it still on for us or has it moved away from us ? 

    Nobody knows tbh m8 it's all over the place at mo, I'll b keeping my feet firmly on the ground, we did just have our first snow shower of the winter tho so things r looking up lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    4 minutes ago, whiskers said:

    Thought it would be a lot more busy in here with what’s happening to the weather this week,is it still on for us or has it moved away from us ? 

    Not worth getting too excited. I'd wait for the Met Office to issue warnings before expecting snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Strumble Head Pembrokeshire 60m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and hot sun
  • Location: Strumble Head Pembrokeshire 60m asl
    1 hour ago, Sky Full said:

    Well although the wind kept me awake for part of the night it wasn't the worst storm we've had here by any stretch.   Nothing moved or fell off!  Hope all is well with the herd.  In the meantime, here are a couple of charts for 6:00pm Tuesday showing snow accumulation during the day:

    image.thumb.png.bab79bbec5eca3302e1844c4b48c5d98.png  image.thumb.png.faf530f744fa0950857d51838525d65f.png

    These are the worst I can find and other models showing nothing much at all.  Not a lot of snow for Pembrokeshire it seems....but these conditions are hard to forecast and might change at the last minute.

     

    Huge thanks ! 

    We were well prepared last night , so very little damage . 

    The girls ? all cozy and safe and milked , and I survived. 

    Your info really helps us prepare for the worst outcome .... and hope for the best .

    Tea and toast to warm up now , round 2 in a couple of hours !

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)

    Forecast rain and 4c for here tomorrow, I'm feeling on a snowless winter at this rate ?? hope tomorrow goes in our favour but expect rain for now and maybe a nice surprise when it comes.

    Edited by DeepSnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
    3 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

    Find it strange that wales haven’t been included in the Met office warnings

    weather system should be moving from west to east unless it's moving south west to north east - I think that's what they had on their latest ukmo output - but we're gonna get a lot of hefty showers too

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

    Warnings may well change in coming days, wouldn’t worry too much yet.

    One of the issues for us is that the precipitation from the front currently arrives during the middle of the day in Wales. At this stage it’s too marginal here and we need an improvement in timing to improve overall chances. Dew points and temps are too high.

    It’s a rain to snow event for almost everyone though. Further east in UK it arrives later and overnight, increasing their chances.

    Not a fan of Gfs precip charts but they show well the situation. Rain to snow for almost all, much greater chance away from coastal South Wales. 

    4B14AFE8-A2A5-46C1-BFD6-EF1A38501D87.gif

    8DDEAA81-9C76-40E5-A8AF-544BA6CEE4E0.gif

    7185C6EC-E416-4CBF-A716-88A4904F780B.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

    gfs has that nasty mini low come right over Wales too

    image.thumb.png.b85f797e40f5a502c32f74ee7f2fb548.png

    right now they seem to be concentrating maybe on the worst overnight effects of this for London/south - upgraded warnings may still be issued yet

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    Posted
  • Location: Gilfach, Bargoed - SE Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Gales - active weather!!!
  • Location: Gilfach, Bargoed - SE Wales
    4 minutes ago, andymusic said:

    gfs has that nasty mini low come right over Wales too

    image.thumb.png.b85f797e40f5a502c32f74ee7f2fb548.png

    right now they seem to be concentrating maybe on the worst overnight effects of this for London/south - upgraded warnings may still be issued yet

    Agree with the above on the Met current concentration. If it comes as a high chance of snow, purely based on the dense population in that area - would have a bigger impact.

    I believe (probably hope) once they get a better handle closer to the time perhaps we will be lucky enough to get an upgrade and a warning appear in other areas further west to the current once.

    JK

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    Posted
  • Location: Gilfach, Bargoed - SE Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Gales - active weather!!!
  • Location: Gilfach, Bargoed - SE Wales

    This looks reasonably ok from the BBC.....

     

    image.thumb.png.0cfe6f844f5481d6b34a73f59fd35aa0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
    8 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    Yeah and somehow I can't see that happening to be honest as the Met Office have said different.

    regional forecast from the met office jay

    Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

    Tuesday brings the potential for some disruptive snow. After something of a respite on Wednesday, further transient snow is likely on Thursday. Widespread, perhaps severe overnight frosts, and ice likely.

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