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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
    2 hours ago, bradythemole said:

    -13c 850hpa on 18z GFS. ECM below -10c too. So a little lower on sat night/Sunday than you said. No doubt sun is going to raise the air temp more than in mid winter. However dew point will be well below zero again which is the important thing. 

    ECM has snow for all of wales Saturday night and temperatures not getting above 0c all day Sunday for Cardiff. Brrrrr

    still a long way to go mind!

    A0DF0BEF-0EEF-42F4-90A8-DACEA6D73EB6.gif

    looking like another lock in of cold - beast from east for a good few days again from Saturday onwards

    Edited by andymusic
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    Looking good for team wales today / this eve- Have fun !!

    Dyma rai o'm lluniau gaeafol (Dydd Mawrth - Wythnos diwethaf) Here are some of my wintry scenes from Tuesday, last week Lleoliad/ Location: Blaenau Clwyd 230masl  (Between Corwen and Rhuthun)

    Some photos from this morning up on the Rhigos between Hirwaun and Treherbert. Here we are around 480-500m asl  it was stunning with amazing views over the Brecon Beacons and beyond. The mountain

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
    13 hours ago, Seasonal weather required said:

    BFTE2 - not interested - go away your not welcome .

    Guaranteed this time Swansea will get hit with heavy precipitation from a front hitting the cold like last time - however you just know that this will be heavy sleet - oh so so close but yet another epic fail it will be .

    Further east and north and obviously for the valley wallers it’s just pure greed and excess as they get another pasting .

    Im not scarred by the last most epic of epic fails of all time .... honest ...........

     

    Anyway BBC app shows a blizzard out of nowhere at 0700 in mumbles next Monday.

    Nothing before and nothing after .

    So anyone planning on one of those tiny cups of coffee that you can’t even get a finger into the handle in Verdis next Monday morning be warned .

     

    All eyes on Derek now , the pressure is really on this time .

    I think he hoped this would just fade away but here we are again with Dekka staring down the barrel ...

    Andy , I think you should contact BBC Wales and offer to do the forecast in place of Derek ? 

    For me - BFTE2 get lost your not welcome 

    FA1CC7EB-CC81-4AAA-8135-E04F357A1DE3.png

    I don't want his job - too busy doing my own lol - but i'll be emailing my thoughts his way about the crap warnings to see if I can make a difference shortly

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
    6 hours ago, beatpete said:

    Whats with the Dererk/BBC bashing? I though they were spot on last time. Look at it this way, those of us around Swansea were hopeful of a a good dump of snow, good early orange warning, as it happen didn't get much at all, it stayed east, mainly in the Red warning area which was issued as soon as the high res models put some placement on it. Warnings any earlier would be inaccurate and the general guidance and early warning to authorities was very accurate. Fingers crossed for the weekend even if it's only likely in the higher parts. 

      

    yeah but we knew on here a good week and a half before Siberia easterly hit that things were gonna be bad and the beeb and met kept it to themselves till last minute - not long enough enough warnings for the elderly or infirm etc - enough warning for peeps to get supplies in - it was clear what was on the cards and peeps did get stuck in cars freezing and on trains freezing and died too - much earlier warnings and more would have hunkered down and stayed safe

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
    6 hours ago, DeepSnow said:

    Hmm with uppers of -8c at this time of year daytime highs will still reach 4-6C+ surely? So im not expecting much if any snow for most lowland areas if it comes off.

    the beast will bring low enough temps and dewpoints again to give all altitudes a chance of snow - don't you worry - spring ain't sprung yet and doesn't look like doing so for sometime yet

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea 450ft asl
  • Location: Swansea 450ft asl
    10 hours ago, andymusic said:

    I don't want his job - too busy doing my own lol - but i'll be emailing my thoughts his way about the crap warnings to see if I can make a difference shortly

    Come on Andy you could do it no problem.

    I can picture you in some sort of welsh colours suit with a top hat , stick ,monacle and fake moustache bringing personality to the forecast .

    Viewing figures would increase for sure with us all hanging off your every word .

    Perhaps you could have a hand puppet ?

    A derek hand puppet !! A derek hand puppet you control - ventriloquism you know .

    ” Naughty Derek , down Derek ! , we must warn the viewers “ you would say to the puppet as it tried to remove the snow stickers from the weather board .

    Like a spit the dog and bob carolgees thing I think it was ?

    Anyway checking the forecast now ...

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL

    It feels so warm in the sun today and we have medium uv levels! Sun cream at the ready!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
    22 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

    It feels so warm in the sun today and we have medium uv levels! Sun cream at the ready!

    There will be some shocked folk on the weekend, notably Sunday with temperatures 0 - 4 . It will feel around 10 degrees colder by Sunday with some sporadic snow cover across Wales. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackwood 230m asl
  • Location: Blackwood 230m asl

    i hope not....i have the newport half this weekend.it was cancelled because of beast number 1!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales

    must admit I just want spring warmth now.  First beer outside in the sun in always a nice event

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    Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
    2 hours ago, PompeyFC said:

    must admit I just want spring warmth now.  First beer outside in the sun in always a nice event

    Yes lovely day ,pity the warmth is going to vanish ,until at least April bloody cold weekend we be lucky to see 2c.Sunday looks particulary interesting we could well sse another covering across Wales as more persistant showers moving across Wales sunday night. with even a dusting causing more bloody school closures.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
    10 hours ago, BendertheRobot said:

    I'm 100% certain Derek will be reporting on snow this week.

    he's already been doing it - a result of him not doing it early enough the last time lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
    13 hours ago, Seasonal weather required said:

    Come on Andy you could do it no problem.

    I can picture you in some sort of welsh colours suit with a top hat , stick ,monacle and fake moustache bringing personality to the forecast .

    Viewing figures would increase for sure with us all hanging off your every word .

    Perhaps you could have a hand puppet ?

    A derek hand puppet !! A derek hand puppet you control - ventriloquism you know .

    ” Naughty Derek , down Derek ! , we must warn the viewers “ you would say to the puppet as it tried to remove the snow stickers from the weather board .

    Like a spit the dog and bob carolgees thing I think it was ?

    Anyway checking the forecast now ...

     

     

    just brilliant lol - maybe I will apply - love the derek hand puppet bit lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind and summer storms
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan

     

    So to the weekend and it looks unseasonably bitter this weekend BUT here in Wales I can't see a whole lot of snow ❄️ especially on the 0z charts this morning as the main upper trough flirts with the SE and S Coast, Normandy and the Channel Islands. 

    IMO if you're going to have -12 to -14 upper air in MARCH!! (Which is almost unprecedented) you have at least got to make it interesting with some snow. 

    Our only saving grace would be if the upper trough is going to move north by 100 miles (which is possible as the Scandi high hasn't even formed yet), OR we get some decent solar heating and create our own inland showers (again which is very possible given the strength of the March sun) 

    So although quite incredible depth of cold is shown for at least 2 days, the synopsis is fairly underwhelming if like me you want some snow. 

    I do hope I'm proved wrong. I think by the 12z tomorrow we will have firmed up on the details of the upper cold pool and where it will and will not hit.

    Right now it looks like Kent could get hit with 10-15cms of snow overnight sat into Sunday and maybe some other southern most counties could scrape a covering.

    For Wales I just see a lot of blue skies and sunshine which out of the wind, should feel pleasant on your face despite the temps being only a degree or so above freezing. 

    Id like to know others thoughts too. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

    We had colder upper air in april 2013,it will certainly be no March 2013 now.

    A 2 day easterly getting shorter and shorter.

    Weekened the only interest now,with some snow showers.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ammanford 760 ft asl ( south wales )
  • Location: Ammanford 760 ft asl ( south wales )

    Looks like a dry 2 day cold spell ,Maybe one day we will have a Pest from the West :)

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea 450ft asl
  • Location: Swansea 450ft asl
    1 hour ago, Wosser said:

    Looks like a dry 2 day cold spell ,Maybe one day we will have a Pest from the West :)

     

    After the beautiful sunny warmth of yesterday I’m happy to see the so called beast from the east bugger off .

    It didn’t scare us in Swansea as we faced up to it and laughed in its face .

    No , i don’t want the beast from the east , pest from the west , nob from the north , much rather the seductress from the south this time .

    Though rather like Cinderella the beast from the east will quickly change and is very welcome in summer  .

    Anyway more importantly ,growing evidence now pointing to the theory that the Russians are trying to manipulate the weather by creating SSWarmings thus creating easterlies and of course air sourced from that region —-air which can carry a plague of tiny robotic flies to infiltrate our security , or perhaps poisoned air ..?

    Mayve I should be careful what I say ( sorry Vladimir butt ) .

    Perhaps Derek is in on this ? lack of warnings ? A smugness as he knew what was coming - the robotic flies are already here ! ff sake it all makes sense now !!

    Andy watch out !! Derek has some seriously hard mates .....

    Right , im off to get one of those electronic tennis bat bug zappers ..

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    Yesterday was such a lovely day , got the washing out on the line , felt like spring was in the air ! Looks like a down grade on the 'beast' which after a spring taster yesterday I'm quite happy with that , it's been a long winter I fancy ! Roll on long days and plenty of sun please ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)

    Im out in cardiff for my Birthday celebrations Friday and Saturday night so as long as it stays dry I will be happy. But expecting to miss out like last time for the most part on anything that does happen again ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Pencoed
  • Location: Pencoed
    11 hours ago, andymusic said:

    he's already been doing it - a result of him not doing it early enough the last time lol

    He hasn't. Not really, he's been posting some temps and arpege charts. 

    Anyhow, my post was a bit tongue in cheek, he has and will be reporting on snow as he's currently skiing :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
    8 hours ago, JamesL said:

     

    So to the weekend and it looks unseasonably bitter this weekend BUT here in Wales I can't see a whole lot of snow ❄️ especially on the 0z charts this morning as the main upper trough flirts with the SE and S Coast, Normandy and the Channel Islands. 

    IMO if you're going to have -12 to -14 upper air in MARCH!! (Which is almost unprecedented) you have at least got to make it interesting with some snow. 

    Our only saving grace would be if the upper trough is going to move north by 100 miles (which is possible as the Scandi high hasn't even formed yet), OR we get some decent solar heating and create our own inland showers (again which is very possible given the strength of the March sun) 

    So although quite incredible depth of cold is shown for at least 2 days, the synopsis is fairly underwhelming if like me you want some snow. 

    I do hope I'm proved wrong. I think by the 12z tomorrow we will have firmed up on the details of the upper cold pool and where it will and will not hit.

    Right now it looks like Kent could get hit with 10-15cms of snow overnight sat into Sunday and maybe some other southern most counties could scrape a covering.

    For Wales I just see a lot of blue skies and sunshine which out of the wind, should feel pleasant on your face despite the temps being only a degree or so above freezing. 

    Id like to know others thoughts too. 

    The absence of the upper 500mb low (GFS & Partially UKMO) does seriously inhibit convective potential. The result would be a predominately dry weekend, with flurries limited to the English/Welsh borders. 

    The Below GFS 6z Show sThe Upper Low Across Northern France (Blue Area). 

    Netweather GFS Image

    Skew - T Forecast Sunday 12:00 (Cardiff):

    image.png
     

    The Dew Point & Temperature signature show at best a partially saturated atmosphere. The highest saturation (Closest Meeting Point) is sounded at a low altitude, showing very shallow convection within the 1000 - 900mb vertical sector (Sea Level - 1000m). Cape (Convective Available Potential Energy) & Lapse Rates being low limit the convection further. 

    Not all models take the Upper Low as far south as the GFS.  ECM & ICON further north with the UKMO a middle ground situation. As a result the Skew - T forecasts would be more promising with regard to inland convection, though NO BIG TOTALS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR WALES (5cm MAX). 

     

    Edited by MattTarrant
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    Posted
  • Location: blackwood south wales 179m asl
  • Location: blackwood south wales 179m asl

    This cold on the weekend ,are we expecting any snow from it?? It's awfully quiet in here!

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    Posted
  • Location: Milford Haven, Pembrokeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Milford Haven, Pembrokeshire

    I dont personally think Wales will see much apart from a few showers and the higher levels. Just my personal tuppence,lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
    27 minutes ago, whiskers said:

    This cold on the weekend ,are we expecting any snow from it?? It's awfully quiet in here!

    No Derek said ' just been on dog and bone 2 him for the last hour .

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    Posted
  • Location: Gilfach, Bargoed - SE Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Gales - active weather!!!
  • Location: Gilfach, Bargoed - SE Wales
    31 minutes ago, whiskers said:

    This cold on the weekend ,are we expecting any snow from it?? It's awfully quiet in here!

    Thst's because there is not a lot currently on the cards for us. Not an awful lot of time to change left - but pressure is on the higher side so might squeeze any shower activity to a minimum.

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