Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[bradymk]

The hope for us Cardiff folk is that as we move closer to midnight/1am, the upper winds are due to change slightly and veer more towards a NNW rather than the NW now. Therefore the showers may start to change trajectory slightly if they keep coming. At the moment it’s a little too much to the east for us. 

Now

later tonight

[snowy36]

2 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

The hope for us Cardiff folk is that as we move closer to midnight/1am, the upper winds are due to change slightly and veer more towards a NNW rather than the NW now. Therefore the showers may start to change trajectory slightly if they keep coming. At the moment it’s a little too much to the east for us. 

Now

later tonight

My girl lives in crewe and theres lots of snow about up there. 

[andymusic]

gfs 18z teasing us once again with the major deep cold and snow of a north easterly/easterly by feb 1st - turn of the month - and has showed this steadily for a few days now - do we believe it though - one to keep an eye on - just waiting on the updated euro 4 to see the latest chances for through the night into the morning of anymore snow - but if you really wanna see it get up to storey arms with your sledges tomorrow - start early lol - back with euro4 in a bit

[snowy36]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

gfs 18z teasing us once again with the major deep cold and snow of a north easterly/easterly by feb 1st - turn of the month - and has showed this steadily for a few days now - do we believe it though - one to keep an eye on - just waiting on the updated euro 4 to see the latest chances for through the night into the morning of anymore snow - but if you really wanna see it get up to storey arms with your sledges tomorrow - start early lol - back with euro4 in a bit

I dont believe it for a minute but i dont believe any models at this moment or the meto office or those 30 day charts from the ECW . No one has  a clue what will happen after 5-6 days  , i dont care what people say. Im sure the proper cold will come at sometime but its just a waiting game.

[Marcus_surfer]

Very icy here now but zero snow and looks set to continue that way!

[andymusic]

euro4 has this for midnight - not sure the short range models have much of a clue either lol

3am

6am

9am

 

Edited January 22, 2019 by andymusic

[A Frayed Knot]

4 minutes ago, andymusic said:

euro4 has this for midnight - not sure the short range models have much of a clue either lol

3am

6am

9am

 

Liking the 3 am and 6am ones .

[andymusic]

10 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

I dont believe it for a minute but i dont believe any models at this moment or the meto office or those 30 day charts from the ECW . No one has  a clue what will happen after 5-6 days  , i dont care what people say. Im sure the proper cold will come at sometime but its just a waiting game.

yep - a 100 million pound super computer and it still can't quite get it's servers/chips/motherboard lol round the problem - but know doubt it's the human element right now that maybe causing the problem - and more study and future learning will get us there eventually

[RhysWales]

Typical man. Radar has had snow heading right at me for the past couple of hours. Guess where it's been dying in its tracks? (I'm in that black circle)

Any hope @andymusic?

[snowy36]

I like the euro 24 , its probably the best we see, it matches up  to what was on derek map just now.

[andymusic]

4 minutes ago, RhysWales said:

Typical man. Radar has had snow heading right at me for the past couple of hours. Guess where it's been dying in its tracks? (I'm in that black circle)

Any hope @andymusic?

well there's always hope - typical though that gfs has been placing snow showers all over wales except the very small part of the south east - and yes, unless there's some strong fronts or hefty showers - traversing north west to south east or north to south presents the snow with a mountainous problem in Wales - the guys up north and mid-wales invariably get theres (mainly sheep lol) but by the time it gets to us after the beacons have sucked them dry lol theres none left lol - keep the faith though there are exceptions to the rule but maybe we'll need to wait for the easterly that may or may not show it's face shortly

Edited January 22, 2019 by andymusic

[snowy36]

3 minutes ago, andymusic said:

yep - a 100 million pound super computer and it still can't quite get it's servers/chips/motherboard lol round the problem - but know doubt it's the human element right now that maybe causing the problem - and more study and future learning will get us there eventually

I know people claim to know lots and lots about the SSW and the effects it has  but im not sure they know as much as they think they do . Thats why i dont trust anything after 120 hours .

[RhysWales]

3 minutes ago, andymusic said:

well there's always hope - typical though that gfs has been placing snow showers all over wales except the very small part of the south east - and yes, unless there's some strong fronts or hefty showers - traversing north west to south east or north to south presents the snow with a mountainous problem in Wales - the guys up north and mid-wales invariably get theres but by the time it gets to us after the beacons it's sucked dry lol - keep the faith though there are exceptions to the rule but maybe we'll need to wait for the easterly that may or may not show it's face shortly

It would be the unluckiest winter I remember if we do miss out on any fun and games this time around. I get the feeling we'll see something like January 2013, but it's so frustrating seeing the potential for something really memorable to come off!

[andymusic]

2 minutes ago, RhysWales said:

It would be the unluckiest winter I remember if we do miss out on any fun and games this time around. I get the feeling we'll see something like January 2013, but it's so frustrating seeing the potential for something really memorable to come off!

I don't think we'll miss out either - coming into the best part of the winter now and coldest - and all the signs are pointing in the right direction even if we quite haven't hit the ful jackpot yet - but it's coming - I'm sure it's coming - showers now changing direction and ones up north shooting south - let's see where we go from here and we can spread the snow round a little lol

[snowy36]

It looks like the wind is changing now.

Edited January 22, 2019 by snowy36

[andymusic]

latest from the new artic beacons

[A Frayed Knot]

Rain here

[andymusic]

4 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Rain here

that's a shame, but nothing is showing on radar for you for Chepstow?

[snowy36]

4 minutes ago, andymusic said:

latest from the new artic beacons

Just seen a video on facebook and Merthyr has had a good bit .

[snowy36]

14 minutes ago, andymusic said:

I don't think we'll miss out either - coming into the best part of the winter now and coldest - and all the signs are pointing in the right direction even if we quite haven't hit the ful jackpot yet - but it's coming - I'm sure it's coming - showers now changing direction and ones up north shooting south - let's see where we go from here and we can spread the snow round a little lol

I think that second blob could have our name on it 

[andymusic]

1 minute ago, snowy36 said:

I think that second blob could have our name on it 

if it gets over the beacons

[snowy36]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

if it gets over the beacons

We'll be unlucky if we dont see one flake 

[coldie]

That blob is expanding!

[andymusic]

4 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

We'll be unlucky if we dont see one flake 

I did see one today (I lie two I think lol) at the back end of a wintry shower - more forming in cardigan bay too - depends on the change of direction etc - could be a long night lol

[snowy36]

Just now, coldie said:

That blob is expanding!

Yes we want a big blob   Come on blobby do u best