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Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

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18 minutes ago, snefnug said:

Interesting meto 10 day trend on YouTube.  Great basic explanation of computer modelling for beginners like me

 

 

 

He mentions a guy called Dai Vergence lol - I think I know him from Merthyr lol - yes everything up in the air but the probability at the mo that the milder air may just win out this time - but we shall see

Edited by andymusic
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😂 but seriously folks, it does help to learn,.  I’m currently on an open University degree course, part time.  This term is philosophy.  Main forums are like  the current ‘hunt for cold’.  Handful of commentators, who appear to be very knowledgeable, I’m a rookie,  I try to learn, but ain’t gonna comment on there.

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Blinking Parkin here today under heavy mist/fog/cloud.  Netweather says 10d Celsius, meto 5.  (for Llangollen although we seem to default to Hawarden, up Chester way 🤔)No way Jose!  5 if lucky.  Heating back on and looking forward to mild incursion.

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On ‎23‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 14:50, snefnug said:

Blinking Parkin here today under heavy mist/fog/cloud.  Netweather says 10d Celsius, meto 5.  (for Llangollen although we seem to default to Hawarden, up Chester way 🤔)No way Jose!  5 if lucky.  Heating back on and looking forward to mild incursion.

yep can concour - was up in Liverpool on a job last night and coming back through Cambrian mnts/Builth Wells today it was dropping to 5c and over the beacons - so flipping cold is still here - rain and milder by Tuesday/Wednesday and more mobile after that from the west - talk of high pressure and blockiness in 10/15 who knows time????? - we shall have to wait and see.

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The Met Office have issued a yellow weather warning of high winds for both Wednesday and Thursday covering coastal areas of south, west and north Wales and also includes most of the south west, Devon and Cornwall.  Maximum gusts at present look likely to be along Irish Sea coasts.  Will know more by tomorrow.

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Very rather chilly, temps dropped sharply at sunset, now hovering 0.5. 

 

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Wet and breezy first thing this morning - goodbye calm, cold, sunny days .... hello stormy, wet and mild!

The maximum wind gusts in Wales are likely to be felt on Wednesday between 12:00 noon and 3:00pm, as the storm centre moves north-east:

1:00pm:   image.thumb.png.fa91c7edddc2d233b83069a9807f201b.png

2:00pm:   image.thumb.png.c1ee9dc493d693af87485b6f9faa53ae.png

3:00pm:  image.thumb.png.81d832061cd422fd31ad5b06ade50676.png

Widespread gusts up to 60mph, coastal areas up to 70mph, but potential in exposed places of 80mph+.  Strong winds in all areas both sides of this peak period.

 

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The total rainfall expected over Wales in the next 72 hours is not looking as bad as predicted a couple of days ago according to the GFS:

image.thumb.png.d6b17dc58c574ce25e9887a2ee93f4e2.png

Around 40mm over the Brecons, Presellis and coastal Snowdonia is not too bad over three days.  It hammered down in Haverfordwest for most of the morning yesterday and the roads were running with water, so a few days with a little less rain would be a good thing.

 

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It's difficult to describe the condions here over the past hour as this little feature is crossing Pembrokeshire - heavy lashing rain and violent wind gusts throwing water at the windows like a fire hose.  Not pleasant.  Looks like other areas of the country will also be enjoying some stormy conditions for a while this morning....

image.thumb.gif.7073c9851a6fd0dd76574ad53d76e1aa.gif  image.thumb.gif.0242c0bb162c84ea8e01a1349eccf5e8.gif

At least it looks to be moving through quickly and perhaps all will be calmer by mid-morning.  Let's hope this is the last bit of violent weather for a few days now.

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3 hours ago, Sky Full said:

 Let's hope this is the last bit of violent weather for a few days now.

I must admit, I do enjoy 'violent' weather, although we call it "exciting" in our house in order not to panic the children!

Almost 40mm here since breakfast yesterday, the bulk of which arrived in the early hours today. The wind has eased considerably in the last half hour or so.

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2 hours ago, Sir Clive said:

I must admit, I do enjoy 'violent' weather, although we call it "exciting" in our house in order not to panic the children!

Almost 40mm here since breakfast yesterday, the bulk of which arrived in the early hours today. The wind has eased considerably in the last half hour or so.

I also enjoy violent and extreme weather when I feel relatively detached from it but I do get worried when its testing the doors, windows and even the roof of the house!  The wind has oddly dropped considerably since early morning although it is still drizzling persistently - but this is fairly normal for the time of year in this area TBH!  I don't think this is the only stormy weather Wales will experience before the end of the year, and maybe we'll be made to pay for the extended period of calm, dry and relatively sunny conditions we recently enjoyed.     

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A chance of some snow for us next Thursday according to a few posters in the mad thread, m4 northwards I would imagine! 😀

EPS1.png.fdbc636098f6f2317d66303d0df51dd5.png

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I believe the cold will kick in before Christmas , the Atlantic will cool it's boots before long ! I'll give it another week or two before the cold sets in , mad thread is crazy as per ! This is my opinion regardless , let's just hope it's right 🤨

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Managed to get a 44mph wind gust on one of the hills around here on Wednesday but had to get back before midday so may have had higher in the afternoon.

Apart from another very windy spell yesterday morning its been fairly calm recently with just sunshine and occasional showers in a lighter wind.

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On off wind and rain today, reassuringly cool at 9 degrees at mo. Yet another super excuse to light log burner early.....

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Well I'm off to New York tomorrow morning, leaving my fellow welshies for a week, will be back Sunday. Looks cool/cold but dry for me whilst I'm out there which will be great to get everything I want done.

I hope to come back to some good new for us next weekend! I'll try and bring some cold and snow back with me 😅

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Chilly frosty morning, pale grey blue sky and  light ripple cloud . 1deg c

 

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Mad Model thread seems have crashed, is because they are super excited for snow or the weight of all toys being chucked simultaneously?

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Louise Lear bbc weather this evening, sleeves chanelling snow or jellyfish?  Let’s hope snow.  

 

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After (yet another) VERY wet night with blustery winds we have a respite this morning with a bright sunny start and light wind.  There are some shower clouds visible on various horizons but so far dry here.....   This could be the best day of the week because it's likely to go downhill fast from tonight through the weekend.  There seems to be an endless train of Atlantic low pressure systems headed our way, some of which could turn nasty, so no let up in the run-up to Christmas as far as I can see.  The run-off from the fields is pouring onto the roads around here and all this has to end up in low lying rivers in the next 24 hours.  There's likely to be some local flooding reported today in South Wales so let's hope for a few rain free days next week to dry us up a bit!

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Watched Louise Lear’s week forecast for last night and the projected drop in temperatures estimated for Sunday have already happened, currently 8 degrees here. So changes happening even faster than modelled.  Still not understanding that dress.

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