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I was hoping for upgrades overnight but I don't see them.

I think down south, away from high ground we will struggle to see snow never mind settling......... and a sleety mix for heads of the valley's north

Lets hope for upgrades through the day today!

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Can't say our weather is boring here in Wales with wind, rain, and possibly snow all due over the next few days.....

Up to 75mph gusts on Sunday especially in the south west:

 image.thumb.png.a7ddff39fd1e32db9fc43dd8c27ca25f.png

30mm of rain over most of the country in the next 36 hours:

 image.thumb.png.2bb7a7487c100af89f6b9a53a8b260c6.png

followed by snow on Tuesday but only to the highest ground:

 image.thumb.png.d327758bfe6fadeb3b9f80dfb23cebdd.png

....all according to the ARPEGE - other models see things differently of course!

 

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latest gfsp has the low slamming into Wales Tuesday for 12 hours of hefty snow to most of not all levels

image.thumb.png.179a16720748b71e3941e3f5c3cc267b.png

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Dyma rai o'm lluniau gaeafol (Dydd Mawrth - Wythnos diwethaf)
Here are some of my wintry scenes from Tuesday, last week

Lleoliad/ Location: Blaenau Clwyd 230masl  (Between Corwen and Rhuthun)

IMG_0038[2].JPG

IMG_0040[1].JPG

IMG_0041[1].JPG

Edited by Bryn Webster

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Yes 06z gfsp is an upgrade for Tuesday night and probably the whole country on the back edge of the low will see rain turn to snow.........BUT it is on its own at the minute with the snow potential. Still time for other models to come on board!!!

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Will it go north will it go south all up for grabs but hopefully we hit the jackpot my fingers are crossed for a good old dumping of the white stuff 

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40 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

Will it go north will it go south all up for grabs but hopefully we hit the jackpot my fingers are crossed for a good old dumping of the white stuff 

Especially were you are need to keep watch out for a Pembroke Dangler,could pop up anytime,Plenty of chances of a streamer setting up in a cold northerly.Sunday night Monday Tuesday Wednesday.

Edited by keithlucky

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There will be upgrades and downgrades in the next 48 hours just stick to metoffice in the 12 hour period of the upcoming snow event .

It could turn out very wet or very snowy we need that low to stay over the south west and not push further south into France also be nice for the winds to turn more from the north east as the north west don't make it a snow event down here in the south east 'great for the heads of the valleys though .

Be nice if @Steve Murr could pop in and give us the heads up for will it snow in Wales next week . Keep the faith everyone. 

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4 hours ago, keithlucky said:

Especially were you are need to keep watch out for a Pembroke Dangler,could pop up anytime,Plenty of chances of a streamer setting up in a cold northerly.Sunday night Monday Tuesday Wednesday.

Charts still looks very promising  up to day 7 northern blocking with Northerly,influence due to a Greenland high building south ,Lying snow over Wales over the next 7days looks a pretty good bet.

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This is a boom 💥 chart for us southern wales folk right here all snow ❄️ as we are on the northern flank, please let this verify we do have cross model agreement of sorts for Tuesday of a channel low with wales on the north side of it.

6CAA1220-8B73-4C39-80C8-C62EF42C4CAA.png

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12z runs are mostly looking superb  for the week ahead gfsp, meto, ecm, icon all look good for cold weather fans. Snow will be a shorter term thing to look out for but i'm happy with where we stand now!!!!

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ICON promising maximum wind gusts overnight of 125km/h (75mph+) directly in my area - thanks for that!

image.thumb.png.1470b5fe9954427fd527ff12f5c106fc.png

 

Edited by Sky Full

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14 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Is there snow coming Tuesday or not? Model thread is confusing.

To early to tell about Tuesday, not even the pro's know the answer to that sorry.

It is easy to forecast that there will be rain but to forecast snow in systems moving from way out at sea is more a case of  following where these systems end up heading and what the conditions are like when they arrive in to our patch.

Edited by NoTraction

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50 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

ICON promising maximum wind gusts overnight of 125km/h (75mph+) directly in my area - thanks for that!

image.thumb.png.1470b5fe9954427fd527ff12f5c106fc.png

 

Jesus 

 

53 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

ICON promising maximum wind gusts overnight of 125km/h (75mph+) directly in my area - thanks for that!

image.thumb.png.1470b5fe9954427fd527ff12f5c106fc.png

 

Great ... I’m really not looking forward to a 5am milking .... by Strumble Head lighthouse .... 

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18 minutes ago, Penfoel said:

Jesus 

 

Great ... I’m really not looking forward to a 5am milking .... by Strumble Head lighthouse .... 

I was walking along the coast path at Abercastle only yesterday - from there to Strumble Head must be one of the most dramatic and beautiful stretches of coast among so many in Pembrokeshire, but you are nothing if not exposed to the wind from the north and west.....  I hope the ICON is overdoing the wind speeds because other models are not so pessimistic.  Good luck with the milking - make sure you rope yourself to the parlour door!

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Im going to go for this low diving south and missing us completely !

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3 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Im going to go for this low diving south and missing us completely !

Good call! odds on.

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Hello all. Back for the crazy season again.

Looks like the valleys could be in the firing line for the best of UK snow again this week. Those reading the MAD thread over time will confirm that those folk in there need Beasterlies to get their boat floated in the SE. North Westerlies deliver for us here in God's country despite the knife edge marginality as always. However, wet snow is our default and big flakes pile up pretty quickly right?

Looks like we will have a couple of potential events this week - Tuesday and Thursday.

Andy / Keith / Julian - what's your current thinking?

Good Luck all.

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2 hours ago, Sky Full said:

I was walking along the coast path at Abercastle only yesterday - from there to Strumble Head must be one of the most dramatic and beautiful stretches of coast among so many in Pembrokeshire, but you are nothing if not exposed to the wind from the north and west.....  I hope the ICON is overdoing the wind speeds because other models are not so pessimistic.  Good luck with the milking - make sure you rope yourself to the parlour door!

It certainly is stunning , and I’m incredibly fortunate to live here ! 

But I think I’ll put lead in my boots and hope the cows don’t blow away . 

It will be an interesting morning ! 

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Diweddariad y Metoffice yn edrych yn ddiddorol am weddill yr wythnos 😄 Great Meto update for this week....disruptive snow anyone? 

5C891B99-1B79-4F09-80F2-172E57F6D2E9.jpeg

Edited by Cymro

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14 minutes ago, Cymro said:

Diweddariad y Metoffice yn edrych yn ddiddorol am weddill yr wythnos 😄 Great Meto update for this week....disruptive snow anyone? 

5C891B99-1B79-4F09-80F2-172E57F6D2E9.jpeg

Croesi'r bysedd yma!  Fingers crossed here 🙂

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Blowing a Hoolie out there.......................

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6 minutes ago, lindy2222 said:

Blowing a Hoolie out there.......................

Same here. Not looking good for snow Tuesday.

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12 hours ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

This is a boom 💥 chart for us southern wales folk right here all snow ❄️ as we are on the northern flank, please let this verify we do have cross model agreement of sorts for Tuesday of a channel low with wales on the north side of it.

6CAA1220-8B73-4C39-80C8-C62EF42C4CAA.png

Volatile is the word to describe the weather a.t.m .Monday morning showers of sleet and snow move into Wales giving a covering in places.Tuesday gets very interesting,a wrap around low could well stall with heavy snow developing across Wales Tuesday night with heavier snow driving down the dewpoints,the fronts stalling and pivoting  (met office seemed concerned about this developing situation)across Wales.Further sleet snow showers across Wales the rest of the week there after.Heavy sleet and wet snow now in Swansea.

Edited by keithlucky

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