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Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

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dreck day today, mizzly rain, sideways rain, cool on the gusty tops, humid down in a the valley.  Very windy now, with rain rattling against windows.  Vinnie the once permanent outie cat and now permanent innie cat curled up by me on sofa, log burner on.   “Blow, winds, and crack your cheeks! rage! blow” me and the vinnie are innie!

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Dreich here ..blowling a hoolie......mild.............................

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We`ve got these mild SSWlys for awhile I doubt.

First half to 2/3 of November is usually mild and dull.

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On Tuesday, November 06, 2018 at 18:32, Snowyowl9 said:

We`ve got these mild SSWlys for awhile I doubt.

First half to 2/3 of November is usually mild and dull.

Very similar to November 2009, let's hope we can get a winter like 09-10 to match! 

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Just got back after three weeks abroad in England...   Have been watching the rainfall levels while I was away but could not believe the amount of water on the rural roads around here.  They seem to be almost at capacity already and yet there is another 60+mm rain forecast for parts of south west Wales over the next three days.  Together with high winds today and tonight this is not good news for our location but at least next week promises to be less wild and a bit drier....  The sky is just lightening to a dull steely grey with heavy cloud cover and rain is imminent.  Will have to take down the bird feeders again or they'll end up in the undergrowth later if we get the wind gusts as predicted.

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Good grief!  Wind howling down the chimney and up through the gaps in the wood floors.  Rain being hurtlesd against windows.  Cats and I by fire, husband out, hope he will be ok.  Probably get some power outages, so candles, torches to the ready.  

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Another evil day for Wales yesterday with some river levels in the south west getting close to the record maximums recorded in early October.  Some respite overnight has seen levels recede a little but any heavy showers today in the wrong places could bring some localised flooding.  The wind has dropped overnight and it's been a calmer start to the day but already we have had a heavy downpour.  Currently the sky is brightening again here and I'm hoping for a couple of hours without rain if we're lucky.  Looking less stormy and possibly sunnier at times next week but the weather remains changeable if still on the mild side.  Have not lit the fire yet as not really cold enough yet here at least, but we've made it up ready! 

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Just been outside with Rosie (the dog...) 🐶 ... Sun's broken through, patches of blue sky visible, still a lot of shower cumulus about but it seems to be thinning.  Not bad now, for a mid- November day.  Fairly mild but quite breezy.  Funny how conditions can change so dramatically over 12 hours.  Thankfully we seem to be free from damage, although plenty of water still streaming off the fields so I guess the river levels will take a while to subside.  No sign of any real cold yet but plenty of time for that before Christmas, eh?

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Signs of things quietening down with the weather beyond mid-week for a week or two as high pressure takes charge giving the chance of any flooding to subside and things get back to "normal" - should cool down too as we enter the 3rd part of Nov into Dec with a possibility of some really cold weather after that - but the settled weather will be great for a change

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A little bit of thunder and lightning yesterday late afternoon near Lampeter. Plenty of rain and some hail too.

Just under six inches of rain already this month in these parts. Looks like being a largely bright day here....cold though.

 

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GFS 12z just churned out 2010 November/December all over again to start in about 8 - 10 days time

polar bears.png

polar bear 2.png

sight to behold.png

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gfs-2-240.png?12

at the extremities of will it won't it - but 1st signs of the white stuff by around 10 days time

Edited by andymusic

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2 hours ago, andymusic said:

gfs-2-240.png?12

at the extremities of will it won't it - but 1st signs of the white stuff by around 10 days time

Change is on the way as the the HP pushes North dragging colder and colder air as Russia turns coder, the coder air filters westwardshttps://twitter.com/i/status/1062351524087631872

Edited by keithlucky
wrong link

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Pretty cold come middle of next week Imagewith -10 uppers pushing in to east UK possible some snow fall

.Concerning the approaching solar minimum andy this latest fromNASA https://t.co/BhHtpBS4Ul

Edited by keithlucky
error

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GFS 18z offering a different solution tonight but still involving plenty of cold and dare I say it snowy weather into next week - especially initially with a little elevation but then potentially with a greeny high snow to more areas of the UK with even colder temps

gfs-2-288.png?18

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gfs 06z keeping the theme going with mid-winter snow charts appearing even before the end of November - very 2010 esq - hope you're all ready for this:cold:

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My goodness me, AppleUK 123 is a miserable something or other on the hunt for cold thread.  I know they are all getting tewibbly excited about  cold/snow prospects, and I understand it’s going a teeny bit blobby pear shaped but that crabby Apple person is raining vinegar on their parade.

Edited by snefnug

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There is plenty of hope-casting going on elsewhere on NW but the chances of an early Winter cold spell of weather affecting Wales have receded this morning.  We will see some average or slightly below average temperatures over the next few days but we may to wait a little longer before we see any significant snow.  We will get some, though - winter hasn't even started yet!

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2 hours ago, Sky Full said:

There is plenty of hope-casting going on elsewhere on NW but the chances of an early Winter cold spell of weather affecting Wales have receded this morning.  We will see some average or slightly below average temperatures over the next few days but we may to wait a little longer before we see any significant snow.  We will get some, though - winter hasn't even started yet!

Slightly disagree ,models after all these years still cannot handle a change to a easterly flow simple to forecast a westerly flow ,model swings aplenty over the next few days.Remember the best cold spells are slow burners.

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1 hour ago, keithlucky said:

Slightly disagree ,models after all these years still cannot handle a change to a easterly flow simple to forecast a westerly flow ,model swings aplenty over the next few days.Remember the best cold spells are slow burners.

yes - this week some will see some snow in Wales - Tuesday and Wednesday look good for a few early flakes especially overnight - and the precip looks to be coming in from the low from the east too - due to the marginal temps - it will probably be at altitude, but still this week will deliver some snow - after that - models still playing around with a number of solutions - meto going with a low coming up from the south to spoil things, but we shall see

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Whilst it would be nice to see an early snowfall, I would settle for some early cold wintery days with clear sunshine and that crisp frosty atmosphere to set things up going forward. I'm a bit hopeful of seeing some snow in Manhattan/New York in 2 weeks when I'm there, but knowing my luck it'll be pouring down 😂 Lets just hope that these first and early signs of cold even if they don't come off first or even second time will bode will for us through the winter as a whole! 

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nest week

 

gfsp.png

gfsp1.gif

gfsp2.gif

looking like Wales may well do very well out of this easterly this coming week

Edited by andymusic

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