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3 minutes ago, andymusic said:

gfs 18z steady as she goes - Monday night

image.thumb.png.36ad286339574cdb0baaaf31689e8edc.png

OMG!  Just seen your latest post above - if that Monday night snowfall is still being shown on Sundays charts I'm definitely travelling back Monday morning!

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Looking good for team wales today / this eve- Have fun !!

Dyma rai o'm lluniau gaeafol (Dydd Mawrth - Wythnos diwethaf) Here are some of my wintry scenes from Tuesday, last week Lleoliad/ Location: Blaenau Clwyd 230masl  (Between Corwen and Rhuthun)

Some photos from this morning up on the Rhigos between Hirwaun and Treherbert. Here we are around 480-500m asl  it was stunning with amazing views over the Brecon Beacons and beyond. The mountain

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14 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Some heavy freezing rain showing up for parts of mid & South Wales on the GFS 12z ?

image.jpeg

Got to get there before we worry about it plus it will fall on all the snow we have ?

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8 minutes ago, andymusic said:

these snow accumulations by tuesday

 

gfsp 22nd accum.png

Think we are still looking like “ no show “ here , but don’t wanna be caught out ( got dairy cows ) .... do I need to make sure I’m well stocked up Andy ? Followed your advice last year and you were spot on ! 

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37 minutes ago, Penfoel said:

Think we are still looking like “ no show “ here , but don’t wanna be caught out ( got dairy cows ) .... do I need to make sure I’m well stocked up Andy ? Followed your advice last year and you were spot on ! 

it did seem a lot easier last year from 2 weeks out it never missed a beat and hit us dead on, been a bit messier this time but everything seems to be falling into place now - once the north easterly continental easterly winds cut in mid-week - it's game over for anything altitude based or marginal - all altitudes and areas come under fire just because there's that much deep cold about - so yes I would say get prepped as from around midnight Monday night the real part of winter kicks off - gfsp 18z is also once again crazy easterly profile - the ssw has really hit hard again - so here we go

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11 hours ago, snowy36 said:

Bloody Euro's , not only do they take our money they take our snow??

But then living in Wales they give us a lot more money back than we pay in. Maybe they'll do the same with the snow?

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8 hours ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Chepstow here and temp is 6.1 and keeping up surely this is a no go event how can we go from zero within 48 hours to hero all not happening I reckon and it's all hyped up big time .

just cause it's 6.1 now doesn't mean to say that by the middle of next week there won't be snow on the ground and an easterly bringing very cold temps - if you remember last year just before the easterly we had then we had some "tropical" temps - and no one believed for one minute what was about to happen with the easterly and 7ft snow drifts

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Looks like it's gone pear shaped, can't say i'm surprised really though. We might see some snow monday night into Tuesday but what an absolute disaster of a winter this is turning out to be. I still haven't seen a single snowflake, the last time that happened was in winter 2006/07, even in the very mild winters of 2013/14 and 2015/16 I saw some snow!

Edited by coldie
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Model wobbles from an Eastern Englander perspective...they absolutely dominate the model thread...fear not all is ok just variations of the theme we still look primed to be rather cold and snowy here in Wales into next week! 

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Last year we had the huge drifts in early March. Sadly no glory for the south coast near the airport expected imminently. Good luck to everyone else this week. Hope you get some snowy fun and that is lowlanders can join the party soon. 

8C5C204C-1BAF-4280-8CF6-E1B792EBF742.jpeg

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21 hours ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Derek having none of it on latest weather report just now .Saying wet with sleet and snow Monday evening and then rest of the week dry and sunny so who's right . Confused.com

See he was right then all that UKMO business yesterday and now all the sad faces ?

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I hate to be the voice of reason nobody asked for but this is a great example of why we really need to put less faith in model output outside of a reliable timeframe and (not to have a dig at anybody in particular) those whose uncontrolled ramping is 90% of the time going to lead to disappointment. The Beast combining with Storm Emma would have been a fairly rare event in a pre-climate change winter, and with a warming climate it was never likely to repeat itself this year. It'll happen again but we'll need to wait. That said, some colder weather and some possible wintriness is likely over the next week, and after that we'll have to wait and see.

I honestly find our climate too benign to take much interest anymore. Having spent November in Montréal and experiencing -16C temperatures and 30cm of snow (in November!), I find chasing the odd snowflake here a bit pointless. Thanks to the benign climate, though, we live in a wonderfully green country which is full of history that you can enjoy at all times of the year, so why not forget about the weather for a bit and get out and enjoy some low-season wintry walks, something you can't so easily do in much of the northern hemisphere in winter?

Edited by Jackfrost
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